10868 White Dogwood Dr · New Kent, VA 23140

$295,295

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,972 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2011 6,403 sqft lot $150/sqft · 22% below area Est $377k · 22% under $174/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to purchase this home below assessed value. This level lot is on the corner with extra common area beside giving extra elbow room and easy access to the walking trail.

Key facts

• Level lot
• Corner lot
• 6,403 sq ft lot

Tags

• LEVEL LOT
• CORNER LOT
• EASY ACCESS TO WALKING TRAIL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $174; HOA covers association management, clubhouse, common areas, structure maintenance, pool(s), and recreation facilities; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, playground, pool, and trails/paths

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Direct access; Garage with opener; Paved driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric power
• Home design: Two-story home; PUD zoning; Resale property
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Drywall and frame construction; Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; Built as actual year (year built details available)
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Patio; Lighting; Paved driveway; Corner lot; Level lot; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric smooth cooktop / electric cooking; Granite counters; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating; Forced air; Hot water heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Dining area; Granite countertops; High ceilings; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Thermal windows; Insulated doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($495/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 1.8% in New Kent — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#230 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• New Kent County Public School District (rural): math 58% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #32 of 131 in VA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 453 units permitted in New Kent County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• New Kent County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,241 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.60%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $377,241
• List price: $295,295
• Delta: -21.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10868 White Dogwood Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,972 (0%)	0mo	$298,000	$151	100
5623 Virginia Park Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,016 (+2%)	3mo	$420,000	$208	71
10549 Villa Green Ter	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,012 (+2%)	16mo	$449,500	$223	67
5705 Hogan Bridge Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,680 (-15%)	18mo	$316,000	$188	52
5336 Villa Green Ct	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,248 (+14%)	13mo	$450,000	$200	48
10804 White Dogwood Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,680 (-15%)	20mo	$335,000	$199	47
5893 Pilmour Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,800 (-9%)	17mo	$345,000	$192	34
5801 Pilmour Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,801 (-9%)	21mo	$355,000	$197	30
5835 Pilmour Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (-12%)	14mo	$390,000	$226	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-45,195
• Equity at exit: $44,029

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-35,856
• Equity at exit: $25,532

Cash invested: $82,683 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23140

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,612 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,549
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,123/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$174
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,560

Max offer price $295,295

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $208	-5% $125	+0% $41	+5% $-42	+10% $-126
Rent	-10% $-165	-5% $-62	+0% $41	+5% $144	+10% $248
Rate	-1.0pp $190	-0.5pp $116	base $41	+0.5pp $-35	+1.0pp $-113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,824
• Closing costs: $8,859
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5847 Ginger Dr Providence Forge, VA	3.0	2.5	1913	$2,500	$1.31	45d	1	0.61mi
5870 Ginger Dr Providence Forge, VA	3.0	2.5	1621	$2,750	$1.70	18d	1	0.63mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $174 · $2,088/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Great opportunity to purchase this home below assessed value. This level lot is on the corner with extra common area beside giving extra elbow room and easy access to the walking trail.

2. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Great opportunity to purchase this home below assessed value. This level lot is on the corner with extra common area beside giving extra elbow room and easy access to the walking trail.

3. 2026-05-01
   listed $295,295 Active 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Great opportunity to purchase this home below assessed value. This level lot is on the corner with extra common area beside giving extra elbow room and easy access to the walking trail.

4. 2026-05-01
   listed $295,295 Active 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Great opportunity to purchase this home below assessed value. This level lot is on the corner with extra common area beside giving extra elbow room and easy access to the walking trail.

5. 2011-04-20
   listed $212,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,123 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,421 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: +$298/yr (+$25/mo · 14.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,541
• − Property taxes: −$2,123
• − Insurance: −$1,476
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,508
• − Management: −$2,508
• − HOA: −$2,088
• − Depreciation: −$8,590
• Taxable loss: −$4,486
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,077
• After-tax cash flow: $1,572/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Kent County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102610
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $72,460
• Composite: 57.73/100
• National rank: #1055
• State rank: #32 of 131 in VA

Livability — New Kent

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #7768

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,533

Population outlook (New Kent County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,555 people
• By 2030: 26,549 · +8.1%
• By 2040: 30,259 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 33,471 · +36.3%
• By 2075: 41,261 · +68.0%
• By 2100: 44,339 · +80.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · New Kent

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.9) · D 33.7% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -31.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.37%
• Current HPI: 171.5574
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+39.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Sold (MLS) $298,000 WMLS
• 2026-06-08 Sold (MLS) $298,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — WMLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $295,295 WMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $295,295 CVRMLS
• 2011-04-20 Listed $212,990 WMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,123 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.