Breckenridge Plan · Ashland, NE 68003

$310,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · SingleFamily · 681 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Cash flow +2.6/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is not built and is a sample of an available plan in this neighborhood. Lot not included in price. Our Breckenridge plan is a 3-bedroom, 2.5 bathroom two-story with 1,848 square feet. It features a stunning grand entryway. An open-concept kitchen, dining, and living room compliment the large mudroom, powder bath, and walk-in pantry on the main floor. The second floor features the primary suite with walk-in closet, two additional bedrooms with jack-and-jill bathroom, and laundry.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 681 days

🏗️ New construction. The $310,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $417,215.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $311k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (32.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (40.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (40.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 1.8% in Ashland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#8 in NE, #712 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Ashland-Greenwood Public Schools (town): math 51% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #50 of 111 in NE (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 138 units permitted in Saunders County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $559 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Saunders County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 681 days — a 12% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $185,000 (40.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 681 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.44% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.60%
• DSCR: 0.35
• GRM: 18.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $417,215
• List price: $310,900
• Delta: -25.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
840 Whitetail Run Cir	0.20mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,100 (+14%)	1mo	$460,000	$219	62
864 Whitetail Run	0.20mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,121 (+15%)	8mo	$375,000	$177	55
542 Cedar St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,688 (-9%)	10mo	$255,000	$151	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-100,096
• Equity at exit: $123,949

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-145,924
• Equity at exit: $151,248

Cash invested: $116,820 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68003

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,188
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$522 /mo · $6,258/yr
• Insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-1,422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,650

Max offer price $211,481

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,133	-5% $-1,278	+0% $-1,422	+5% $-1,566	+10% $-1,710
Rent	-10% $-1,568	-5% $-1,495	+0% $-1,422	+5% $-1,349	+10% $-1,276
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,212	-0.5pp $-1,316	base $-1,422	+0.5pp $-1,530	+1.0pp $-1,640

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,304
• Closing costs: $12,516
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2724 Silver St Unit 101 Ashland, NE	2.0	2.0	1299	$1,850	$1.42	2d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $310,900 Active 681 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $310,900 Active 680 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $310,900 Active 679 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $310,900 Active 678 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $310,900 Active 676 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $310,900 Active 673 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $310,900 Active 672 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $310,900 Active 671 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $310,900 Active 670 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $310,900 Active 667 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,900 Active 666 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,900 Active 665 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,900 Active 664 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,900 Active 663 DOM
15. 2024-12-17
    price $310,900 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    This home is not built and is a sample of an available plan in this neighborhood. Lot not included in price. Our Breckenridge plan is a 3-bedroom, 2.5 bathroom two-story with 1,848 square feet. It features a stunning grand entryway. An open-concept kitchen, dining, and living room compliment the large mudroom, powder bath, and walk-in pantry on the main floor. The second floor features the primary suite with walk-in closet, two additional bedrooms with jack-and-jill bathroom, and laundry.

16. 2024-08-07
    listed $299,750 Active 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    This home is not built and is a sample of an available plan in this neighborhood. Lot not included in price. Our Breckenridge plan is a 3-bedroom, 2.5 bathroom two-story with 1,848 square feet. It features a stunning grand entryway. An open-concept kitchen, dining, and living room compliment the large mudroom, powder bath, and walk-in pantry on the main floor. The second floor features the primary suite with walk-in closet, two additional bedrooms with jack-and-jill bathroom, and laundry.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,371
• − Property taxes: −$6,258
• − Insurance: −$2,086
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,776
• − Management: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$12,137
• Taxable loss: −$25,204
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,049
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ashland-Greenwood Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3100034
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,116
• Composite: 45.72/100
• National rank: #2573
• State rank: #50 of 111 in NE

Livability — Ashland

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #712

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,953

Population outlook (Saunders County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,261 people
• By 2030: 21,249 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 20,927 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 20,041 · -5.7%
• By 2075: 18,386 · -13.5%
• By 2100: 15,066 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saunders

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.4) · D 26.2% · R 72.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -46.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.4 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+33.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.13%
• Current HPI: 293.1932
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+3.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-17 Price Changed $310,900 Zillow
• 2024-08-07 Listed $299,750 Zillow