1945 E Mia Ln · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$774,000

5 bd · 6.0 ba · 3,268 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 2012 7,800 sqft lot $237/sqft · 13% above area Est $780k · at est. $173/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to 1945 E Mia Ln a beautiful home with a separate bedroom and bath casita and a gorgeous pool and spa! The kitchen includes all stainless steel appliances, double oven, an accent backsplash, kitchen island and a large pantry. The primary bedroom features a walk in closet, double sinks, and a separate tub and shower. Step outside to a covered patio that leads to a fenced-in backyard, complete with an well-maintained in-ground pool, an RV gate and a 3 car tandem garage. Updates include fresh interior paint and partial flooring replacement. Casita / mother-in-law suite includes full ensuite. Prime location near the 202 freeway, Gilbert Regional Park with catch and release lake, pickleball courts. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

Key facts

• Large pantry
• Kitchen island
• Double oven

Tags

• GORGEOUS POOL AND SPA
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DOUBLE OVEN
• ACCENT BACKSPLASH
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• LARGE PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/6.0-bath single-family listed at $774k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $561k (27.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $461k (40.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $461k (40.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Knox Gifted Academy (math 90% / reading 97%, grade A+, #1 of 1,109 statewide, top 0%, 672 students, 6% FRL); Willie & Coy Payne Jr. High (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #26 of 218 statewide, top 12%, 1,143 students, 11% FRL); Perry High School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade D, #43 of 381 statewide, top 11%, 2,822 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools average 10% FRL vs 25% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($156k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $70k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $65k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$112k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($728k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $460,581 (40.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.69%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $779,667
• List price: $774,000
• Delta: -0.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1947 E Azalea Ct	0.05mi	5/3.5	2,883 (-12%)	8mo	$770,000	$267	61
1876 E Azalea Ct	0.09mi	5/4.5	3,752 (+15%)	10mo	$670,000	$179	57
1695 E Mia Ln	0.31mi	5/3.5	2,883 (-12%)	7mo	$630,000	$219	50
1532 E Rakestraw Ln	0.61mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,132 (-4%)	0mo	$854,000	$273	49
1411 E Carob Dr	0.71mi	5/3.5	3,361 (+3%)	5mo	$955,000	$284	48
1501 E Rakestraw Ln	0.66mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,173 (-3%)	4mo	$835,000	$263	46
21324 S 156th St	0.27mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,673 (+12%)	5mo	$1,695,000	$461	46
1479 E Rakestraw Ln	0.68mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,173 (-3%)	9mo	$900,000	$284	41
5281 S Red Rock St	0.53mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,796 (-14%)	4mo	$725,000	$259	31
1517 E Rakestraw Ln	0.64mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,939 (-10%)	7mo	$789,900	$269	30
5439 S Red Rock St	0.65mi	5/3.0	2,782 (-15%)	5mo	$825,000	$297	28
1458 E Lodgepole Dr	0.75mi	5/3.0	2,782 (-15%)	2mo	$831,900	$299	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $265,882
• Equity at exit: $607,242

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.89×
• Total profit: $842,637
• Equity at exit: $1,224,169

Cash invested: $216,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,606 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,059
• Tax from tax record: −$292 /mo · $3,505/yr
• Insurance: −$322
• HOA: −$173
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$967
• Net cashflow: $-1,208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,135

Max offer price $560,617

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-770	-5% $-989	+0% $-1,208	+5% $-1,427	+10% $-1,646
Rent	-10% $-1,572	-5% $-1,390	+0% $-1,208	+5% $-1,026	+10% $-844
Rate	-1.0pp $-818	-0.5pp $-1,011	base $-1,208	+0.5pp $-1,408	+1.0pp $-1,613

