104 Pacific Mill Pl #1 · Lyman, SC 29365

$199,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,305 sqft · Townhouse · 66 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $194k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-In Ready! The Aspen offers a beautifully designed living space that maximizes space while keeping everyday living comfortable. From the front entry, the foyer opens into an open kitchen, dining area, and great room, creating a main living space that feels open but connected. The kitchen includes an island and pantry storage, with clear sightlines into the dining and living areas. A rear patio extends the living space outdoors, while a conveniently placed powder room and storage closet completes the main level. This floor plan features 1,305 square feet, 3 bedrooms, and 2.5 bathrooms, with all bedrooms located on the second floor for added separation from the main living areas. Upstairs

Key facts

• Outside storage
• Private patio
• Walk-in pantry

Tags

• PLANTATION ISLAND KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE PATIO
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY ROOM
• OUTSIDE STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $199,990

Exterior

• Home design: Condominium/townhome unit (unit #1)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1305; Spec construction
• Exterior features: Address: 104 Pacific Mill Pl #1, Lyman, SC 29365

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec-built Aspen plan; Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-249/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in Lyman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#83 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Spartanburg 05 (suburban): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #13 of 80 in SC (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Duncan Elementary School of The Arts (math 30% / reading 37%, grade F, #362 of 597 statewide, top 61%, 689 students, 100% FRL); D. R. Hill Middle (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #116 of 229 statewide, top 51%, 702 students, 80% FRL); James F. Byrnes High (math 31% / reading 75%, grade C-, #140 of 196 statewide, top 72%, 2,217 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 39% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,129 units permitted in Spartanburg County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spartanburg County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,324 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.44%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,445
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
817 Ernest Ln	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,276 (-2%)	2mo	$189,900	$149	70
845 Ernest Ln	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,276 (-2%)	2mo	$189,900	$149	69
857 Ernest Ln	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,276 (-2%)	2mo	$187,900	$147	68
865 Ernest Ln	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,276 (-2%)	2mo	$199,900	$157	67
819 Ernest Ln	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,480 (+13%)	2mo	$199,900	$135	51
855 Ernest Ln	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,480 (+13%)	2mo	$214,900	$145	50
847 Ernest Ln	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,480 (+13%)	2mo	$224,900	$152	50
867 Ernest Ln	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,480 (+13%)	1mo	$214,900	$145	49
827 Ernest Ln	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,480 (+13%)	4mo	$227,900	$154	49
863 Ernest Ln	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,480 (+13%)	2mo	$224,900	$152	49
851 Ernest Ln	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,480 (+13%)	3mo	$203,500	$138	49
859 Ernest Ln	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,480 (+13%)	2mo	$222,400	$150	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-33,701
• Equity at exit: $29,819

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-30,940
• Equity at exit: $17,291

Cash invested: $55,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29365

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,723 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $196,991

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $117	-5% $48	+0% $-21	+5% $-90	+10% $-159
Rent	-10% $-157	-5% $-89	+0% $-21	+5% $47	+10% $115
Rate	-1.0pp $80	-0.5pp $30	base $-21	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,998
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
855 Ernest Ln Lyman, SC	3.0	2.5	1480	$1,750	$1.18	23d	1	0.56mi
867 Ernest Ln Lyman, SC	3.0	2.5	1480	$1,750	$1.18	15d	1	0.58mi
867 Ernest Ln Lyman, SC	3.0	2.5	1480	$1,750	$1.18	23d	1	0.58mi
527 Nova Ln Duncan, SC	3.0	2.5	1404	$1,645	$1.17	23d	1	1.00mi
610 Universal Dr Lyman, SC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1060	$1,799	$1.70	15d	11	1.08mi
266 Christopher Street Ext Duncan, SC	3.0	2.5	1606	$1,825	$1.14	23d	1	1.31mi
Paradise Pl Wellford, SC	2.0–3.0	2.5	1135	$1,595	$1.41	23d	2	1.34mi
Halo Dr Wellford, SC	2.0	1.5	995	$1,295	$1.30	15d	1	1.35mi
244 Halo Dr Wellford, SC	2.0–3.0	2.5	1137	$1,595	$1.40	23d	4	1.36mi
Angelic Pl Wellford, SC	3.0	2.5	1280	$1,520	$1.19	23d	2	1.38mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,990 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,990 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,990 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-13
   listed $199,990 Active 62 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,654
• − Management: −$1,654
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,650
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$876
• After-tax cash flow: $627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spartanburg 05
• NCES district ID: 4503600
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $52,127
• Composite: 41.31/100
• National rank: #3512
• State rank: #13 of 80 in SC

Livability — Lyman

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #9705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyman, SC
• County: Spartanburg County · 258,607 people
• City population: 14,068
• Metro: Spartanburg, SC
• Population (ZIP): 14,068
• Household income: $76,966
• Rent vs Own: 13.1% rent · 86.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 234.0

Population outlook (Spartanburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 325,495 people
• By 2030: 338,800 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 363,471 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 384,156 · +18.0%
• By 2075: 430,137 · +32.1%
• By 2100: 442,733 · +36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 5% Serbian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 8% Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spartanburg

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.6) · D 32.6% · R 66.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -21.6pp · 2024: -33.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.6 2020: R+27.3 2016: R+30.0 2012: R+23.1 2008: R+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.35%
• Current HPI: 254.6167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Spartanburg, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B