16 Championship Dr · Haines City, FL 33837

$178,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 879 sqft · Manufactured · 225 Days on market

Built 1997 2,452 sqft lot $155/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Park Model On DEER CREEK GOLF COURSE fairway #1 is partially furnished on OWNED land with East facing 4-seasons FL room & patio. It has 2-vehicle Carport, Covered Walkway and Stairs to front entry. 2 Bedroom / Great Room / Updated Full Bath with Laundry / Solid Surface Floors throughout. 2025 updates: Shingled Roof, Underhome Armor Tie-Down System, Water Heater, Dual side-rail stairs from 4-seasons room to the GOLF COURSE frontage patio. 2024 updates: Fiberglass front door and storm door. 2023 updates: Bath Fitter shower & LG French door refrigerator. 2022 Updates: Bryant 3-ton 14 Seer A/C & heat pump, Carport, Covered walkway, Stairs, GE stacked washer/dryer, Maytag micro

Key facts

• Updated full bath
• Water heater
• Shingled roof

Tags

• EAST-FACING 4-SEASONS FL ROOM
• 2-VEHICLE CARPORT
• UPDATED FULL BATH
• SOLID SURFACE FLOORS
• SHINGLED ROOF
• WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Buyer approval required for community; Directions available (I-4 Exit 55 to Deer Creek, through community gates; park in driveway)
• Financial info: Total annual fees approximately $1,860; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA required; monthly fee $155 (includes common area taxes, pool, grounds maintenance, private road, recreational facilities, trash, water); Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities, gated community, golf course, vehicle restrictions, fence restrictions; Association approval required; Part of a senior community; Pets allowed with restrictions (breed, number, size; max pet weight 35 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway parking; Off-street parking; Carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Gated community with security gate; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Underground utilities; Cable available; High-speed internet / broadband available; Phone available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One level; Park model with Florida room and patio facing golf course; Faces west; Completed condition; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Metal frame with vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered front porch and patio; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; In-ground heated pool with outside bath access; Level, paved, private lot; On golf course; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Bamboo; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Window treatments; Decorative electric, ventless free-standing fireplace (non-wood burning)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Inside laundry/utility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($355/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $178k).
• Recommended offer: $157k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Loughman Oaks Elementary School (math 36% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 1,052 students, 37% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 1396 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.71%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-32,085
• Equity at exit: $26,540

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-45,297
• Equity at exit: $15,390

Cash invested: $49,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33837

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 1396
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,791 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$222 /mo · $2,670/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$155
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,753

Max offer price $178,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $153	-5% $91	+0% $30	+5% $-32	+10% $-93
Rent	-10% $-112	-5% $-41	+0% $30	+5% $100	+10% $171
Rate	-1.0pp $119	-0.5pp $75	base $30	+0.5pp $-17	+1.0pp $-63

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,500
• Closing costs: $5,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1000 Deer Creek Blvd Davenport, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$1,399	$2.22	16d	1	0.22mi
170 Jack Nicklaus Ln Davenport, FL	2.0	2.5	1000	$1,300	$1.30	16d	1	0.30mi
7035 Broad Way Davenport, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	897	$2,264	$2.52	5d	20	0.66mi
5014 Apex Cir Davenport, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	904	$1,963	$2.17	5d	24	0.74mi
2010 Jennifer Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	994	$1,803	$1.81	5d	27	0.89mi
3020 Base Blvd Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,019	$2.05	4d	54	0.89mi
1105 Grassy Lake Dr Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,742	$1.76	5d	103	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $155 · $1,860/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $178,000 Active 225 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $178,000 Active 222 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $178,000 Active 221 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $178,000 Active 220 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $178,000 Active 219 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $178,000 Active 217 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $178,000 Active 214 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $178,000 Active 213 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $178,000 Active 212 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $178,000 Active 211 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $178,000 Active 208 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $178,000 Active 206 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $178,000 Active 205 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $178,000 Active 204 DOM
15. 2026-03-21
    price $178,000
16. 2025-11-08
    listed $181,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,489
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,971
• − Property taxes: −$2,670
• − Insurance: −$890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,719
• − Management: −$1,719
• − HOA: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$5,178
• Taxable loss: −$2,518
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$604
• After-tax cash flow: $959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,389
• Household income: $81,276
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 424.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% White 36% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 22% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.62%
• Current HPI: 256.8165
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.73%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $178,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-08 Listed $181,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid