7004 San Carlos St · Carlsbad, CA 92011

$338,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 210 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 1970 Good condition 29 ac lot $235/sqft · 5% below area Est $356k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.8

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home to Lakeshore Gardens, an exclusive 55+ gated community west of I-5 minutes from South Carlsbad State Beach. Live the coastal lifestyle, relax on the front porch & private patio while sipping your morning coffee & enjoying the afternoon ocean breeze. Spacious open floor plan with contemporary kitchen & large quartz-top island creates an inviting entertaining space. Primary bathroom features an elegant dual sink vanity with custom tiled oversized walk-in shower. The covered carport accommodates up to 2 vehicles with a screened-in addition perfect for arts & crafts/workshop or secure storage. Lakeshore Gardens is a premier resort-style community in Carlsbad with exclusive use amenities to include a community room, heated pool, spa, patios with outdoor BBQ, fitness center, library & RV parking. The peaceful park-like setting with greenbelts & walking paths & 10 lakes throughout the community are home to birds & aquatic life. This neighborhood is conveniently located near Carlsbad beaches, shopping, dining & transportation.

Key facts

• Contemporary kitchen
• Covered carport
• Private patio

Tags

• PRIVATE PATIO
• CONTEMPORARY KITCHEN
• DUAL SINK VANITY
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN SHOWER
• COVERED CARPORT
• ARTS AND CRAFTS WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $338k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $334k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $297k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.0% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Pacific Rim Elementary (673 students, 10% FRL); Aviara Oaks Middle (1,021 students, 16% FRL); Carlsbad High (2,290 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 112 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 81% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $95k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $57k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $297,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.88%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,375
• List price: $338,000
• Delta: -5.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7018 San Carlos St #60	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$392,000	$272	91
7269 San Luis St #244	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,461 (+2%)	1mo	$170,000	$116	90
7140 Santa Rosa St	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$191,000	$133	86
7209 San Luis St #169	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	0mo	$308,950	$215	84
7228 San Benito St #351	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+2%)	1mo	$175,000	$120	84
7106 Santa Cruz #56	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+2%)	10mo	$390,000	$266	82
7241 Santa Barbara St #300	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	1mo	$175,000	$130	78
7024 San Bartolo Unit 19 A	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (+7%)	4mo	$425,000	$275	73
7241 San Luis St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,546 (+7%)	0mo	$400,000	$259	67
7311 San Luis St #237	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,359 (-6%)	3mo	$236,550	$174	61
7243 San Luis St #257	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	4mo	$120,000	$96	58
7313 San Luis St #236	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,548 (+8%)	6mo	$450,000	$291	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $40,221
• Equity at exit: $128,744

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $147,302
• Equity at exit: $181,944

Cash invested: $94,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $329,000 ($235/sqft)
• Median days on market: 138 d
• This list price: 54% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92011

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,344 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,773
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$422 /mo · $5,070/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$702
• Net cashflow: $306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,957

Max offer price $338,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $539	-5% $422	+0% $306	+5% $189	+10% $72
Rent	-10% $42	-5% $174	+0% $306	+5% $438	+10% $570
Rate	-1.0pp $476	-0.5pp $392	base $306	+0.5pp $218	+1.0pp $129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,500
• Closing costs: $10,140
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6923 Whitecap Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1246	$5,250	$4.21	93d	1	0.39mi
7332 Escallonia Ct Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.5	1869	$5,200	$2.78	7d	1	0.46mi
6872 Shearwaters Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1246	$4,000	$3.21	48d	1	0.48mi
820 Windcrest Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1404	$5,581	$3.98	67d	1	0.52mi
6863 Alderwood Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.5	1438	$4,400	$3.06	30d	1	0.73mi
6910 Peachtree Rd Unit 1546353P Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1399	$6,129	$4.38	66d	1	0.75mi
7431 Linden Ter Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1180	$3,200	$2.71	29d	1	0.76mi
6811 Alderwood Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1292	$3,850	$2.98	93d	1	0.79mi
901 Caminito Estrada	2.0	1.5	1180	$3,800	$3.22	17d	1	0.80mi
916 Caminito Estrada Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1188	$3,650	$3.07	93d	1	0.86mi
902 Caminito Madrigal Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.0	897	$3,075	$3.43	38d	1	0.89mi
918 Caminito Estrada Unit E Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1188	$3,600	$3.03	30d	1	0.90mi
6675 Paseo del Norte Unit A Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$3,850	$4.01	54d	1	0.90mi
6675 Paseo del Norte Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$4,300	$4.48	93d	1	0.90mi
6677 Paseo Del Norte Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$4,500	$4.69	93d	1	0.91mi
6677 Paseo del Norte Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.0	959	$3,950	$4.12	93d	1	0.91mi
908 Caminito Madrigal Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	897	$4,500	$5.02	93d	1	0.94mi
908 Caminito Madrigal Unit D Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.5	897	$4,500	$5.02	93d	1	0.96mi
6805 Briarwood Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1292	$3,850	$2.98	33d	1	0.96mi
6822 Briarwood Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.5	1443	$3,995	$2.77	29d	1	0.97mi
925 Wind Drift Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.5	1110	$3,895	$3.51	93d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $338,000 Active 210 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $338,000 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $338,000 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $338,000 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $338,000 Active 205 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $338,000 Active 202 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $338,000 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $338,000 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $338,000 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $338,000 Active 197 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $338,000 Active 195 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $338,000 Active 194 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $338,000 Active 193 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $338,000 Active 192 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $338,000 Active 191 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $338,000 Active 189 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $338,000 Active 188 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $338,000 Active 187 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $338,000 Active 186 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $338,000 Active 185 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $338,000 Active 184 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $338,000 Active 183 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $338,000 Active 182 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $338,000 Active 181 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $338,000 Active 180 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $338,000 Active 178 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $338,000 Active 177 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $338,000 Active 176 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $338,000 Active 175 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $338,000 Active 174 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $338,000 Active 173 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $338,000 Active 172 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $338,000 Active 171 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $338,000 Active 170 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $338,000 Active 169 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $338,000 Active 168 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $338,000 Active 167 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $338,000 Active 165 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $338,000 Active 163 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $338,000 Active 162 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $338,000 Active 159 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $338,000 Active 158 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $338,000 Active 157 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $338,000 Active 156 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $338,000 Active 154 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $338,000 Active 153 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $338,000 Active 150 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $338,000 Active 149 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $338,000 Active 148 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $338,000 Active 145 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,933
• − Property taxes: −$5,070
• − Insurance: −$1,690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,210
• − Management: −$3,210
• − Depreciation: −$9,833
• Taxable loss: −$1,822
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$437
• After-tax cash flow: $4,105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,200–$21,600 screening

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and is move-in ready with a well-maintained exterior and interior. The home has a good kitchen and bathroom, and the landscaping is well-maintained. The home has a good roof and flooring, and the interior walls and paint are in good condition. The home has a good systems rating and no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The home has a good rehab level and is move-in ready with a good condition score of 80. The home has a good kitchen and bathroom, and the landscaping is well-maintained. The home has a good roof and flooring, and the interior walls and paint are in good condition. The home has a good systems rating and no visible repairs or maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing ↑
• Both Lighting — Improved lighting can make the home more inviting ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pacific Rim Elementary Middle Aviara Oaks Middle High Carlsbad High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlsbad Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,200
• Composite: 65.11/100
• National rank: #1068
• State rank: #87 of 1400 in CA

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,678,185 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,190
• Household income: $159,235
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 399.8502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+114.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $375,000 SDMLS
• 2026-01-11 Listed $395,000 SDMLS
• 2005-08-28 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2005-07-13 Listed $174,900 CRMLS