1405 Vegas Valley Dr #281 · Winchester, NV 89169

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,125 sqft · Condo public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1971 $469/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced BELOW market value for quick sale! This first floor 3 bedroom 2 bathroom Condominium can be your fist starter home. All 3 bedrooms have great size. Community offers pool and laundry area.

Key facts

• $469 HOA
• Parking
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#3 in NV, #2,272 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Clark County School District (urban): math 21% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #11 of 17 in NV (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Robert E Es (math 14% / reading 27%, grade F, #280 of 402 statewide, top 70%, 642 students, 100% FRL); Martin Roy W Ms (reading 31%, 1,271 students, 100% FRL); Valley Hs (math 8% / reading 24%, grade F, #107 of 131 statewide, top 82%, 2,714 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 52% district-wide (48 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.4%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 14,754 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (2,301 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,045/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($41k/yr) (locally 2744% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clark County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $160k implies a 247% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.27%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-19,174
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-22,823
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 71 Landlord-Friendly
• State Nevada: 71 Landlord-Friendly · R+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; Clark County (Vegas) had pandemic backlogs; generally landlord-friendly but courts slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 89169

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: -4.4%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,045 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $528/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$469
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,796

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $287	-5% $242	+0% $197	+5% $151	+10% $106
Rent	-10% $35	-5% $116	+0% $197	+5% $277	+10% $358
Rate	-1.0pp $277	-0.5pp $237	base $197	+0.5pp $155	+1.0pp $113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2999 Bel Air Dr Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1326	$2,700	$2.04	24d	1	0.38mi
1100 Tam O Shanter Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,100	$1.50	46d	1	0.47mi
3145 Bel Air Dr Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1305	$2,495	$1.91	24d	1	0.49mi
3159 Bel Air Dr Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1305	$2,750	$2.11	24d	1	0.52mi
900 E Desert Inn Rd Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$1,800	$1.67	46d	5	0.63mi
2080 Karen Ave Unit B63 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1188	$1,175	$0.99	26d	1	0.70mi
2080 Karen Ave #3 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1188	$1,200	$1.01	24d	1	0.74mi
2080 Karen Ave #46 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1360	$2,000	$1.47	46d	1	0.74mi
2158 E Desert Inn Rd Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.5	1210	$1,100	$0.91	22d	1	0.74mi
2236 E Desert Inn Rd Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.5	1178	$1,545	$1.31	1d	1	0.81mi
2831 Geary Pl #2909 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	1112	$1,899	$1.71	46d	1	0.88mi
3152 S Eastern Ave Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	987	$1,450	$1.47	26d	1	0.90mi
596 Tam O Shanter Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,750	$1.30	46d	1	0.93mi
3317 Racquet St Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1476	$1,595	$1.08	22d	1	1.01mi
1040 Canosa Ave Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	969	$1,745	$1.80	46d	1	1.03mi
3030 Plaza St Las Vegas, NV	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	46d	1	1.03mi
1601 E Katie Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	809	$1,852	$2.29	46d	13	1.06mi
511 E Sahara Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	46d	3	1.09mi
322 Karen Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1109	$3,500	$3.15	1d	4	1.10mi
322 Karen Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$3,500	$3.15	6d	3	1.10mi
1700 E Viking Rd Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,662	$1.53	46d	3	1.12mi
701 Canosa Ave Las Vegas, NV	4.0	3.0	1414	$3,300	$2.33	17d	1	1.18mi
701 Canosa Ave Las Vegas, NV	4.0	3.0	1414	$3,300	$2.33	10d	1	1.18mi
595 S Royal Crest Cir #18 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	816	$1,575	$1.93	46d	1	1.18mi
222 Karen Ave #4101 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1399	$4,000	$2.86	4d	1	1.18mi
544 Oakbrook Ln Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.5	1146	$1,950	$1.70	46d	1	1.21mi
2205 Santa Paula Dr Las Vegas, NV	4.0	2.0	1455	$3,495	$2.40	26d	1	1.22mi
2898 Pacific Ave Unit N/A Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1464	$2,000	$1.37	22d	1	1.26mi
1021 Griffith Ave Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1094	$2,200	$2.01	46d	1	1.26mi
1916 Howard Ave Las Vegas, NV	4.0	2.0	1296	$3,000	$2.31	26d	1	1.27mi
3550 Paradise Rd Las Vegas, NV	3.0	1.0–2.0	947	$1,750	$1.85	46d	20	1.28mi
525 E Saint Louis Ave Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,525	$1.39	46d	1	1.32mi
3930 University Center Dr Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0–3.0	1200	$1,725	$1.44	46d	2	1.33mi
2137 E Saint Louis Ave Las Vegas, NV	3.0	1.0	1028	$1,700	$1.65	46d	1	1.34mi
2938 Karen Ave Unit 1 Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,275	$0.88	10d	1	1.37mi
2938 E Karen Ave Unit 3 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,325	$1.10	10d	1	1.37mi
1816 Wengert Ave Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1281	$2,500	$1.95	20d	1	1.43mi
818 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1158	$2,895	$2.50	1d	33	1.47mi
350 E Desert Inn Rd Unit H203 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.5	849	$1,725	$2.03	46d	1	1.47mi
2017 Bracken Ave Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,880	$1.33	13d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $469 · $5,628/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $160,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    listed $160,000 Active 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Priced BELOW market value for quick sale! This first floor 3 bedroom 2 bathroom Condominium can be your fist starter home. All 3 bedrooms have great size. Community offers pool and laundry area.

