7004 San Carlos St · Carlsbad, CA 92011

$338,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 159 Days on market

Built 1970 Good condition 29 ac lot $235/sqft · 11% below area Est $381k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home to Lakeshore Gardens, an exclusive 55+ gated community west of I-5 minutes from South Carlsbad State Beach. Live the coastal lifestyle, relax on the front porch & private patio while sipping your morning coffee & enjoying the afternoon ocean breeze. Spacious open floor plan with contemporary kitchen & large quartz-top island creates an inviting entertaining space. Primary bathroom features an elegant dual sink vanity with custom tiled oversized walk-in shower. The covered carport accommodates up to 2 vehicles with a screened-in addition perfect for arts & crafts/workshop or secure storage. Lakeshore Gardens is a premier resort-style community in Carlsbad with exclusive use amenities to include a community room, heated pool, spa, patios with outdoor BBQ, fitness center, library & RV parking. The peaceful park-like setting with greenbelts & walking paths & 10 lakes throughout the community are home to birds & aquatic life. This neighborhood is conveniently located near Carlsbad beaches, shopping, dining & transportation.

Key facts

• Contemporary kitchen
• Covered carport
• Private patio

Tags

• PRIVATE PATIO
• CONTEMPORARY KITCHEN
• DUAL SINK VANITY
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN SHOWER
• COVERED CARPORT
• ARTS AND CRAFTS WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $338k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $338k).
• Recommended offer: $297k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 2.1% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($159k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $95k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $57k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $297,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.00%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $380,537
• List price: $338,000
• Delta: -11.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7018 San Carlos St #60	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$392,000	$272	92
7140 Santa Rosa St	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$191,000	$133	87
7106 Santa Cruz #56	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+2%)	9mo	$390,000	$266	83
7217 San Luis St #173	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$280,000	$194	82
7024 San Bartolo Unit 19 A	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (+7%)	2mo	$425,000	$275	75
7203 San Luis St #166	0.16mi	2/2.5	1,536 (+7%)	9mo	$375,000	$244	72
7318 San Luis St	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$285,000	$198	69
7304 Santa Barbara St #325	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	9mo	$481,000	$318	67
7311 San Luis St #237	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,359 (-6%)	1mo	$236,550	$174	63
7224 San Benito St	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,600 (+11%)	9mo	$400,000	$250	62
7243 San Luis St #257	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	2mo	$120,000	$96	60
7313 San Luis St #236	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,548 (+8%)	5mo	$450,000	$291	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $101,783
• Equity at exit: $128,744

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $282,121
• Equity at exit: $181,944

Cash invested: $94,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92011

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,554 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,773
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$422 /mo · $5,070/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$956
• Net cashflow: $1,262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,957

Max offer price $338,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,500
• Closing costs: $10,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6923 Whitecap Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1246	$5,250	$4.21	43d	1	0.39mi
820 Windcrest Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1404	$5,581	$3.98	17d	1	0.52mi
6790 Embarcadero Ln Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	2.0–2.5	2104	$5,750	$2.73	5d	1	0.57mi
6938 Seascape Dr Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$3,775	$4.66	3d	9	0.63mi
6910 Peachtree Rd Unit 1546353P Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1399	$6,129	$4.38	16d	1	0.75mi
6811 Alderwood Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1292	$3,850	$2.98	43d	1	0.79mi
916 Caminito Estrada Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1188	$3,650	$3.07	43d	1	0.86mi
902 Caminito Madrigal Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.0	897	$3,200	$3.57	10d	1	0.89mi
6675 Paseo del Norte Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$4,300	$4.48	43d	1	0.90mi
6675 Paseo del Norte Unit A Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$3,850	$4.01	4d	1	0.90mi
6677 Paseo Del Norte Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$4,500	$4.69	43d	1	0.91mi
6677 Paseo del Norte Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.0	959	$3,950	$4.12	43d	1	0.91mi
908 Caminito Madrigal Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	897	$4,500	$5.02	43d	1	0.94mi
908 Caminito Madrigal Unit D Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.5	897	$4,500	$5.02	43d	1	0.96mi
925 Wind Drift Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.5	1110	$3,895	$3.51	43d	1	1.02mi
6555 Sea Gate Rd Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1114	$4,095	$3.67	1d	3	1.05mi
1967 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	929	$5,359	$5.77	1d	7	1.42mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $338,000 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $338,000 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $338,000 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $338,000 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $338,000 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $338,000 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $338,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $338,000 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $338,000 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $338,000 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $338,000 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $338,000 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $338,000 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $338,000 Active 141 DOM
15. 2026-04-07
    price $375,000 1101-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1101 chars)

