ASPEN Plan · Barrett, TX 77532

$229,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · SingleFamily · 897 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room-ideal for relaxing and entertaining-is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 897 days

🏗️ New construction. The $229,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $245,395.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 897 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $191,595 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 897 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.18%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,395
• List price: $229,990
• Delta: -6.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
430 Harrison Hope Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	4mo	$214,900	$155	93
11503 Gristmill Grange Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	5mo	$237,900	$171	92
11515 Gristmill Grange Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	6mo	$234,900	$169	91
450 Harrison Hope Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	6mo	$234,900	$169	89
426 Harrison Hope Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-7%)	2mo	$199,900	$155	83
454 Harrison Hope Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-7%)	6mo	$229,900	$178	77
414 Harrison Hope Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+14%)	2mo	$244,900	$155	67
11503 Prosperity Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+14%)	6mo	$249,900	$158	65
11626 Heritage Wind Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+14%)	2mo	$252,900	$160	64
438 Harrison Hope Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+14%)	4mo	$239,900	$152	64
446 Harrison Hope Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+14%)	5mo	$244,900	$155	62
462 Harrison Hope Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+14%)	5mo	$249,900	$158	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-54,231
• Equity at exit: $36,589

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-73,543
• Equity at exit: $21,217

Cash invested: $68,711 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,916 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,287
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$307 /mo · $3,681/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,147

Max offer price $219,020

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,349
• Closing costs: $7,362
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,990 Active 897 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,990 Active 896 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,990 Active 895 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,990 Active 894 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,990 Active 892 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,990 Active 888 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,990 Active 887 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,990 Active 886 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $229,990 Active 883 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,990 Active 881 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,990 Active 880 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,990 Active 879 DOM
13. 2025-06-12
    price $229,990 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room-ideal for relaxing and entertaining-is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

14. 2025-01-01
    price $239,990 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room-ideal for relaxing and entertaining-is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

15. 2024-01-03
    listed $238,990 Active 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room-ideal for relaxing and entertaining-is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,991
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,746
• − Property taxes: −$3,681
• − Insurance: −$1,227
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,839
• − Management: −$1,839
• − Depreciation: −$7,139
• Taxable loss: −$6,480
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,555
• After-tax cash flow: $-632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Barrett, TX, is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a well-maintained kitchen, bathrooms, and exterior. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace ceiling fans with modern fixtures — Modernizes space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with modern fixtures — Modernizes space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $229,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-01 Price Changed $239,990 Zillow
• 2024-01-03 Listed $238,990 Zillow