15 Industrial Park Rd · Heber Springs, AR 72543

$179,400

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,950 sqft · Manufactured · 44 Days on market

Built 1998 1.75 ac lot $92/sqft · at area comps Est $175k · at est. ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

!!! NEW ROOF and DECKING!!! Welcome to 15 Industrial Park! This updated 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath mobile home sits on a permanent foundation and offers 1,950 sq ft of either comfortable living space or commercial opportunity on an approx 1.75-acre lot! Direct views of Sugarloaf mountain can be seen from many angles on the property! Recent updates include new flooring, paint, countertops, and more, this space is move-in ready. Plenty of parking spaces and a flexible layout that makes this property perfect as a primary residence, rental investment, or a prime commercial opportunity. Located at the high-visibility corner of Wilburn Road and AR Highway 210, just minutes away from the Little Red Rive

Key facts

• New flooring
• Flexible layout
• New paint

Tags

• PERMANENT FOUNDATION
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW PAINT
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT
• HIGH-VISIBILITY CORNER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing options include VA, FHA, conventional, cash, and Rural Development

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pads with space for 4+ cars
• Utilities: Public water; Electric service via cooperative
• Home design: Mobile home on a permanent foundation
• Construction: Metal or vinyl siding; 3-tab shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Other foundation details (see remarks)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Paved road access; Not in a subdivision; River/lake area nearby; Mountain view; Up-slope lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in stove; Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator stays
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Breakfast bar; Kitchen counters with ceramic tile; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater; Sheetrock and paneling walls/ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer connection; Dryer connection (electric)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.1% in Heber Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#329 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Heber Springs School District (town): math 50% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #19 of 238 in AR (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Cleburne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cleburne County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,660 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.20%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,000
• List price: $179,400
• Delta: 2.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-40,258
• Equity at exit: $26,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-49,406
• Equity at exit: $15,511

Cash invested: $50,232 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72543

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,347 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$941
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,691/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $-176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,569

Max offer price $153,936

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-52	-5% $-114	+0% $-176	+5% $-238	+10% $-300
Rent	-10% $-282	-5% $-229	+0% $-176	+5% $-123	+10% $-70
Rate	-1.0pp $-86	-0.5pp $-130	base $-176	+0.5pp $-222	+1.0pp $-270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,850
• Closing costs: $5,382
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,400 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,400 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,400 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,400 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,400 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,400 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,400 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,400 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,400 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,400 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,400 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    statusdays on market $179,400 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,400 Price Change 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,400 Price Change 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,400 Price Change 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,400 Price Change 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    listed $184,900 New Listing 800-char remark
18. 2026-03-28
    historical
19. 2025-10-02
    price $204,793
20. 2025-09-28
    listed $239,000 New Listing
21. 2025-08-15
    historical
22. 2025-07-05
    price $239,000
23. 2025-07-03
    listed $245,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,049
• − Property taxes: −$2,691
• − Insurance: −$897
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,293
• − Management: −$1,293
• − Depreciation: −$5,219
• Taxable loss: −$5,282
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,268
• After-tax cash flow: $-844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0507560
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $39,577
• Composite: 41.39/100
• National rank: #3478
• State rank: #19 of 238 in AR

Livability — Heber Springs

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #329
• US rank: #21491

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,642

Population outlook (Cleburne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,198 people
• By 2030: 23,324 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 21,566 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 19,916 · -17.7%
• By 2075: 16,744 · -30.8%
• By 2100: 13,303 · -45.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cleburne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.9) · D 15.2% · R 83.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -44.2pp · 2024: -67.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.9 2020: R+65.8 2016: R+61.4 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+44.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.45%
• Current HPI: 215.4322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-26.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $179,400 CARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $184,900 CARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $204,793 CARMLS
• 2025-09-28 Listed $239,000 CARMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-07-05 Price Changed $239,000 CARMLS
• 2025-07-03 Listed $245,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

-71.4%/yr

Latest (2023): $52 · -94.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.