21 Travellers Cir · Montross, VA 22520

$359,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,496 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1997 1.06 ac lot Est $691k · 48% under $46/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious corner lot home on almost 1acre in great waterfront community with many amenities. Potomac Pier/Boat Ramp, Independence Lake Pier/Boat Ramp, Tennis, Sand Beaches, Club House and Pool. The home has 3 Bedrooms, 2,5 Bathrooms, LV, Family room and Den, Sep. Laundry room and Huge Garage. 2 Sheds (shed on the right conveys as is).

Key facts

• Two combined lots
• Clubhouse
• Pickleball courts

Tags

• TWO COMBINED LOTS
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• CLUBHOUSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• PICKLEBALL COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Stratford Harbour; Zoning: R2; Lot size approximately 1.06 acres
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $550 (about $45.83/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Non-waterfront residential; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 8 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Cooling with ceiling fans
• Interior features: Vinyl and carpet flooring; Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $552 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $360k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.2% in Montross — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#353 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A-, housing A-, cost of living B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Westmoreland County Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #105 of 131 in VA (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 220 units permitted in Westmoreland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westmoreland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; list at $360k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $359,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.57%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $691,392
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
114 Dragoon Dr	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,840 (+14%)	5mo	$299,900	$106	64
1092 S Independence Dr	0.25mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,280 (-9%)	4mo	$329,999	$145	64
88 Colonial Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,496 (0%)	15mo	$735,000	$294	58
1329 N Independence Dr	0.69mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,636 (+6%)	13mo	$729,900	$277	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-23,229
• Equity at exit: $53,662

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $24,775
• Equity at exit: $31,118

Cash invested: $100,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22520

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,504/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$756
• Net cashflow: $552

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,901

Max offer price $359,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,975
• Closing costs: $10,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1355 N Independence Dr Montross, VA	4.0	3.5	2225	$3,600	$1.62	43d	1	0.73mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $359,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $359,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,504 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,951 · $246/mo
• Expected delta: +$447/yr (+$37/mo · 17.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,160
• − Property taxes: −$2,504
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,456
• − Management: −$3,456
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$10,470
• Taxable income: $802
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$193
• After-tax cash flow: $6,431/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westmoreland County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103980
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -47.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,665
• Composite: 39.94/100
• National rank: #3845
• State rank: #105 of 131 in VA

Livability — Montross

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #353
• US rank: #14197

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,014

Population outlook (Westmoreland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,643 people
• By 2030: 17,520 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 17,041 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 16,397 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 15,012 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 12,917 · -26.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 23% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Westmoreland

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 42.4% · R 56.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.3 2012: D+0.5 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.09%
• Current HPI: 155.4326
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+28.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $359,900 NNAR
• 2012-01-05 Delisted — MRIS
• 2011-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2011-12-21 Sold (MLS) $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-12-21 Sold (MLS) $210,000 MRIS
• 2011-09-27 Pending — MRIS
• 2011-09-27 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-07-21 Price Changed $201,500 MRIS
• 2011-07-07 Relisted — MRIS
• 2011-07-07 Price Changed $179,000 MRIS
• 2011-06-17 Delisted — MRIS
• 2011-06-15 Relisted — MRIS
• 2011-03-16 Pending — MRIS
• 2011-02-24 Price Changed $189,000 MRIS
• 2011-01-02 Listed $249,900 MRIS
• 2011-01-01 Listed $201,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $281,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-24 Sold (MLS) $281,000 MRIS
• 2006-04-10 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-10-28 Listed $279,900 MRIS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,504 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.