14364 N Bay St · Mercer, MO 64661

$51,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 616 sqft · Other public records · 352 Days on market

Built 1910 5,662 sqft lot $84/sqft · 18% below area Est $63k · 18% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice 1 bed 1 bath home with many updates located in quiet neighborhood. This charming, turn-key home has recently been painted, and remodeled. The windows and roof are new within the last 3 years, and the bathroom is brand new. The kitchen walks out to the back deck, which is mostly shaded and perfect for BBQing. If you are looking for the perfect starter home or retirement home that needs nothing, here it is! Don't miss out on this affordable home that has a lot to offer!

Key facts

• Remodeled kitchen
• Back deck
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW ROOF
• BACK DECK
• REMODELED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $52k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($778 rent vs $52k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#423 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• North Mercer County R-III (rural): math 35% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #273 of 535 in MO (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($356 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Mercer County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 352 days — a 12% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $45,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 352 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.88%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $62,895
• List price: $51,500
• Delta: -18.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $25,994
• Equity at exit: $23,157

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.49×
• Total profit: $64,754
• Equity at exit: $35,687

Cash invested: $14,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64661

• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $778 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$270
• Tax from tax record: −$12 /mo · $145/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$163
• Net cashflow: $311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $384

Max offer price $51,500

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $340	-5% $326	+0% $311	+5% $296	+10% $282
Rent	-10% $250	-5% $280	+0% $311	+5% $342	+10% $373
Rate	-1.0pp $337	-0.5pp $324	base $311	+0.5pp $298	+1.0pp $284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,875
• Closing costs: $1,545
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $51,500 Active 352 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $51,500 Active 350 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $51,500 Active 349 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $51,500 Active 348 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $51,500 Active 347 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $51,500 Active 345 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $51,500 Active 344 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $51,500 Active 341 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $51,500 Active 340 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $51,500 Active 339 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $51,500 Active 338 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $51,500 Active 335 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $51,500 Active 334 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $51,500 Active 333 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $51,500 Active 332 DOM
16. 2025-10-30
    price $51,500 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    Very nice 1 bed 1 bath home with many updates located in quiet neighborhood. This charming, turn-key home has recently been painted, and remodeled. The windows and roof are new within the last 3 years, and the bathroom is brand new. The kitchen walks out to the back deck, which is mostly shaded and perfect for BBQing. If you are looking for the perfect starter home or retirement home that needs nothing, here it is! Don't miss out on this affordable home that has a lot to offer!

17. 2025-07-03
    listed $56,500 Active 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    Very nice 1 bed 1 bath home with many updates located in quiet neighborhood. This charming, turn-key home has recently been painted, and remodeled. The windows and roof are new within the last 3 years, and the bathroom is brand new. The kitchen walks out to the back deck, which is mostly shaded and perfect for BBQing. If you are looking for the perfect starter home or retirement home that needs nothing, here it is! Don't miss out on this affordable home that has a lot to offer!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $145 · $12/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $500 · $42/mo
• Expected delta: +$355/yr (+$30/mo · 245.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,336
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,885
• − Property taxes: −$145
• − Insurance: −$258
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$747
• − Management: −$747
• − Depreciation: −$1,498
• Taxable income: $3,057
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$734
• After-tax cash flow: $2,999/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Mercer County R-III
• NCES district ID: 2920750
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,155
• Composite: 37.44/100
• National rank: #8906
• State rank: #273 of 535 in MO

Livability — Mercer

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #423
• US rank: #17528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mercer, MO
• Population (ZIP): 762

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,512 people
• By 2030: 3,383 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 3,134 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 2,894 · -17.6%
• By 2075: 2,397 · -31.7%
• By 2100: 1,787 · -49.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.1) · D 13.1% · R 86.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.9pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -73.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.1 2020: R+74.1 2016: R+73.0 2012: R+54.5 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $51,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-03 Listed $56,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $145 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.