1067 Foreshore Ln · Haines City, FL 33844

$369,999

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,421 sqft · Land · 24 Days on market

Built 2026 5,505 sqft lot $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Your home at Lawson Dunes is just the beginning. The community offers a pool, playground, walking trails, and a dog park designed for everyday enjoyment. Located in Haines City with easy access to US-27 and I-4, residents stay close to local conveniences and regional destinations. Live your best life in a home designed for work, play, and everything in between. The open concept layout is elevated by luxury vinyl plank flooring, flowing seamlessly into the kitchen, which stuns with sleek quartz countertops, stainless-steel appliances and a spacious pantry. The sliding glass doors off the dining room make indoor-outdoor entertaining easy and the downstairs in-law provides

Key facts

• Spacious pantry
• Sliding glass doors
• Downstairs in-law

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• SLEEK QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• DOWNSTAIRS IN-LAW

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-550 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (26.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (33.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,478/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 1107% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $247,792 (33.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.37%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-99,460
• Equity at exit: $55,168

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-149,471
• Equity at exit: $31,991

Cash invested: $103,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,478 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$359 /mo · $4,304/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $-550

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,174

Max offer price $272,906

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-340	-5% $-445	+0% $-550	+5% $-654	+10% $-759
Rent	-10% $-745	-5% $-647	+0% $-550	+5% $-452	+10% $-354
Rate	-1.0pp $-363	-0.5pp $-456	base $-550	+0.5pp $-645	+1.0pp $-743

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,500
• Closing costs: $11,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
202 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1981	$1,905	$0.96	12d	1	0.16mi
1305 Current Pl Haines City, FL	5.0	3.5	3182	$2,950	$0.93	24d	1	0.16mi
167 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1981	$2,020	$1.02	19d	1	0.21mi
1462 Sea Glass Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2168	$2,200	$1.01	24d	1	0.22mi
1361 Current Pl Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$2,100	$1.29	24d	1	0.25mi
239 Summerlin Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2168	$2,300	$1.06	24d	1	0.27mi
117 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2099	$2,085	$0.99	24d	1	0.34mi
601 Ambleside Dr Haines City, FL	5.0	3.0	2827	$2,600	$0.92	24d	1	0.35mi
333 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,985	$1.04	12d	1	0.35mi
144 Towns Cir Haines City, FL	5.0	3.0	2712	$2,600	$0.96	24d	1	0.37mi
120 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1909	$2,020	$1.06	14d	1	0.37mi
1053 Ambleside Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,550	$1.27	24d	1	0.44mi
621 Sand Pine Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2040	$2,350	$1.15	11d	1	0.49mi
1105 Lexington Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2123	$1,995	$0.94	19d	1	0.60mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,999	$1.09	24d	1	0.65mi
2501 Merseyside Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	3.5	2320	$2,250	$0.97	24d	1	0.65mi
2203 Pigeon Plum Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1887	$2,190	$1.16	11d	1	0.67mi
1276 Tupelo Trl Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1900	$1,895	$1.00	12d	1	0.68mi
299 Bottle Brush Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,300	$1.30	24d	1	0.75mi
429 Silver Palm Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1625	$1,990	$1.22	19d	1	0.76mi
833 Ambleside Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1887	$1,950	$1.03	11d	1	0.76mi
851 Folklore Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2290	$2,195	$0.96	4d	1	0.80mi
1950 Pond Pine Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1939	$1,975	$1.02	24d	1	0.84mi
2986 Salisbury Ave Haines City, FL	5.0	3.0	2082	$2,495	$1.20	24d	1	0.86mi
219 Bottle Brush Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2420	$2,450	$1.01	24d	1	0.90mi
4746 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,095	$1.15	24d	1	0.92mi
5153 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	15d	1	0.92mi
5157 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,900	$1.38	4d	1	0.92mi
5161 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,100	$0.84	24d	1	0.93mi
4757 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2451	$2,050	$0.84	24d	1	0.93mi
600 Silver Palm Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2267	$2,800	$1.24	11d	1	0.94mi
5009 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,500	$1.36	24d	1	0.96mi
5177 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,920	$1.38	3d	1	0.98mi
5193 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,099	$1.15	24d	1	1.01mi
4813 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	24d	1	1.07mi
4034 Old Mill Rd Haines City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,400	$1.03	4d	1	1.36mi
3910 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,600	$1.23	24d	1	1.41mi
3898 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	24d	1	1.41mi
3874 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,130	$1.14	4d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   listed $369,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,304 · $359/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,304 · $359/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,735
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,726
• − Property taxes: −$4,304
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,379
• − Management: −$2,379
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$10,764
• Taxable loss: −$13,314
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,195
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Listed $369,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,304 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.