6231 164th St NW · Cass Lake, MN 56633

$60,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1978 2.48 ac lot ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on a 2.48-acre lot on the edge of Cass Lake, this one-level home offers a balance of space and convenience with close proximity to town amenities and area lakes. The property features three main-level bedrooms, main floor laundry, and a functional layout with ample kitchen cabinetry and natural light. A walkout lower level provides additional usable space, and the detached two-stall garage offers storage and parking. The setting includes a combination of open yard and wooded surroundings with access to nearby recreation, shopping, and services.

Key facts

• 2.48 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1978

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 2.3% in Cass Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#319 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Cass Lake-Bena Public Schools (rural): math 14% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #290 of 301 in MN (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 285 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Cass County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $56,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.16%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $45,697
• Equity at exit: $41,160

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.79×
• Total profit: $114,150
• Equity at exit: $77,808

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56633

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,059 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,236/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $560

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $60,000 Pending 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $60,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $60,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $60,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $60,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $60,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $60,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $60,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-04-29
    price $60,000 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    Situated on a 2.48-acre lot on the edge of Cass Lake, this one-level home offers a balance of space and convenience with close proximity to town amenities and area lakes. The property features three main-level bedrooms, main floor laundry, and a functional layout with ample kitchen cabinetry and natural light. A walkout lower level provides additional usable space, and the detached two-stall garage offers storage and parking. The setting includes a combination of open yard and wooded surroundings with access to nearby recreation, shopping, and services.

12. 2026-04-02
    listed $72,000 Active 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    Situated on a 2.48-acre lot on the edge of Cass Lake, this one-level home offers a balance of space and convenience with close proximity to town amenities and area lakes. The property features three main-level bedrooms, main floor laundry, and a functional layout with ample kitchen cabinetry and natural light. A walkout lower level provides additional usable space, and the detached two-stall garage offers storage and parking. The setting includes a combination of open yard and wooded surroundings with access to nearby recreation, shopping, and services.

13. 2026-04-01
    historical
14. 2026-03-18
    status Active
15. 2026-03-06
    historical Contingent - Inspection
16. 2026-03-06
    status Active
17. 2026-03-05
    historical
18. 2026-02-25
    historical Contingent - Inspection
19. 2025-09-17
    price $72,000
20. 2025-09-11
    status Active
21. 2025-08-08
    status Pending
22. 2025-08-07
    historical
23. 2025-06-30
    price $77,775
24. 2025-06-11
    price $82,500
25. 2025-05-23
    price $86,925
26. 2025-05-06
    price $91,500
27. 2025-05-01
    listed $94,000 Active
28. 2025-04-25
    status Active
29. 2025-04-25
    historical
30. 2025-03-20
    status Pending
31. 2025-03-12
    historical Contingent - Subject to Financing
32. 2025-03-12
    status Active
33. 2025-03-10
    historical
34. 2025-02-27
    historical Contingent - Subject to Financing
35. 2025-02-13
    price $94,000
36. 2025-01-19
    price $99,900
37. 2024-12-13
    price $105,900
38. 2024-11-13
    price $111,625
39. 2024-10-10
    listed $117,500 Active
40. 2024-04-29
    status Active
41. 2024-04-26
    listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,236 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,236 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,711
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$1,236
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,017
• − Management: −$1,017
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $4,035
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$968
• After-tax cash flow: $3,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cass Lake-Bena Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2708070
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,458
• Composite: 16.58/100
• National rank: #9177
• State rank: #290 of 301 in MN

Livability — Cass Lake

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #7129

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,863

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,371 people
• By 2030: 26,311 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 23,945 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 21,889 · -20.0%
• By 2075: 18,435 · -32.6%
• By 2100: 14,478 · -47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.90)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 51% White 32% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.4) · D 32.6% · R 66.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.9pp toward R · 2008: -8.5pp · 2024: -33.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.4 2020: R+28.9 2016: R+31.7 2012: R+13.1 2008: R+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.89%
• Current HPI: 340.4577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-50.0% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $60,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $72,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $72,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-11 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-08 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-07 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $77,775 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-11 Price Changed $82,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-23 Price Changed $86,925 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $91,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Listed $94,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-25 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-25 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-20 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-12 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-12 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-10 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-27 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $94,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-19 Price Changed $99,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-13 Price Changed $105,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-13 Price Changed $111,625 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-10 Listed $117,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-29 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-26 Listed $120,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,236 · +14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.