Is 102 Brunson Cir in Guyton, GA a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 5.4% cap rate and $-201/mo modeled cash flow at a $239,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 102 Brunson Cir?

The modeled cap rate is 5.4% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,347/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

D- Composite 37.98

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +9.3/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Schools +5.1/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
1% rule +3.5/10.0
Livability +3.5/5.0
DSCR +2.6/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$239,990

102 Brunson Cir · Guyton, GA 31312

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,470 sqft · Townhouse · 150 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2,178 sqft lot Garage $154/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

A townhome at Brunson Station Townhomes with a pool, sports courts, and easy access to dining and entertainment. This Amara spans two levels with 1,450 square feet, three bedrooms, two full baths, a powder room, and a one-car front-load garage. The main level connects the kitchen, dining area, and family room in an open layout, with white laminate cabinetry, Frost White quartz countertops, and GE stainless appliances set over vinyl plank flooring in a warm beige tone. The kitchen features a deep single-basin sink and a center island with pendant lighting overhead. The powder room sits just off the main living area near the base of the stairs. Upstairs, two secondary bedrooms share a full bath with a tub-shower combo and flank a central laundry area tucked behind double doors, while the primary suite at the far end offers a walk-in closet and its own bath finished in Bianca Carrara quartz with a double vanity. Birdbath carpet runs through all bedrooms and up the stairs. Inside, you will find: GE stainless side-by-side refrigerator included GE stacked washer and dryer with pedestals LED lighting in the kitchen Garage door opener with remote included Oxford Blue siding with Colonial White trim and a Web Gray front door Move-in ready and waiting. Schedule your tour of the Amara today.

Key facts

Open airy layout
Quartz countertops
Community amenities

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-201 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (2.2% below list).
Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

Location reads 69/100 on livability (#128 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Effingham County (rural): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #16 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Marlow Elementary School (math 63% / reading 50%, grade C+, #159 of 1,228 statewide, top 13%, 775 students, 31% FRL); South Effingham Middle School (math 51% / reading 58%, grade B-, #52 of 470 statewide, top 11%, 1,097 students, 32% FRL); South Effingham High School (math 33% / reading 27%, grade F, #135 of 424 statewide, top 32%, 1,888 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 549 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 836 units permitted in Effingham County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Effingham County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,191 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.85% ✗
Cap rate: 5.42%
Cash-on-cash: -3.13%
DSCR: 0.86
GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $274,990
List price: $239,990
Delta: -12.73%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 Brunson Cir	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$274,990	$187	94
115 Principal Way	1.13mi	3/2.0	1,518 (+3%)	4mo	$330,000	$217	54
138 Hawthorne Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,833 (+25%)	6mo	$275,000	$150	50
255 Caribbean Village Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,594 (+8%)	2mo	$305,000	$191	48
143 Twin Oak Cir	1.38mi	3/2.0	1,593 (+8%)	2mo	$447,000	$281	48
146 Butternut Ct	1.24mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+9%)	3mo	$304,000	$190	46
112 Cotton Bluff Ct	1.21mi	3/2.0	1,599 (+9%)	4mo	$310,000	$194	45
804 Hyacinth Cir	0.98mi	3/2.0	1,613 (+10%)	2mo	$340,000	$211	45
834 Hyacinth Cir	1.08mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-11%)	5mo	$265,000	$204	40
428 Pecan Ln	0.84mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-18%)	2mo	$178,500	$149	36
109 Barbados Cir	0.97mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,768 (+20%)	3mo	$300,000	$170	31
105 Nevis Rd	0.90mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (+21%)	5mo	$289,000	$163	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -21.5%
Equity multiple: 0.26×
Total profit: $-57,203
Equity at exit: $41,002

10-year hold

IRR: -15.0%
Equity multiple: 0.15×
Total profit: $-65,729
Equity at exit: $23,776

Cash invested: $76,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 12 active · 3 under contract
Months of supply: 72.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $259,990 ($177/sqft)
Median days on market: 13 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +5.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31312

Home prices YoY: -26.6%
Active inventory: 549
Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,347 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
Insurance: −$115
HOA: −$154
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
Net cashflow: $-201

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,600

Max offer price $245,971

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-11	-5% $-106	+0% $-201	+5% $-296	+10% $-391
Rent	-10% $-386	-5% $-293	+0% $-201	+5% $-108	+10% $-15
Rate	-1.0pp $-62	-0.5pp $-131	base $-201	+0.5pp $-272	+1.0pp $-344

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $68,748
Closing costs: $8,250
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
268 Caribbean Village Dr Guyton, GA	3.0	2.0	1594	$2,275	$1.43	6d	1	0.67mi
121 Caribbean Village Dr Guyton, GA	3.0	2.0	1511	$2,250	$1.49	6d	1	0.77mi
521 Amsonia Cir Guyton, GA	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,105	$1.37	4d	1	0.94mi
105 Creekside Blvd Guyton, GA	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1698	$1,999	$1.18	0d	17	1.05mi
215 Bellflower Cir Guyton, GA	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,310	$1.30	6d	1	1.19mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: New construction status notedRoad directions available
HOA & community: Homeowners associationAnnual association fee of $1,844 (about $153.67/month)Community amenities: pool and tennis courtsSubdivision: Brunson Station

