Is The McGinnis Plan in Dallas, GA a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.8% cap rate and $-427/mo modeled cash flow at a $347,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for The McGinnis Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.8% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,541/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 32.42

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +7.6/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.3/5.0
Schools +3.2/10.0
Rent growth +3.0/5.0
1% rule +2.2/10.0
DSCR +1.7/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$347,900

The McGinnis Plan · Dallas, GA 30132

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,372 sqft · SingleFamily · 103 Days on market

Good condition

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

The McGinnis is a two-story plan with a welcoming wide entry leading to a traditional dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen and family room live to the rear of the home, with convenient access to the yard. Upstairs, you'll find the spacious owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets. A large secondary bathroom and ample laundry room are located off the open loft. For flexible living, a study or fifth bedroom and full bath are optional on the first floor.

Key facts

Access to the yard
Walk-in closets
Wide entry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $348k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-427 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (16.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (27.0% below list).
Recommended offer: $254k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 4.0% in Dallas — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

Location reads 66/100 on livability (#192 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
Paulding County (suburban): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #33 of 174 in GA (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Northside Elementary School (math 30% / reading 28%, grade F, #663 of 1,228 statewide, top 54%, 644 students, 50% FRL); Lena Mae Moses Middle School (math 38% / reading 53%, grade D+, #97 of 470 statewide, top 22%, 907 students, 42% FRL); East Paulding High School (math 11% / reading 31%, grade F, #225 of 424 statewide, top 54%, 1,905 students, 38% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 841 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 41d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,458 units permitted in Paulding County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Paulding County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($317k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,109 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.72% ✗
Cap rate: 4.84%
Cash-on-cash: -5.19%
DSCR: 0.77
GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $352,207
List price: $347,900
Delta: -1.22%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
160 Trotter Way	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,311 (-3%)	3mo	$315,000	$136	71
16 Riders Rdg	0.32mi	4/2.5	2,203 (-7%)	2mo	$329,000	$149	71
70 Stallion Run	0.29mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,418 (+2%)	9mo	$334,000	$138	69
216 Stallion Run	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,246 (-5%)	0mo	$315,000	$140	68
70 Steeple Chase Trl	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,429 (+2%)	14mo	$355,000	$146	67
865 Saddle Brooke Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,377 (+0%)	14mo	$345,000	$145	67
55 Birch River Ct	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,349 (-1%)	0mo	$305,000	$130	65
79 Saddle Horn Pl	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,500 (+5%)	7mo	$315,000	$126	61
74 Riders Rdg	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,138 (-10%)	5mo	$345,000	$161	59
121 Birch River Ct	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,516 (+6%)	14mo	$400,000	$159	48
90 Saddle Horn Pl	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,124 (-10%)	18mo	$320,000	$151	41
34 Hemlock Gln	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,631 (+11%)	13mo	$400,000	$152	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -26.4%
Equity multiple: 0.12×
Total profit: $-87,134
Equity at exit: $52,515

10-year hold

IRR: -27.9%
Equity multiple: -0.24×
Total profit: $-122,456
Equity at exit: $30,452

Cash invested: $98,618 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 15 active · 10 under contract
Months of supply: 7.5 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $389,900 ($168/sqft)
Median days on market: 86 d
This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -11.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 30132

Home prices YoY: -33.1%
Rents YoY: 1.8%
Active inventory: 841
Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,541 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,847
Tax est. 1.5%: −$440 /mo · $5,283/yr
Insurance: −$147
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
Net cashflow: $-427

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,081

Max offer price $290,483

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-183	-5% $-305	+0% $-427	+5% $-548	+10% $-670
Rent	-10% $-627	-5% $-527	+0% $-427	+5% $-326	+10% $-226
Rate	-1.0pp $-249	-0.5pp $-337	base $-427	+0.5pp $-518	+1.0pp $-611