    Welcome Home to Lakeshore Gardens, an exclusive 55+ gated community west of I-5 minutes from South Carlsbad State Beach. Live the coastal lifestyle, relax on the front porch & private patio while sipping your morning coffee & enjoying the afternoon ocean breeze. Spacious open floor plan with contemporary kitchen & large quartz-top island creates an inviting entertaining space. Primary bathroom features an elegant dual sink vanity with custom tiled oversized walk-in shower. The covered carport accommodates up to 2 vehicles with a screened-in addition perfect for arts & crafts/workshop or secure storage. Lakeshore Gardens is a premier resort-style community in Carlsbad with exclusive use amenities to include a community room, heated pool, spa, patios with outdoor BBQ, fitness center, library & RV parking. The peaceful park-like setting with greenbelts & walking paths & 10 lakes throughout the community are home to birds & aquatic life. This neighborhood is conveniently located near Carlsbad beaches, shopping, dining & transportation.

16. 2026-01-11
    listed $395,000 Active 1101-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1101 chars)

    Welcome Home to Lakeshore Gardens, an exclusive 55+ gated community west of I-5 minutes from South Carlsbad State Beach. Live the coastal lifestyle, relax on the front porch & private patio while sipping your morning coffee & enjoying the afternoon ocean breeze. Spacious open floor plan with contemporary kitchen & large quartz-top island creates an inviting entertaining space. Primary bathroom features an elegant dual sink vanity with custom tiled oversized walk-in shower. The covered carport accommodates up to 2 vehicles with a screened-in addition perfect for arts & crafts/workshop or secure storage. Lakeshore Gardens is a premier resort-style community in Carlsbad with exclusive use amenities to include a community room, heated pool, spa, patios with outdoor BBQ, fitness center, library & RV parking. The peaceful park-like setting with greenbelts & walking paths & 10 lakes throughout the community are home to birds & aquatic life. This neighborhood is conveniently located near Carlsbad beaches, shopping, dining & transportation.

17. 2005-08-28
    historical
18. 2005-07-13
    listed $174,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,933
• − Property taxes: −$5,070
• − Insurance: −$1,690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,372
• − Management: −$4,372
• − Depreciation: −$9,833
• Taxable income: $10,375
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,490
• After-tax cash flow: $12,649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and is move-in ready with a well-maintained exterior and interior. The home has a good kitchen and bathroom, and the landscaping is well-maintained. The home has a good roof and flooring, and the interior walls and paint are in good condition. The home has a good systems rating and no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The home has a good rehab level and is move-in ready with a good condition score of 80. The home has a good kitchen and bathroom, and the landscaping is well-maintained. The home has a good roof and flooring, and the interior walls and paint are in good condition. The home has a good systems rating and no visible repairs or maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing
• Both Lighting — Improved lighting can make the home more inviting

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing ↑
• Both Lighting — Improved lighting can make the home more inviting ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlsbad Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,200
• Composite: 65.11/100
• National rank: #1068
• State rank: #87 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,190
• Household income: $159,235
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 714.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 399.8502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+114.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $375,000 SDMLS
• 2026-01-11 Listed $395,000 SDMLS
• 2005-08-28 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2005-07-13 Listed $174,900 CRMLS