405 Elaine Valley Dr · Katy, TX 77493

$280,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,586 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 6,324 sqft lot $108/sqft · 19% below area Est $345k · 19% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home to Freeman Ranch one of Katy's latest subdivisions. Looking for a nice neighborhood? You have it here! Looking for something outside the city but still close enough to commute to work? You have it here! This 5 bedroom 2 1/2 bath home is waiting for you! Donned with generously portioned bedrooms, 2 living areas, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, WATER SOFTENER and a tankless water heater! From your close by kitchen grab your adult beverage and retreat to your primary en-suite bath area to enjoy your soaker tub and soak your day away! OH! Separate shower too! When going out to the back yard you will see the potential the back yard has for your possible outdoor oasis! HUGE LOT! Low taxes and HOA

Key facts

• Separate shower
• Soaker tub
• Huge lot

Tags

• SOAKER TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• HUGE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• Recommended offer: $272k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.70%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $344,581
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -18.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 Elaine Valley Dr	0.00mi	5/2.5	2,586 (0%)	1mo	$280,000	$108	99
5707 Blue Grama Dr	0.09mi	5/3.0	2,439 (-6%)	21mo	$358,990	$147	67
5734 Quest Valley Dr	0.09mi	5/3.0	2,439 (-6%)	22mo	$359,990	$148	66
217 Elm Patch Dr	0.68mi	5/2.5	2,663 (+3%)	1mo	$300,000	$113	62
1017 Misty Patch Dr	0.70mi	5/2.5	2,586 (0%)	10mo	$270,000	$104	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-43,162
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-57,915
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2696
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,176 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$719 /mo · $8,629/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$667
• Net cashflow: $176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,953

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $335	-5% $256	+0% $176	+5% $97	+10% $18
Rent	-10% $-75	-5% $51	+0% $176	+5% $302	+10% $427
Rate	-1.0pp $317	-0.5pp $247	base $176	+0.5pp $104	+1.0pp $30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	13d	1	0.98mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	25d	1	1.02mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	25d	1	1.04mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	13d	1	1.05mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	13d	1	1.05mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	4d	1	1.18mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	44d	1	1.18mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,762	$1.28	11d	1	1.18mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	15d	1	1.24mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	25d	1	1.28mi
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,550	$1.12	22d	1	1.28mi
3060 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	6.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	25d	1	1.30mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	13d	1	1.31mi
3025 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	6.0	2.5	2480	$3,798	$1.53	5d	1	1.32mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	25d	1	1.34mi
3013 Pearl Coastline Ln Katy, TX	6.0	2.5	2480	$3,995	$1.61	25d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   Welcome Home to Freeman Ranch one of Katy's latest subdivisions. Looking for a nice neighborhood? You have it here! Looking for something outside the city but still close enough to commute to work? You have it here! This 5 bedroom 2 1/2 bath home is waiting for you! Donned with generously portioned bedrooms, 2 living areas, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, WATER SOFTENER and a tankless water heater! From your close by kitchen grab your adult beverage and retreat to your primary en-suite bath area to enjoy your soaker tub and soak your day away! OH! Separate shower too! When going out to the back yard you will see the potential the back yard has for your possible outdoor oasis! HUGE LOT! Low taxes and HOA

2. 2026-04-15
   price $280,000 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   Welcome Home to Freeman Ranch one of Katy's latest subdivisions. Looking for a nice neighborhood? You have it here! Looking for something outside the city but still close enough to commute to work? You have it here! This 5 bedroom 2 1/2 bath home is waiting for you! Donned with generously portioned bedrooms, 2 living areas, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, WATER SOFTENER and a tankless water heater! From your close by kitchen grab your adult beverage and retreat to your primary en-suite bath area to enjoy your soaker tub and soak your day away! OH! Separate shower too! When going out to the back yard you will see the potential the back yard has for your possible outdoor oasis! HUGE LOT! Low taxes and HOA

3. 2026-04-01
   listed $290,000 Active 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   Welcome Home to Freeman Ranch one of Katy's latest subdivisions. Looking for a nice neighborhood? You have it here! Looking for something outside the city but still close enough to commute to work? You have it here! This 5 bedroom 2 1/2 bath home is waiting for you! Donned with generously portioned bedrooms, 2 living areas, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, WATER SOFTENER and a tankless water heater! From your close by kitchen grab your adult beverage and retreat to your primary en-suite bath area to enjoy your soaker tub and soak your day away! OH! Separate shower too! When going out to the back yard you will see the potential the back yard has for your possible outdoor oasis! HUGE LOT! Low taxes and HOA

4. 2025-03-24
   historical
5. 2025-01-18
   listed $410,000 Active
6. 2022-07-01
   soldstatus Sold
7. 2022-06-01
   status Pending
8. 2022-06-01
   status Active
9. 2022-06-01
   status Pending
10. 2022-04-29
    price $374,900
11. 2022-04-29
    status Active
12. 2022-03-15
    historical
13. 2022-02-24
    listed $364,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,629 · $719/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,629 · $719/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$8,629
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,049
• − Management: −$3,049
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$2,189
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$525
• After-tax cash flow: $2,640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in Freeman Ranch, Katy, TX, is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and modernization.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Both Replace water softener — Improves water quality and adds value to the property.
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Replace water softener — Improves water quality and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-18 Listed $410,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-06-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-06-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-06-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-04-29 Price Changed $374,900 HARMLS
• 2022-04-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-03-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-02-24 Listed $364,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+153.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,629 · -9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.