456 Red Bud Cir · Shadybrook, TX 75757

$159,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 76 Days on market

Built 2013 0.66 ac lot $131/sqft · 31% below area Est $230k · 31% under $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your peaceful retreat in the heart of Bullard, Texas! Situated on a spacious 0.66-acre lot, this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,216 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space with upgrades throughout. Nearly every facet of the home has been enhanced, including modern light fixtures (with the exception of the spare room) and upgraded ceiling fans featuring sleek, invisible blades. The open-concept living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen, creating an inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. This Solitaire Home is built with quality in mind, featuring ¾-inch plywood subflooring, sheetrock walls and ceilings, and an exterior designed to be termite-resistant for up to 50 years. The roof is equipped with durable 4-tab shingles, offering potential savings on homeowners insurance. Enjoy the convenience of modern windows that fold inward for easy cleaning, as well as two entry points to the property with a circle drive for added accessibility. With ample outdoor space in the fully fenced backyard and a peaceful setting, this property combines comfort, efficiency, and East Texas charm.

Key facts

• Sheetrock walls
• 0.66-acre lot
• 0.66 acre lot

Tags

• 0.66-ACRE LOT
• MODERN LIGHT FIXTURES
• UPGRADED CEILING FANS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• QUALITY PLYWOOD SUBFLOORING
• SHEETROCK WALLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $292 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.0% in Shadybrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,042 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 581 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.87%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,439
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -31.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-7,202
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $17,552
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75757

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $894/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,280

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
394 Red Bud Cir Bullard, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,650	$1.22	43d	1	0.04mi
124 Pecan Dr Bullard, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,650	$1.21	43d	1	0.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,000 Active 56 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    price $159,000 1163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1163 chars)

    Welcome to your peaceful retreat in the heart of Bullard, Texas! Situated on a spacious 0.66-acre lot, this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,216 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space with upgrades throughout. Nearly every facet of the home has been enhanced, including modern light fixtures (with the exception of the spare room) and upgraded ceiling fans featuring sleek, invisible blades. The open-concept living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen, creating an inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. This Solitaire Home is built with quality in mind, featuring ¾-inch plywood subflooring, sheetrock walls and ceilings, and an exterior designed to be termite-resistant for up to 50 years. The roof is equipped with durable 4-tab shingles, offering potential savings on homeowners insurance. Enjoy the convenience of modern windows that fold inward for easy cleaning, as well as two entry points to the property with a circle drive for added accessibility. With ample outdoor space in the fully fenced backyard and a peaceful setting, this property combines comfort, efficiency, and East Texas charm.

18. 2026-04-04
    listed $170,000 Active 1163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1163 chars)

    Welcome to your peaceful retreat in the heart of Bullard, Texas! Situated on a spacious 0.66-acre lot, this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,216 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space with upgrades throughout. Nearly every facet of the home has been enhanced, including modern light fixtures (with the exception of the spare room) and upgraded ceiling fans featuring sleek, invisible blades. The open-concept living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen, creating an inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. This Solitaire Home is built with quality in mind, featuring ¾-inch plywood subflooring, sheetrock walls and ceilings, and an exterior designed to be termite-resistant for up to 50 years. The roof is equipped with durable 4-tab shingles, offering potential savings on homeowners insurance. Enjoy the convenience of modern windows that fold inward for easy cleaning, as well as two entry points to the property with a circle drive for added accessibility. With ample outdoor space in the fully fenced backyard and a peaceful setting, this property combines comfort, efficiency, and East Texas charm.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $894 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,910 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,015/yr (+$168/mo · 225.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$894
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $967
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$232
• After-tax cash flow: $3,271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812060
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,026
• Composite: 53.66/100
• National rank: #1433
• State rank: #48 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shadybrook

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1042
• US rank: #18541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shadybrook, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,977

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,949 people
• By 2030: 51,984 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 51,780 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 51,085 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 47,418 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 39,464 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.2pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+55.8 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+43.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.57%
• Current HPI: 189.5215
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $159,000 LAAR
• 2026-04-04 Listed $170,000 LAAR

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $894 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.