41652 Hwy 93 Frontage Rd #3 · Pablo, MT 59864

$44,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 448 sqft · Manufactured · 529 Days on market

Built 2013 $440/mo HOA · 30% of rent ↓ 47% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Key facts

• Built 2013
• Listed 529 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Level topography; Zoned residential
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $440 monthly fee; HOA fee includes sewer

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Residential property; Updated/remodeled condition
• Construction: Wood siding; Asphalt roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Level lot; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Forced air heating; Wall furnace; Wall-mounted cooling unit
• Interior features: Dryer, Dishwasher, Disposal, Microwave, Range, Refrigerator, Washer; Updated/remodeled interior; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $356 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#296 in MT) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: housing D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Ronan H S (rural): math 15% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #252 of 339 in MT (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 529 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 529 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.34%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $15,741
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.52×
• Total profit: $44,269
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59864

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,485 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $674/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$440
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,034

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $387	-5% $372	+0% $356	+5% $341	+10% $325
Rent	-10% $239	-5% $297	+0% $356	+5% $415	+10% $473
Rate	-1.0pp $379	-0.5pp $368	base $356	+0.5pp $345	+1.0pp $333

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $440 · $5,280/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $44,900 Active 529 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,900 Active 527 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,900 Active 526 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,900 Active 525 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,900 Active 524 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,900 Active 522 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $44,900 Active 521 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,900 Active 518 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,900 Active 517 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,900 Active 516 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $44,900 Active 514 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $44,900 Active 512 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,900 Active 511 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,900 Active 510 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,900 Active 509 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    price $44,900
17. 2026-04-13
    price $47,495
18. 2025-10-20
    price $49,900
19. 2025-07-01
    price $59,900
20. 2025-06-09
    price $64,900
21. 2025-04-29
    price $69,900
22. 2025-04-04
    price $74,900
23. 2025-01-07
    listed $84,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$674
• − Insurance: −$1,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,425
• − Management: −$1,425
• − HOA: −$5,280
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $4,169
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,000
• After-tax cash flow: $3,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ronan H S
• NCES district ID: 3022800
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $36,640
• Composite: 23.78/100
• National rank: #13226
• State rank: #252 of 339 in MT

Livability — Pablo

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #296
• US rank: #23720

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pablo, MT
• City population: 430
• Population (ZIP): 7,399

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,614 people
• By 2030: 30,774 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 30,830 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 31,195 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 33,748 · +10.2%
• By 2100: 35,779 · +16.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Native American 35% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.5% · R 58.4% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.9pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+14.5 2016: R+21.3 2012: R+10.4 2008: D+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.97%
• Current HPI: 275.309
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-46.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $44,900 MRMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $47,495 MRMLS
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $49,900 MRMLS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $59,900 MRMLS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $64,900 MRMLS
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $69,900 MRMLS
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $74,900 MRMLS
• 2025-01-07 Listed $84,000 MRMLS