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $88,052
Closing costs: $10,566
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
121 Danville Trl Dallas, GA	4.0	2.5	1900	$2,315	$1.22	4d	1	0.55mi
219 Andalusa Ct Dallas, GA	4.0	3.0	3032	$3,195	$1.05	93d	1	0.71mi
68 Valley Brook Way Dallas, GA	4.0	2.5	1714	$2,041	$1.19	4d	1	0.74mi
175 Andalusa Ct Dallas, GA	4.0	2.5	2249	$2,495	$1.11	34d	1	0.76mi
117 Andalusa Ct Dallas, GA	4.0	2.5	2333	$2,699	$1.16	54d	1	0.83mi
114 Tannin Ct Dallas, GA	4.0	2.5	2212	$2,225	$1.01	1d	1	0.98mi
59 Appaloosa Ln Dallas, GA	3.0	2.0	1607	$2,020	$1.26	41d	1	1.10mi
620 Stable View Loop Dallas, GA	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,269	$1.11	2d	1	1.14mi
576 River Run Dr Dallas, GA	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,250	$1.02	93d	1	1.21mi
102 Oaktree St Dallas, GA	3.0	2.5	2100	$1,950	$0.93	36d	1	1.35mi
215 Scotland Dr Dallas, GA	4.0	2.5	1813	$1,999	$1.10	54d	1	1.36mi
109 Caledonian Cir Dallas, GA	3.0	2.0	1852	$1,986	$1.07	52d	1	1.41mi
490 Silver Oak Dr Dallas, GA	4.0	2.5	2470	$2,436	$0.99	93d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-05-22
Financial info: List price: $347,900

Exterior

Parking: 2 total parking spaces
Utilities: Natural gasElectricCentral air
Home design: Plan inventory (new construction plan)
Exterior features: Living area of 2372Address: Dallas, GA (The McGinnis Plan at 45 Jones Ridge Dr)

Interior

Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Natural gas heatingElectric heatingHeat pumpCentral air conditioning
Interior features: Open living area (plan)Plan name: The McGinnis

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $347,900 Active 103 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $347,900 Active 101 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $347,900 Active 100 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $347,900 Active 99 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $347,900 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $347,900 Active 95 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $347,900 Active 93 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $347,900 Active 92 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $347,900 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $347,900 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $347,900 Active 87 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $347,900 Active 86 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $347,900 Active 85 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $347,900 Active 84 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $347,900 Active 82 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $347,900 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $347,900 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $347,900 Active 79 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $347,900 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $347,900 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $347,900 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $347,900 Active 75 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $347,900 Active 74 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $347,900 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $347,900 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $347,900 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $347,900 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $347,900 Active 68 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $347,900 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $347,900 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $347,900 Active 65 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $347,900 Active 64 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $347,900 Active 63 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $347,900 Active 62 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $347,900 Active 61 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $347,900 Active 60 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $347,900 Active 58 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $347,900 Active 56 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $347,900 Active 55 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $347,900 Active 52 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $347,900 Active 51 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $347,900 Active 50 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $347,900 Active 49 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $347,900 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $347,900 Active 46 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $347,900 Active 43 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $347,900 Active 42 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $347,900 Active 41 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $347,900 Active 38 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $347,900 Active 37 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $30,493
− Mortgage interest: −$19,729
− Property taxes: −$5,283
− Insurance: −$1,761
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,439
− Management: −$2,439
− Depreciation: −$10,246
Taxable loss: −$11,405

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,737
After-tax cash flow: $-2,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It has a good exterior, roof, and interior, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑
Both Updating the interior paint — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and increase both resale and rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Northside Elementary School F GA #663/1,228 Nat'l #27,846/41,679 Middle Lena Mae Moses Middle School D+ GA #97/470 Nat'l #4,522/14,009 High East Paulding High School F GA #225/424 Nat'l #13,947/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Paulding County
NCES district ID: 1304020
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
Median HH income: $61,447
Composite: 36.0/100
National rank: #4784
State rank: #33 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Dallas

Score: 66/100
State rank: #192
US rank: #11802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Paulding County · 175,714 people
City population: 106,793
Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
Population (ZIP): 53,348
Household income: $109,914
Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

Population outlook (Paulding County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 175,714 people
By 2030: 186,082 · +5.9%
By 2040: 204,414 · +16.3%
By 2050: 217,040 · +23.5%
By 2075: 236,980 · +34.9%
By 2100: 238,314 · +35.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Paulding

2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.7%
2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -38.5pp · 2024: -24.1pp
All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+38.5

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -92.85%
Current HPI: 187.6553
Rent YoY: ▲ 1.84%
Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
#203 WestRock Atlanta $19.3B #346 Graphic Packaging Holding Atlanta $9.4B
Retail	1	$160B
#24 Home Depot Atlanta $159.5B
Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
#47 United Parcel Service Atlanta $91.1B
Airlines	1	$62B
#70 Delta Air Lines Atlanta $61.6B
Consumer Goods	1	$47B
#97 Coca-Cola Atlanta $47.1B
Utilities	1	$25B
#147 Southern Company Atlanta $24.9B

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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