3205 Oak Hill Dr · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$83,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Built 1996 Good condition 9,801 sqft lot $4/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the space, freedom, and Lake Granbury lifestyle buyers are craving! Sitting on nearly half an acre across two lots, this two-bed, two-bath home delivers room to breathe, room to store, and room to live — all in a well-established Granbury community with incredible amenities! Inside, you’ll love the flexible layout featuring two generously sized primary bedrooms, each with its own full bath — ideal for roommates, guests, or multi-generational living. One suite offers handicap-accessible features, adding comfort and versatility rarely found at this price point. Natural light fills the living spaces, creating a bright, open feel that instantly feels like home. Step

Key facts

• Two lots
• Oversized yard
• Flexible layout

Tags

• NEARLY HALF AN ACRE
• TWO LOTS
• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT
• OVERSIZED YARD
• MULTIPLE STORAGE BUILDINGS
• GATED ENTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No known restrictions
• Financial info: Acceptable listing terms: Cash, Conventional; Second mortgage: No
• HOA & community: Mandatory association (Oak Trail Owners); Annual HOA fee of 48; Association fee includes full use of facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Outside parking
• Security: Security features: Unknown
• Utilities: Electricity available; Individual water meter; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Property is not attached; Subdivision: Oak Hills
• Construction: Built in 1996 (preowned); Siding construction; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Fencing: Metal and wire
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Storage; Cleared lot; Interior lot; Large backyard with grass; Easements for utilities

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances listed as Other)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on level 1)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; 1 living area; 1 dining area; Accessible approach with ramp; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Individual water meter

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $83k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $528 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nettie Baccus El (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 466 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 43% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $574 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $81,755 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.25%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,624
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3524 Hilltop	0.47mi	2/1.0	840 (-6%)	21mo	$205,000	$244	46
2923 Cedarbrush St	0.66mi	2/2.0	960 (+7%)	22mo	$73,000	$76	39
4505 Lakeshore Dr	0.71mi	1/1.0 (-1)	792 (-12%)	21mo	$549,000	$693	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $17,556
• Equity at exit: $12,376

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $48,289
• Equity at exit: $7,176

Cash invested: $23,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,399 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$104 /mo · $1,245/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $528

Break-even live

Break-even rent $731

Max offer price $83,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $585	-5% $556	+0% $528	+5% $499	+10% $470
Rent	-10% $417	-5% $472	+0% $528	+5% $583	+10% $638
Rate	-1.0pp $569	-0.5pp $549	base $528	+0.5pp $506	+1.0pp $484

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,750
• Closing costs: $2,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3225 Evergreen Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,425	$1.56	0d	1	0.23mi
3007 Inwood Trl Granbury, TX	1.0	1.0	902	$800	$0.89	20d	1	0.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $83,000 Pending 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $83,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $83,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $83,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $83,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $83,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $83,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $83,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $83,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $83,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $83,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $83,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $83,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $83,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    listed $83,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,789
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,649
• − Property taxes: −$1,245
• − Insurance: −$415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,343
• − Management: −$1,343
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$2,415
• Taxable income: $5,331
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,279
• After-tax cash flow: $5,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, two-bedroom home offers a good investment opportunity with minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace countertops — Modernizes kitchen and improves resale value
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace countertops — Modernizes kitchen and improves resale value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Trail Shores, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $83,000 NTREIS