12851 N Meadview Way · Oro Valley, AZ 85755

$389,900

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,358 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1990 7,710 sqft lot $116/sqft · 30% below area Est $557k · 30% under $32/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two story home with a finished basement and private swimming pool.

Key facts

• Finished basement
• 7,710 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FINISHED BASEMENT
• PRIVATE SWIMMING POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $363 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $370k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $355k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.2% in Oro Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#2 in AZ, #1,339 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, cost of living D-.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 32y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $354,809 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.99%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $557,370
• List price: $389,900
• Delta: -30.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12734 N Pioneer Way	0.31mi	5/3.0	3,130 (-7%)	1mo	$630,000	$201	69
94 E Brookdale Way	0.26mi	5/3.0	3,104 (-8%)	2mo	$650,000	$209	69
12510 N Piping Rock Rd	0.60mi	5/3.5	3,311 (-1%)	3mo	$835,000	$252	65
12654 N Vistoso View Pl	0.28mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,531 (+5%)	4mo	$1,000,000	$283	64
12450 N Copper Queen Way	0.50mi	5/2.5	3,209 (-4%)	0mo	$637,200	$199	63
12834 N Lantern Way	0.17mi	5/3.0	2,908 (-13%)	6mo	$599,900	$206	60
13258 N Pioneer Way	0.51mi	5/2.5	3,540 (+5%)	1mo	$650,000	$184	60
12932 N Pioneer Way	0.22mi	5/3.0	2,908 (-13%)	7mo	$679,500	$234	57
12410 N Forest Lake Way	0.55mi	5/3.5	2,942 (-12%)	0mo	$647,000	$220	51
250 W Milbrae Springs Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,914 (-13%)	6mo	$595,000	$204	48
12403 N Echo Valley Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,032 (-10%)	5mo	$610,000	$201	38
12370 N Copper Queen Way	0.61mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,944 (-12%)	4mo	$645,000	$219	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-40,074
• Equity at exit: $58,135

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-5,219
• Equity at exit: $33,711

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85755

• Home prices YoY: -20.4%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,698 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$319 /mo · $3,832/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$777
• Net cashflow: $363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,239

Max offer price $389,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12884 N Pioneer Way Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.5	2448	$4,500	$1.84	3d	1	0.24mi
12825 N Mystic View Pl Oro Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2965	$3,300	$1.11	23d	1	0.29mi
12949 N Desert Olive Dr Oro Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2784	$2,526	$0.91	43d	1	0.69mi
12936 N Salt Cedar Dr Tucson, AZ	5.0	2.5	2750	$2,600	$0.95	43d	1	0.74mi
13391 N Flaxleaf Pl Tucson, AZ	4.0	3.0	2663	$2,500	$0.94	43d	1	1.05mi
13914 N Flaxleaf Pl Oro Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2663	$2,650	$1.00	43d	1	1.18mi
12129 N Tall Grass Dr Oro Valley, AZ	5.0	3.0	3480	$3,900	$1.12	23d	1	1.24mi
13323 N Barlassina Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	3.0	2321	$2,295	$0.99	43d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,900 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,900 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,900 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,900 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,900 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $389,900 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $389,900 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $389,900 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $389,900 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $389,900 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $419,900 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $419,900 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $419,900 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $419,900 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-04-13
    price $419,900 66-char remark

    Show marketing remark (66 chars)

    Two story home with a finished basement and private swimming pool.

16. 2026-02-25
    listed $439,900 Active 66-char remark

    Show marketing remark (66 chars)

    Two story home with a finished basement and private swimming pool.

17. 2026-01-08
    status Pending
18. 2026-01-08
    historical
19. 2025-11-24
    listed $1 Active
20. 2025-10-16
    historical
21. 2025-08-12
    price $465,000
22. 2025-05-15
    listed $485,000 Active
23. 2022-05-31
    status Pending
24. 2022-05-19
    soldstatus $515,000 Closed
25. 2022-05-19
    soldstatus $515,000
26. 2022-04-17
    historical Active Contingent
27. 2022-04-07
    price $510,000
28. 2022-03-28
    status Active
29. 2022-03-17
    historical Active Contingent
30. 2022-03-03
    status Active
31. 2022-02-11
    historical Active Contingent
32. 2022-01-20
    listed $520,000 Active
33. 2021-11-17
    soldstatus $491,700
34. 2005-08-31
    soldstatus $349,900
35. 2005-08-29
    soldstatus $349,900
36. 2005-07-15
    listed $349,900
37. 1995-03-24
    soldstatus $190,000
38. 1995-03-23
    soldstatus $190,000
39. 1994-08-25
    historical
40. 1994-06-15
    listed $195,000
41. 1994-02-25
    listed $199,999
42. 1990-11-01
    soldstatus $163,529
43. 1989-10-01
    soldstatus $480,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,832 · $319/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,832 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥104°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$3,832
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,550
• − Management: −$3,550
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable loss: −$2,069
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$497
• After-tax cash flow: $4,855/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amphitheater Unified District (4406)
• NCES district ID: 0400680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,524
• Composite: 30.82/100
• National rank: #6135
• State rank: #85 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Oro Valley

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #1339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oro Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 41,345
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 18,560
• Household income: $113,831
• Rent vs Own: 10.4% rent · 89.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 211.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.99%
• Current HPI: 254.1505
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-12.6% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $419,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-25 Listed $439,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-08 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-08 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-24 Listed $1 MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-16 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $465,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-05-15 Listed $485,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-05-31 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2022-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $515,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-19 Sold (MLS) $515,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-04-17 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2022-04-07 Price Changed $510,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-03-28 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2022-03-17 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2022-03-03 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2022-02-11 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2022-01-20 Listed $520,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $491,700 Public Records
• 2005-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $349,900 Public Records
• 2005-08-29 Sold (MLS) $349,900 MLSSAZ
• 2005-07-15 Listed $349,900 MLSSAZ
• 1995-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 1995-03-23 Sold (MLS) $190,000 MLSSAZ
• 1994-08-25 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 1994-06-15 Listed $195,000 MLSSAZ
• 1994-02-25 Listed $199,999 MLSSAZ
• 1990-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $163,529 Public Records
• 1989-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $480,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,832 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.