9200 SW 3rd St · Watergate, FL 33428

$214,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 1981

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brighter and upgraded corner residence Beautiful maintained corner residence offering privacy, natural light. This bright second floor, unit features 2 spacious bedroom, and 2 full bathrooms with open air feel throughout Enjoy a very large sun-field enclosed balcony, perfect as a relaxing retreat, home office or extended living space. The home is equipped with full hurricane protection, including shutters at every window, and a hurricane-rated front door

Key facts

• Natural light
• Hurricane protection
• Corner residence

Tags

• CORNER RESIDENCE
• NATURAL LIGHT
• SUN-FIELD ENCLOSED BALCONY
• HURRICANE PROTECTION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $214k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $569 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $214k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#585 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.39%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $453,600
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22826 SW 65th Way	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (+1%)	2mo	$460,000	$432	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $3,462
• Equity at exit: $31,908

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $57,673
• Equity at exit: $18,503

Cash invested: $59,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33428

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,592 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,122
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$268 /mo · $3,210/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $569

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,872

Max offer price $214,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $716	-5% $642	+0% $569	+5% $495	+10% $421
Rent	-10% $364	-5% $466	+0% $569	+5% $671	+10% $773
Rate	-1.0pp $676	-0.5pp $623	base $569	+0.5pp $513	+1.0pp $457

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,500
• Closing costs: $6,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9200 SW 3rd St #109 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,250	$2.34	25d	1	0.04mi
9210 SW 3rd St #216 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,350	$2.45	25d	1	0.05mi
9244 SW 2nd St Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$3,300	$2.23	25d	1	0.08mi
9272 SW 3rd St #413 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,500	$2.60	0d	1	0.09mi
9338 SW 3rd St #508 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,300	$2.39	14d	1	0.12mi
9338 SW 3rd St #508 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,300	$2.39	15d	1	0.12mi
9374 SW 3rd St Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,250	$2.34	0d	2	0.15mi
22201 Majestic Woods Way Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.5	1280	$2,800	$2.19	25d	1	0.22mi
9162 SW 5th St Unit A Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1039	$2,400	$2.31	25d	1	0.25mi
22217 SW 61st Ave Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1318	$3,200	$2.43	3d	1	0.25mi
22217 SW 61st Ave Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1318	$3,200	$2.43	16d	1	0.25mi
22217 SW 61st Ave Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1318	$3,200	$2.43	23d	1	0.25mi
22465 SW 61st Way #247 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1407	$2,600	$1.85	5d	1	0.27mi
22465 SW 61st Way #247 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1407	$2,700	$1.92	25d	1	0.27mi
9500 SW 3rd St #259 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.5	1336	$2,350	$1.76	25d	1	0.29mi
9260 Boca Vue Dr Boca Raton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$3,306	$3.14	0d	31	0.31mi
9235 SW 8th St Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1045	$2,175	$2.08	12d	4	0.36mi
9235 SW 8th St Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$2,150	$2.39	3d	2	0.36mi
9233 SW 8th St #110 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	979	$1,800	$1.84	9d	1	0.40mi
9440 SW 8th St Boca Raton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	895	$2,400	$2.68	0d	3	0.43mi
9370 SW 8th St #107 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$2,150	$2.39	16d	1	0.46mi
9370 SW 8th St #107 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	6d	1	0.46mi
9273 SW 8th St Boca Raton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	878	$2,200	$2.51	4d	3	0.47mi
8895 Old Pine Rd Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1488	$4,500	$3.02	12d	1	0.49mi
9355 SW 8th St Boca Raton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	780	$1,975	$2.53	2d	4	0.52mi
9285 Vista Del Lago Unit 36F Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1216	$3,200	$2.63	25d	1	0.65mi
9284 Vista Del Lago Unit 34-F Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1216	$2,400	$1.97	23d	1	0.65mi
9299 Vista Del Lago Unit 16D Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1216	$2,900	$2.38	25d	1	0.65mi
9860 SW 3rd St Boca Raton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1222	$2,631	$2.15	0d	34	0.68mi
22682 Family Cir Unit 22682 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1425	$3,400	$2.39	15d	1	0.68mi
22745 SW 65th Way Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1477	$3,500	$2.37	4d	1	0.71mi
22605 SW 66th Ave #206 Boca Raton, FL	1.0	1.5	960	$1,650	$1.72	6d	1	0.74mi
22605 SW 66th Ave #403 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$2,100	$2.04	25d	1	0.74mi
21866 Cypress Cir Unit 31e Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1216	$2,600	$2.14	5d	1	0.74mi
21535 Cypress Hammock Dr Unit 36J Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1266	$2,200	$1.74	25d	1	0.77mi
21529 Cypress Hammock Dr Unit 35J Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1266	$2,395	$1.89	13d	1	0.77mi
9993 Three Lakes Cir Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	972	$2,600	$2.67	15d	1	0.77mi
9973 Three Lakes Cir Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1026	$2,500	$2.44	25d	1	0.78mi
21500 Cypress Hammock Dr Unit 38C Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1266	$2,500	$1.97	25d	1	0.80mi
21820 Cypress Cir Unit 25e Boca Raton, FL	1.0	1.0	1216	$1,000	$0.82	23d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $214,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 460-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $214,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,987
• − Property taxes: −$3,210
• − Insurance: −$1,070
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,488
• − Management: −$2,488
• − Depreciation: −$6,225
• Taxable income: $3,631
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$872
• After-tax cash flow: $5,951/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Watergate

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #585
• US rank: #11201

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,588
• Household income: $88,543
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1990.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Two or more races 23% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 12% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -299.00%
• Current HPI: 373.2649
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.72%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+8130.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $214,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-12-30 Rental Removed $2,500 VLS
• 2025-12-20 Listed for Rent $2,500 VLS
• 2024-08-17 Rental Removed $2,300 RMLSFL
• 2024-08-10 Price Changed $2,300 RMLSFL
• 2024-07-31 Listed for Rent $2,400 RMLSFL
• 2024-03-16 Rental Removed $2,300 RMLSFL
• 2024-02-19 Price Changed $2,300 RMLSFL
• 2024-02-05 Listed for Rent $2,400 RMLSFL
• 2023-11-18 Rental Removed $2,400 RMLSFL
• 2023-10-12 Price Changed $2,400 RMLSFL
• 2023-10-01 Listed for Rent $2,600 RMLSFL