7128 Johnson St · Merrillville, IN 46410

$298,025

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,616 sqft · Land · 50 Days on market

Built 2026 6,751 sqft lot $130/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Imagine waking up in a sun-filled home designed for comfort, space, and modern living AND then realizing it can be yours this June 2026! This to-be-built 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath Savannah Cove home offers a beautifully balanced layout that blends style, functionality, and extended-term value in one thoughtfully crafted design. A standout feature of this home is the sunroom, creating a bright and versatile space perfect for relaxing, working from home, entertaining, or enjoying natural light year-round. The open-concept living area flows seamlessly into a modern kitchen featuring quartz countertops, quality cabinetry, stainless steel undermount sink, Moen fixtures, and a spacious pantry, designed

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Spacious pantry
• Primary suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• MODERN KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• PRIMARY SUITE
• TWO WALK-IN CLOSETS

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-505 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (24.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (28.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#50 in IN, #3,393 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Merrillville Community School Corporation (suburban): math 22% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #240 of 301 in IN (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Homer Iddings Elementary School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #790 of 994 statewide, top 81%, 488 students, 69% FRL); Pierce Middle School (math 18% / reading 37%, grade F, #230 of 330 statewide, top 71%, 919 students, 70% FRL); Merrillville High School (math 19% / reading 55%, grade F, #247 of 369 statewide, top 70%, 2,042 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 50% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 272 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($289k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,280 (28.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.26%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-77,937
• Equity at exit: $44,436

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-98,786
• Equity at exit: $25,768

Cash invested: $83,447 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46410

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 272
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,133 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$373 /mo · $4,470/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$130
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-505

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,772

Max offer price $224,998

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-299	-5% $-402	+0% $-505	+5% $-608	+10% $-711
Rent	-10% $-673	-5% $-589	+0% $-505	+5% $-420	+10% $-336
Rate	-1.0pp $-355	-0.5pp $-429	base $-505	+0.5pp $-582	+1.0pp $-660

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,506
• Closing costs: $8,941
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6839 Harrison St Merrillville, IN	3.0	1.0	1128	$1,650	$1.46	14d	1	0.54mi
6850 Van Buren Pl Merrillville, IN	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,795	$1.60	22d	1	0.55mi
7302 W Taft St Unit A Merrillville, IN	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,510	$1.40	45d	1	0.64mi
1865 W 64th Pl Merrillville, IN	4.0	2.0	2034	$4,900	$2.41	45d	1	0.84mi
691 W 77th Ave Unit 691 Merrillville, IN	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,300	$1.77	9d	1	0.93mi
330 E 69th Pl Merrillville, IN	3.0	1.5	1482	$1,850	$1.25	3d	1	1.18mi
8201 Polo Club Dr Merrillville, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1200	$2,137	$1.78	0d	16	1.46mi
3710 W 73rd Pl Unit 3714 W 73rd Place, Merrillville, IN 46410 Merrillville, IN	2.0	1.5	1150	$1,450	$1.26	9d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $130 · $1,560/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-23
   listed $298,025 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,694
• − Property taxes: −$4,470
• − Insurance: −$1,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,047
• − Management: −$2,047
• − HOA: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$8,670
• Taxable loss: −$11,386
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,733
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merrillville Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1809690
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $54,401
• Composite: 25.74/100
• National rank: #7375
• State rank: #240 of 301 in IN

Livability — Merrillville

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #3393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Merrillville, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 39,243
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 39,243
• Household income: $64,127
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1644.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 46% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -180.11%
• Current HPI: 240.8833
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.10%
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Pending — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Listed $298,025 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid