4531 Little Rock Rd · Concord, MO 63128

$154,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · Condo public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1987

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated 2 bedroom and 2 full bath condo. Open living room and eat-in kitchen. Both bedrooms have enormous closet space. Hardwood floors throughout. Private patio with additional storage space. All appliances stay including newer refrigerator and washer/dryer combo. Community pool and reserved covered parking spot! Offering home warranty as well!

Key facts

• Open living room
• Private patio
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• ENORMOUS CLOSET SPACE
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• PRIVATE PATIO
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1987
• Construction: 1987 construction
• Exterior features: Located in the Concord subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-263/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in Concord — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#175 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Mehlville R-IX (suburban): math 31% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #126 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Trautwein Elem. (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #850 of 1,115 statewide, top 78%, 359 students, 42% FRL); Washington Middle (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #189 of 391 statewide, top 51%, 429 students, 40% FRL); Mehlville High School (math 26% / reading 54%, grade F, #243 of 521 statewide, top 47%, 1,440 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 22% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $155k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,380 (3.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.61%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-27,810
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-31,291
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63128

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,494 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA est. from 6 same-building comps: −$219
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,522

Max offer price $151,023

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $66	-5% $22	+0% $-22	+5% $-66	+10% $-110
Rent	-10% $-140	-5% $-81	+0% $-22	+5% $37	+10% $96
Rate	-1.0pp $56	-0.5pp $17	base $-22	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4333 Arrow Tree Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	899	$1,550	$1.72	45d	1	0.06mi
3779 Swiss Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	806	$1,719	$2.13	0d	6	0.38mi
6905 Colonial Woods Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	868	$1,450	$1.67	45d	1	0.47mi
39 Kassebaum Ln #206 Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,425	$1.43	9d	1	0.66mi
4372 Casa Brazilia Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$1,400	$1.66	0d	14	0.74mi
4650 E Concord Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	962	$1,895	$1.97	3d	1	0.79mi
4650 E Concord Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	962	$1,850	$1.92	0d	1	0.79mi
4334 Mcadoo Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	21d	1	0.81mi
4320 Mcadoo Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	45d	1	0.82mi
4851 Lemay Ferry Rd Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$1,665	$1.74	0d	8	0.92mi
4278 Chateau de Ville Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,350	$1.32	45d	1	0.95mi
1100 Kingbolt Circle Dr Unit 1106B St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	740	$1,125	$1.52	25d	1	1.08mi
4227 Drambuie Ln St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	824	$960	$1.17	45d	1	1.08mi
5010 Clayridge Dr Saint Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	919	$975	$1.06	45d	1	1.25mi
5226 Lemay Ferry Rd Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	775	$1,025	$1.32	4d	7	1.42mi
9435 Green Park Gardens Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	17d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $154,900 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 361-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $154,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,274 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,503 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$228/yr (+$19/mo · 17.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,926
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,434
• − Management: −$1,434
• − HOA: −$2,628
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$2,802
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$673
• After-tax cash flow: $409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mehlville R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2920670
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $62,254
• Composite: 35.19/100
• National rank: #4995
• State rank: #126 of 324 in MO

Livability — Concord

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #9260

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Concord, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 30,540
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,540
• Household income: $92,359
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Black 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.34%
• Current HPI: 211.4603
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+119.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $154,900 FSBO.com
• 2023-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $77,500 Public Records
• 2000-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $70,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,274 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.