19044 Joshua St · Adelanto, CA 92301

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,810 sqft · Manufactured public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1980 7,684 sqft lot Est $367k · 32% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Value Home! This home features over 1800 SF for just $160,000! Walk into a huge open floor plan with 2 separate living spaces! There is beautiful laminate floor throughout the house. Cannot forget about the over sized master closet and the soaker tub in the master bathroom. .. You have to see it all for yourself!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Private primary bath
• Large yard

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY CLOSET
• PRIVATE PRIMARY BATH
• SOAKER TUB
• LARGE YARD
• EXPANSIVE PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Single dwelling unit (1 total unit)
• Financial info: Assessments: Unknown
• HOA & community: Community described as valley

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered garage space; 2 uncovered parking spaces (3 total); Driveway
• Utilities: Public/district water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story; Entry on the front
• Construction: No ADU; Year built source: Other; No common walls
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; No pool; Lot is level/flat; 0–1 unit per acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Eating area
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: One-level home; Front entry; Has view; Main level has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.2% in Adelanto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,250 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Victor Valley Union High (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #407 of 517 in CA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 631 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $250k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.55%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $367,430
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19040 Dennis St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,601 (-12%)	8mo	$275,000	$172	71
18719 Arbor Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,725 (-5%)	22mo	$350,000	$203	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $149,459
• Equity at exit: $225,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.30×
• Total profit: $441,018
• Equity at exit: $485,695

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92301

• Home prices YoY: 10.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 631
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,247 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,531/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,058

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $290	-5% $219	+0% $149	+5% $78	+10% $7
Rent	-10% $-29	-5% $60	+0% $149	+5% $237	+10% $326
Rate	-1.0pp $275	-0.5pp $212	base $149	+0.5pp $84	+1.0pp $18

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $250,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-05-05
   status Pending Sale
3. 2026-04-05
   price $250,000
4. 2026-04-03
   status Active
5. 2026-03-13
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2026-02-24
   price $270,000
7. 2025-12-17
   listed $285,000 Active
8. 2021-11-25
   historical
9. 2019-03-19
   soldstatus $160,000 Closed Sale 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   Great Value Home! This home features over 1800 SF for just $160,000! Walk into a huge open floor plan with 2 separate living spaces! There is beautiful laminate floor throughout the house. Cannot forget about the over sized master closet and the soaker tub in the master bathroom. .. You have to see it all for yourself!

10. 2019-03-19
    soldstatus $160,000

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Great Value Home! This home features over 1800 SF for just $160,000! Walk into a huge open floor plan with 2 separate living spaces! There is beautiful laminate floor throughout the house. Cannot forget about the over sized master closet and the soaker tub in the master bathroom. .. You have to see it all for yourself!

11. 2019-03-18
    soldstatus $160,000
12. 2019-02-06
    status Pending Sale 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Great Value Home! This home features over 1800 SF for just $160,000! Walk into a huge open floor plan with 2 separate living spaces! There is beautiful laminate floor throughout the house. Cannot forget about the over sized master closet and the soaker tub in the master bathroom. .. You have to see it all for yourself!

13. 2018-12-08
    listed $160,000 Active 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Great Value Home! This home features over 1800 SF for just $160,000! Walk into a huge open floor plan with 2 separate living spaces! There is beautiful laminate floor throughout the house. Cannot forget about the over sized master closet and the soaker tub in the master bathroom. .. You have to see it all for yourself!

14. 2018-12-08
    listed $160,000

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Great Value Home! This home features over 1800 SF for just $160,000! Walk into a huge open floor plan with 2 separate living spaces! There is beautiful laminate floor throughout the house. Cannot forget about the over sized master closet and the soaker tub in the master bathroom. .. You have to see it all for yourself!

15. 2018-10-31
    historical
16. 2016-07-14
    listed $124,900
17. 2016-07-14
    listed $124,900
18. 2016-07-08
    historical
19. 2016-07-08
    historical
20. 2016-05-18
    price $129,000
21. 2016-04-15
    listed $135,000 Active
22. 2016-04-08
    listed $129,000
23. 2016-01-27
    soldstatus $67,000
24. 2015-12-14
    listed $67,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,531 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,531 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥99°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,531
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,157
• − Management: −$2,157
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$2,412
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$579
• After-tax cash flow: $2,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victor Valley Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636972
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $45,112
• Composite: 21.6/100
• National rank: #8296
• State rank: #407 of 517 in CA

Livability — Adelanto

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #1250
• US rank: #26338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Adelanto, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 38,577
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,577
• Household income: $68,676
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1345.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Two or more races 34% Black 15% White 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 46%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.09%
• Current HPI: 453.6071
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.68%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+273.1% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-04-05 Price Changed $250,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-03-13 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $270,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $285,000 CRMLS
• 2021-11-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2019-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-19 Sold (MLS) $160,000 CRMLS
• 2019-03-18 Sold (MLS) $160,000 CRMLS
• 2019-02-06 Pending — CRMLS
• 2018-12-08 Listed $160,000 CRMLS
• 2018-12-08 Listed $160,000 CRMLS
• 2018-10-31 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2016-07-14 Listed $124,900 SDMLS
• 2016-07-14 Listed $124,900 CRMLS
• 2016-07-08 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2016-07-08 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2016-05-18 Price Changed $129,000 CRMLS
• 2016-04-15 Listed $135,000 CRMLS
• 2016-04-08 Listed $129,000 CRMLS
• 2016-01-27 Sold (MLS) $67,000 CRMLS
• 2015-12-14 Listed $67,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,531 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.