6833 Mill Rd · Northfield, NJ 08234

$649,900

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,416 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2003 $269/sqft · 15% above area Est $567k · 15% over ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.9/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Two Story Home Situated On Approximately 1 Acre Of Land. Consists Of Living Room, Dining Room, Spacious Center Island Kitchen, Breakfast Nook, Roomy 1st Floor Master Suite with Tiled Bath And Whirlpool Tub. Rear Deck And Large Fenced In Yard. Easy To Show!!! Home Warranty Included

Key facts

• Approximately 1 acre
• Huge rear deck
• Two story home

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• APPROXIMATELY 1 ACRE
• SPACIOUS CENTER ISLAND KITCHEN
• NEW TILED WALK IN SHOWER
• HUGE REAR DECK
• CABANA WITH TV

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $638 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $650k).
• Recommended offer: $630k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.8% in Northfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in NJ, #3,997 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Egg Harbor Township School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #311 of 472 in NJ (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fernwood Avenue Middle School (math 13% / reading 50%, grade F, #289 of 431 statewide, top 69%, 883 students, 50% FRL); Egg Harbor Township High School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #169 of 399 statewide, top 44%, 2,335 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($630k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask is 132% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $255k; list at $650k implies a 155% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $630,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.21%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $567,115
• List price: $649,900
• Delta: 14.60%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1314 W Mill Rd	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,304 (-5%)	14mo	$580,000	$252	62
2611 Cedarbridge Rd	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,500 (+4%)	1mo	$551,000	$220	58
6829 Mill Rd	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,682 (+11%)	20mo	$550,000	$205	57
3360 Bargaintown Rd	0.58mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,400 (-1%)	13mo	$458,000	$191	52
2 Jenny Lynn	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,721 (+13%)	6mo	$674,000	$248	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-64,530
• Equity at exit: $96,902

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-3,341
• Equity at exit: $56,191

Cash invested: $181,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08234

• Home prices YoY: -6.7%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,542 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,408
• Tax from tax record: −$851 /mo · $10,206/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,374
• Net cashflow: $638

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,734

Max offer price $649,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,006	-5% $822	+0% $638	+5% $454	+10% $270
Rent	-10% $122	-5% $380	+0% $638	+5% $897	+10% $1,155
Rate	-1.0pp $966	-0.5pp $804	base $638	+0.5pp $470	+1.0pp $299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,475
• Closing costs: $19,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 Julie Dr Northfield, NJ	5.0	3.5	2860	$7,000	$2.45	45d	1	0.21mi
49 Fairhill Ave Egg Harbor Township, NJ	4.0	2.5	2208	$3,750	$1.70	15d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $649,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $649,900 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $649,900 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $649,900 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $649,900 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $649,900 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $649,900 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $649,900 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $649,900 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $649,900 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $649,900 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-05-12
    listed $649,900 Active 580-char remark
13. 2012-04-30
    soldstatus $255,000
14. 2012-04-06
    historical
15. 2012-02-01
    listed $279,900

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Beautiful Two Story Home Situated On Approximately 1 Acre Of Land. Consists Of Living Room, Dining Room, Spacious Center Island Kitchen, Breakfast Nook, Roomy 1st Floor Master Suite with Tiled Bath And Whirlpool Tub. Rear Deck And Large Fenced In Yard. Easy To Show!!! Home Warranty Included

16. 2012-02-01
    historical

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Beautiful Two Story Home Situated On Approximately 1 Acre Of Land. Consists Of Living Room, Dining Room, Spacious Center Island Kitchen, Breakfast Nook, Roomy 1st Floor Master Suite with Tiled Bath And Whirlpool Tub. Rear Deck And Large Fenced In Yard. Easy To Show!!! Home Warranty Included

17. 2011-02-18
    listed $279,900

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Beautiful Two Story Home Situated On Approximately 1 Acre Of Land. Consists Of Living Room, Dining Room, Spacious Center Island Kitchen, Breakfast Nook, Roomy 1st Floor Master Suite with Tiled Bath And Whirlpool Tub. Rear Deck And Large Fenced In Yard. Easy To Show!!! Home Warranty Included

18. 2011-01-31
    historical
19. 2010-09-17
    listed $359,000
20. 2005-04-07
    soldstatus $377,500
21. 2005-03-30
    soldstatus $377,500
22. 2005-03-29
    soldstatus $377,500
23. 2005-01-29
    historical
24. 2005-01-28
    historical
25. 2004-11-09
    listed $385,000
26. 2004-03-29
    listed $399,000
27. 2003-08-01
    soldstatus $42,500
28. 2003-07-29
    soldstatus $264,500
29. 2003-01-28
    historical
30. 2003-01-06
    listed $269,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,206 · $851/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,194 · $1,100/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,988/yr (+$249/mo · 29.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $78,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,405
• − Property taxes: −$10,206
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,280
• − Management: −$6,280
• − Depreciation: −$18,906
• Taxable loss: −$2,827
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$679
• After-tax cash flow: $8,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Egg Harbor Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3404560
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $71,612
• Composite: 29.81/100
• National rank: #6421
• State rank: #311 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Northfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #3997

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 46,856

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 13% Black 9% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.76%
• Current HPI: 319.2948
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-5.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2012-04-30 Sold (MLS) $255,000 SJSRMLS
• 2012-04-06 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2012-02-01 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2012-02-01 Listed $279,900 SJSRMLS
• 2011-02-18 Listed $279,900 SJSRMLS
• 2011-01-31 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2010-09-17 Listed $359,000 SJSRMLS
• 2005-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $377,500 Public Records
• 2005-03-30 Sold (MLS) $377,500 SJSRMLS
• 2005-03-29 Sold (MLS) $377,500 SJSRMLS
• 2005-01-29 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2005-01-28 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2004-11-09 Listed $385,000 SJSRMLS
• 2004-03-29 Listed $399,000 SJSRMLS
• 2003-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 2003-07-29 Sold (MLS) $264,500 SJSRMLS
• 2003-01-28 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2003-01-06 Listed $269,500 SJSRMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,206 · +12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.