1 Lakeside 714-I · Manson, WA 98831

$2,700

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 981 sqft · Timeshare · 56 Days on market

Built 1994 $3/sqft · 10% below area Est $3k · 10% under $308/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ground Floor 2 bed 2 bath luxury suite with unobstructed lake & mountain views with outdoor pool, lawn, swimming area, waterfront & boat moorage in your front yard. No stairs access from parking lot to condo entry door. Newly remodeled in 2022. Located next to Kiosk in the heart of all resort amenities. Upcoming weeks: June 14-21 & October 11-18 in 2026. March 14-21, July 11-18 & November 7-14 in 2027. April 16-23, August 13-20 & December 10-17 in 2028. HOA Fees $925/quarter. Sunday to Sunday rotation. 3 rotating weeks per year ensure you experience every season this valley has to offer — spring wildflowers, summer on the water, fall harvest & w

Key facts

• Parking
• Community pool
• Built 1994

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $3k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $696 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $3k).
• Recommended offer: $3k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 315.8% vs local median 2.9% in Manson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#421 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living D+, employment D.
• Manson School District (town): math 42% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #211 of 291 in WA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 762 units permitted in Chelan County in 2024 (377 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $19 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $81 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chelan County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $756 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($3k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,619 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 47.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 315.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1105.38%
• DSCR: 50.18
• GRM: 0.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,016
• List price: $2,700
• Delta: -10.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Lakeside 701-B	0.05mi	2/2.0	981 (0%)	2mo	$2,000	$2	96
1 Lakeside 720-P	0.01mi	2/2.0	981 (0%)	4mo	$1,000	$1	96
1 Lakeside 711-F	0.02mi	2/2.0	981 (0%)	4mo	$4,500	$5	96
1 Lakeside 720-H	0.01mi	2/2.0	981 (0%)	6mo	$1	—	94
1 Lakeside 715-Q	0.01mi	2/2.0	981 (0%)	8mo	$3,500	$4	93
1 Lodge 632-C	0.13mi	2/2.0	981 (0%)	4mo	$500	$1	91
1 Beach 553-A	0.21mi	2/2.0	964 (-2%)	4mo	$3,500	$4	84
1 Beach 549-I	0.26mi	2/2.0	964 (-2%)	2mo	$1	—	84
1 Beach 534-O	0.23mi	2/2.0	964 (-2%)	4mo	$2,600	$3	83
1 Beach 536-J	0.21mi	2/2.0	964 (-2%)	8mo	$1	—	80
1 Beach 538-C	0.58mi	2/2.0	964 (-2%)	1mo	$1	—	70
1 Beach 542-C	0.58mi	2/2.0	964 (-2%)	5mo	$3,500	$4	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 59.37×
• Total profit: $44,125
• Equity at exit: $403

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 128.49×
• Total profit: $96,384
• Equity at exit: $233

Cash invested: $756 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98831

• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$3 /mo · $40/yr
• Insurance: −$1
• HOA: −$308
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $696

Break-even live

Break-even rent $413

Max offer price $2,700

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $675
• Closing costs: $81
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
139 Chandler Rd Unit 16D Manson, WA	1.0	1.0	800	$1,295	$1.62	44d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $308 · $3,696/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,700 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,700 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,700 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,700 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,700 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,700 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $2,700 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,700 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,700 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $2,700 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,700 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,700 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,700 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,700 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,700 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    listed $2,700 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 23 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$151
• − Property taxes: −$40
• − Insurance: −$14
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,243
• − Management: −$1,243
• − HOA: −$3,696
• − Depreciation: −$79
• Taxable income: $9,074
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,178
• After-tax cash flow: $6,179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manson School District
• NCES district ID: 5304740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,123
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #8876
• State rank: #211 of 291 in WA

Livability — Manson

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #16741

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manson, WA
• Population (ZIP): 4,020

Population outlook (Chelan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,630 people
• By 2030: 84,312 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 88,619 · +8.6%
• By 2050: 91,915 · +12.6%
• By 2075: 99,409 · +21.8%
• By 2100: 100,032 · +22.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 40% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 5% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 38% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chelan

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.5) · D 43.9% · R 53.4% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -12.0pp · 2024: -9.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.5 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+15.7 2012: R+16.9 2008: R+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -325.60%
• Current HPI: 249.0392
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B