521 Buchanan Rd · Utica, NY 13502

$195,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 975 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1958 7,000 sqft lot $200/sqft · 9% below area Est $214k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a must see corner lot, North Utica Ranch that is within walking distance of Thomas Jefferson Elementary School! Just a few features of this three bedroom home include a recently remodeled kitchen and bathroom, a dedicated living room space as well as a heated one stall attached garage. Truly move-in ready from day one, what are you waiting for? Come take a look today!

Key facts

• Corner lot
• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• RECENTLY REMODELED KITCHEN
• RECENTLY REMODELED BATHROOM
• DEDICATED LIVING ROOM SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Utica City School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #562 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $195k implies a 322% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $178,340 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.26%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,100
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -8.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
615 Cosby Rd	0.10mi	3/1.5	984 (+1%)	10mo	$189,100	$192	83
517 Locust Dr	0.10mi	3/1.5	912 (-6%)	5mo	$213,200	$234	78
517 Coolidge Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,008 (+3%)	4mo	$180,000	$179	78
417 Locust Dr	0.16mi	3/1.5	864 (-11%)	0mo	$215,000	$249	71
421 Spruce St	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,008 (+3%)	2mo	$170,000	$169	68
415 Cypress St	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-2%)	8mo	$225,000	$234	66
705 Dawes Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,074 (+10%)	10mo	$175,900	$164	59
2 Dawes Ct E	0.32mi	3/1.0	858 (-12%)	7mo	$169,900	$198	59
492 Trenton Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0	960 (-2%)	13mo	$160,000	$167	59
719 Dawes Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0	858 (-12%)	9mo	$162,000	$189	56
706 Dawes Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,098 (+13%)	10mo	$200,000	$182	54
420 Spruce St	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-11%)	12mo	$165,000	$191	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-19,318
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,160
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13502

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,783 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,336/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,538

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
119 Hotel St Utica, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1053	$2,300	$2.18	43d	14	1.42mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-03
   price $195,000 378-char remark

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   This is a must see corner lot, North Utica Ranch that is within walking distance of Thomas Jefferson Elementary School! Just a few features of this three bedroom home include a recently remodeled kitchen and bathroom, a dedicated living room space as well as a heated one stall attached garage. Truly move-in ready from day one, what are you waiting for? Come take a look today!

2. 2026-03-20
   listed $205,000 Active 378-char remark

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   This is a must see corner lot, North Utica Ranch that is within walking distance of Thomas Jefferson Elementary School! Just a few features of this three bedroom home include a recently remodeled kitchen and bathroom, a dedicated living room space as well as a heated one stall attached garage. Truly move-in ready from day one, what are you waiting for? Come take a look today!

3. 2025-10-29
   soldstatus $46,250
4. 2004-05-03
   soldstatus $77,000
5. 2001-10-05
   soldstatus $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,336 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,316 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$980/yr (+$82/mo · 73.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,336
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,712
• − Management: −$1,712
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$930
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$223
• After-tax cash flow: $2,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica City School District
• NCES district ID: 3629370
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,834
• Composite: 29.01/100
• National rank: #6613
• State rank: #562 of 590 in NY

Livability — Utica

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #1589

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Utica, NY
• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 72,968
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,037
• Household income: $57,835
• Rent vs Own: 40.8% rent · 59.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1604.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.76%
• Current HPI: 368.3955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+248.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $195,000 CNYIS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $205,000 CNYIS
• 2025-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $46,250 Public Records
• 2004-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2001-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,336 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.