Exterior

Parking: Attached garageOne garage spaceOff-street parkingKitchen-level parking
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerCable availableUnderground utilities
Home design: TownhouseNew construction2 storiesAttached property with 2+ common wallsBuilder: Stanley Martin Homes — Model: The Amara
Construction: Vinyl sidingWood sidingAsphalt roofSlab foundationHome warranty included
Exterior features: Community poolTennis courtsPaved roadHas view

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveOvenRangeRefrigeratorKitchen island
Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroomOne main-level bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central air (electric)Electric heatingForced airHeat pump
Interior features: Double vanityKitchen island
Laundry & utility: WasherDryerElectric water heaterLaundry room on upper level

HOA detail $154/mo · $1,848/yr

Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $239,990 Active 150 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $239,990 Active 149 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $239,990 Active 148 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $239,990 Active 147 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $239,990 Active 146 DOM
2026-09-18

pricedays on market $239,990 Active 144 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $244,990 Active 143 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $244,990 Active 142 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $244,990 Active 141 DOM
2026-09-15

price $244,990 Active 140 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $249,990 Active 140 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $249,990 Active 139 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $249,990 Active 138 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $249,990 Active 137 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $249,990 Active 131 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $249,990 Active 130 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $249,990 Active 129 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $249,990 Active 126 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $249,990 Active 125 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $249,990 Active 124 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $249,990 Active 123 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $249,990 Active 122 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $249,990 Active 121 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $249,990 Active 120 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $249,990 Active 119 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $249,990 Active 118 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $249,990 Active 117 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $249,990 Active 116 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $249,990 Active 115 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $249,990 Active 114 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $249,990 Active 113 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $249,990 Active 112 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $249,990 Active 111 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $249,990 Active 110 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $249,990 Active 109 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $249,990 Active 108 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $249,990 Active 107 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $249,990 Active 106 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $249,990 Active 105 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $249,990 Active 104 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $249,990 Active 103 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $249,990 Active 102 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $249,990 Active 101 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $249,990 Active 100 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $249,990 Active 99 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $249,990 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $249,990 Active 95 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $249,990 Active 94 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $249,990 Active 93 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $249,990 Active 91 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $28,160
− Mortgage interest: −$15,404
− Property taxes: −$4,125
− Insurance: −$1,375
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,253
− Management: −$2,253
− HOA: −$1,848
− Depreciation: −$8,000
Taxable loss: −$7,097

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,703
After-tax cash flow: $-703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This townhome is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a move-in-ready appearance. It offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Both Smart home integration — Improves convenience and marketability ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary South Effingham Elementary School B+ GA #76/1,228 Nat'l #4,272/41,679 Middle South Effingham Middle School B- GA #52/470 Nat'l #2,564/14,009 High South Effingham High School F GA #135/424 Nat'l #10,947/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Effingham County
NCES district ID: 1301980
Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $60,503
Composite: 42.56/100
National rank: #3195
State rank: #16 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Guyton

Score: 69/100
State rank: #128
US rank: #9058

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Effingham County · 67,399 people
City population: 25,991
Metro: Savannah, GA
Population (ZIP): 25,991
Household income: $101,750
Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

Population outlook (Effingham County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 67,399 people
By 2030: 72,297 · +7.3%
By 2040: 81,602 · +21.1%
By 2050: 89,494 · +32.8%
By 2075: 105,976 · +57.2%
By 2100: 111,943 · +66.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Effingham

2024 margin: Solid R (+49.1) · D 25.2% · R 74.3%
2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: -50.7pp · 2024: -49.1pp
All cycles: 2024: R+49.1 2020: R+49.5 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+50.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
Current HPI: 205.9899
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Savannah, GA
State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
#203 WestRock Atlanta $19.3B #346 Graphic Packaging Holding Atlanta $9.4B
Retail	1	$160B
#24 Home Depot Atlanta $159.5B
Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
#47 United Parcel Service Atlanta $91.1B
Airlines	1	$62B
#70 Delta Air Lines Atlanta $61.6B
Consumer Goods	1	$47B
#97 Coca-Cola Atlanta $47.1B
Utilities	1	$25B
#147 Southern Company Atlanta $24.9B

Price history

-13.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

2026-06-18 Price Changed $249,990 Hive MLS
2026-06-18 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
2026-05-20 Price Changed $264,990 Zillow
2026-05-19 Price Changed $264,990 Hive MLS
2026-05-08 Listed $284,990 Zillow
2026-04-27 Listed $284,990 Hive MLS
2026-04-27 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
2026-04-23 Price Changed $284,990 Hive MLS
2026-04-11 Listed $289,990 Hive MLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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