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $193,500
• Closing costs: $23,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1876 E Azalea Ct Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.5	3452	$6,500	$1.88	0d	1	0.09mi
1546 E Nightingale Ln Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.5	2421	$3,500	$1.45	20d	1	0.50mi
1447 E Mia Ln Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2421	$2,345	$0.97	45d	1	0.62mi
4957 S Stonecreek Blvd Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2418	$2,600	$1.08	16d	1	0.71mi
1533 E Sourwood Ct Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	2750	$3,300	$1.20	45d	1	0.78mi
5475 S Cardinal St Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.5	2708	$4,000	$1.48	3d	1	0.94mi
2543 E Penedes Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2496	$2,695	$1.08	45d	1	1.03mi
1129 E Regent Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.5	2323	$3,100	$1.33	6d	1	1.04mi
1133 E Buckingham Ave Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2571	$2,999	$1.17	26d	1	1.08mi
1544 E Hummingbird Way Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	2771	$2,895	$1.04	4d	1	1.11mi
1544 E Hummingbird Way Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	2771	$2,995	$1.08	0d	1	1.11mi
4535 S Ellesmere St Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	2324	$2,650	$1.14	16d	1	1.16mi
1094 E Sourwood Dr Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	3059	$2,799	$0.92	45d	1	1.19mi
2224 E Canary Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2595	$3,450	$1.33	23d	1	1.24mi
1277 E Tonto Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.5	2952	$4,000	$1.36	26d	1	1.28mi
2353 E Athena Ave Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	2597	$3,750	$1.44	16d	1	1.38mi
2753 E Hummingbird Way Gilbert, AZ	5.0	6.0	4605	$10,000	$2.17	12d	1	1.38mi
4122 S Quinn Ave Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2650	$3,450	$1.30	0d	1	1.44mi
2477 E Pelican Dr Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	2719	$3,150	$1.16	26d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $173 · $2,076/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $774,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $774,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $774,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $774,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $774,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $774,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $774,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $774,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $774,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $774,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $774,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $790,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $790,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $790,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $790,000 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    historical
17. 2026-04-09
    price $790,000 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Welcome home to 1945 E Mia Ln a beautiful home with a separate bedroom and bath casita and a gorgeous pool and spa! The kitchen includes all stainless steel appliances, double oven, an accent backsplash, kitchen island and a large pantry. The primary bedroom features a walk in closet, double sinks, and a separate tub and shower. Step outside to a covered patio that leads to a fenced-in backyard, complete with an well-maintained in-ground pool, an RV gate and a 3 car tandem garage. Updates include fresh interior paint and partial flooring replacement. Casita / mother-in-law suite includes full ensuite. Prime location near the 202 freeway, Gilbert Regional Park with catch and release lake, pickleball courts. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

18. 2026-03-24
    listed $800,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Welcome home to 1945 E Mia Ln a beautiful home with a separate bedroom and bath casita and a gorgeous pool and spa! The kitchen includes all stainless steel appliances, double oven, an accent backsplash, kitchen island and a large pantry. The primary bedroom features a walk in closet, double sinks, and a separate tub and shower. Step outside to a covered patio that leads to a fenced-in backyard, complete with an well-maintained in-ground pool, an RV gate and a 3 car tandem garage. Updates include fresh interior paint and partial flooring replacement. Casita / mother-in-law suite includes full ensuite. Prime location near the 202 freeway, Gilbert Regional Park with catch and release lake, pickleball courts. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

19. 2026-03-24
    listed $800,000 Active 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Welcome home to 1945 E Mia Ln a beautiful home with a separate bedroom and bath casita and a gorgeous pool and spa! The kitchen includes all stainless steel appliances, double oven, an accent backsplash, kitchen island and a large pantry. The primary bedroom features a walk in closet, double sinks, and a separate tub and shower. Step outside to a covered patio that leads to a fenced-in backyard, complete with an well-maintained in-ground pool, an RV gate and a 3 car tandem garage. Updates include fresh interior paint and partial flooring replacement. Casita / mother-in-law suite includes full ensuite. Prime location near the 202 freeway, Gilbert Regional Park with catch and release lake, pickleball courts. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

20. 2026-03-12
    soldstatus $757,400
21. 2013-01-10
    soldstatus $339,740 Closed
22. 2012-11-15
    status Pending
23. 2012-11-14
    status Active
24. 2012-10-11
    status Pending
25. 2012-09-20
    price $339,740
26. 2012-09-15
    price $344,740
27. 2012-09-15
    listed $346,740 Active
28. 2012-08-20
    soldstatus $339,740 Closed
29. 2012-07-20
    status Pending
30. 2012-07-20
    price $346,740
31. 2012-07-15
    listed $344,740 Active
32. 2012-02-06
    soldstatus $1,190,000
33. 2008-12-23
    soldstatus $21,019,336

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,505 · $292/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,108 · $426/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,604/yr (+$134/mo · 45.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$43,356
• − Property taxes: −$3,505
• − Insurance: −$3,870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,422
• − Management: −$4,422
• − HOA: −$2,076
• − Depreciation: −$22,516
• Taxable loss: −$28,897
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,935
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilbert, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-96.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $790,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $800,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $800,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $757,400 Public Records
• 2013-01-10 Sold (MLS) $339,740 ARMLS
• 2012-11-15 Pending — ARMLS
• 2012-11-14 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2012-10-11 Pending — ARMLS
• 2012-09-20 Price Changed $339,740 ARMLS
• 2012-09-15 Price Changed $344,740 ARMLS
• 2012-09-15 Listed $346,740 ARMLS
• 2012-08-20 Sold (MLS) $339,740 ARMLS
• 2012-07-20 Pending — ARMLS
• 2012-07-20 Price Changed $346,740 ARMLS
• 2012-07-15 Listed $344,740 ARMLS
• 2012-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $1,190,000 Public Records
• 2008-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $21,019,336 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,505 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.