16253 Bergara Bend Dr · Patton Village, TX 77357

$202,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · SingleFamily · 14 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $231k · 12% under $192/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Idlewood Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Outdoor space

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• TWO SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (Idlewood plan); Spec home — active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,461 (living area provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Idlewood plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $203k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($201/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $203k).
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 5.2% in Patton Village — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#977 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 986 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.35%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $230,838
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16229 Bergara Bend Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-1%)	1mo	$235,990	$163	86
16226 Bergara Bend Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-3%)	1mo	$243,990	$172	83
16218 Bergara Bend Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-4%)	1mo	$235,990	$167	81
21344 Pine Mill Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-3%)	3mo	$222,000	$157	77
16246 Bergara Bend Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	0mo	$231,990	$177	75
16206 Bergara Bend Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	1mo	$231,990	$177	74
20807 Olive Leaf St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-1%)	4mo	$225,000	$156	72
21307 Pine Mill Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,591 (+9%)	2mo	$225,000	$141	64
16225 Bergara Bend Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+13%)	1mo	$260,990	$158	61
16210 Bergara Bend Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+13%)	1mo	$256,990	$155	61
20723 Southern Woods Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,506 (+3%)	4mo	$215,000	$143	60
21079 Wenze Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+15%)	4mo	$220,000	$131	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-37,248
• Equity at exit: $30,266

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-52,077
• Equity at exit: $17,551

Cash invested: $56,837 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,065
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$254 /mo · $3,045/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,019

Max offer price $202,990

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $157	-5% $87	+0% $17	+5% $-53	+10% $-124
Rent	-10% $-144	-5% $-64	+0% $17	+5% $97	+10% $178
Rate	-1.0pp $119	-0.5pp $68	base $17	+0.5pp $-36	+1.0pp $-89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,748
• Closing costs: $6,090
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	26d	1	0.61mi
14255 Timber Fields Way New Caney, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$1,622	$0.90	7d	57	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $202,990 Pending 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $202,990 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $202,990 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 636-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $202,990 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $202,990 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $202,990 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $202,990 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $202,990 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $202,990 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    remarks 597-char remark
12. 2026-06-04
    listing id $202,990 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 415-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $202,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,371
• − Property taxes: −$3,045
• − Insurance: −$1,015
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$5,905
• Taxable loss: −$3,077
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$738
• After-tax cash flow: $939/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home features a spacious open floorplan with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is in good condition with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value
• Rental Replace the curtains — Fresh curtains can make the home more inviting for potential renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Rental Replace the curtains — Fresh curtains can make the home more inviting for potential renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Patton Village

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #977
• US rank: #17313

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B