16. 2025-12-24
    historical $1,350
17. 2025-12-17
    listed $175,000 Active
18. 2025-11-14
    price $1,350
19. 2025-10-22
    price $1,400
20. 2025-10-09
    listed $1,500
21. 2018-10-09
    historical
22. 2018-08-21
    listed $119,900 Active
23. 2013-12-31
    soldstatus $46,100 Sold
24. 2013-12-30
    soldstatus $46,100
25. 2013-11-10
    listed $45,500 Exclusive Right
26. 2010-02-05
    historical
27. 2009-12-08
    listed $45,000
28. 1991-10-17
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NV · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $528 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $944 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$416/yr (+$35/mo · 78.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$528
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,963
• − Management: −$1,963
• − HOA: −$5,628
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $38
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9
• After-tax cash flow: $2,350/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clark County School District
• NCES district ID: 3200060
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $53,611
• Composite: 26.48/100
• National rank: #7211
• State rank: #11 of 17 in NV

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #2272

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester, NV
• County: Clark County · 2,306,105 people
• City population: 39,883
• Metro: Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
• Population (ZIP): 22,171
• Household income: $40,904
• Rent vs Own: 80.7% rent · 19.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2744.0

Population outlook (Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,504,101 people
• By 2030: 2,693,770 · +7.6%
• By 2040: 3,061,208 · +22.2%
• By 2050: 3,400,072 · +35.8%
• By 2075: 4,139,522 · +65.3%
• By 2100: 4,596,916 · +83.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 33% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 13% Asian 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Clark

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.4% · R 47.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+10.7 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.91%
• Current HPI: 272.6449
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.43%
• Metro: Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NV)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Hotels / Casinos	3	$36B

Price history

+146.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $160,000 GLVAR
• 2025-12-24 Rental Removed $1,350 GLVAR
• 2025-12-17 Listed $175,000 GLVAR
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $1,350 GLVAR
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $1,400 GLVAR
• 2025-10-09 Listed for Rent $1,500 GLVAR
• 2018-10-09 Listing Removed — GLVAR
• 2018-08-21 Listed $119,900 GLVAR
• 2013-12-31 Sold (MLS) $46,100 GLVAR
• 2013-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $46,100 Public Records
• 2013-11-10 Listed $45,500 GLVAR
• 2010-02-05 Listing Removed — GLVAR
• 2009-12-08 Listed $45,000 GLVAR
• 1991-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $528 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.