1 Bay Dr #4603 · Kapalua, HI 96761

$209,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,065 sqft · Condo public records · 724 Days on market

Built 2008 $101/sqft · 24% above area Est $169k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.2/10.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Breathtaking views of Lanai are witnessed every day from this penthouse top floor, ideally located 3 bedroom, 3 ½ bath residence at Montage Kapalua Bay. This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 deeded days a year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is two consecutive weeks in early June each year (weeks 23 & 24) plus one float week (rotating in January-early February or Thnksgiving week). Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. The Association Dues are paid annually for this unit at Hawaii’s 4th and newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! See associated docs for 2026 remode specs. 3D Tour was taken from 4603’s lanai, the Video/Virtual Tour depicts the interior floor plan. Future deeded dates: 2025 June 7 - 21 2026 Nov 21 - 28, June 6 - 20 2027 Jan 2 - 9, June 5 - 19

Key facts

• Ocean views
• Deeded ownership
• Top floor residence

Tags

• OCEAN VIEWS
• TOP FLOOR RESIDENCE
• DEEDED OWNERSHIP
• FORBES 5 STAR PROPERTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath condo listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-45k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $209k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#102 in HI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 637 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 906 units permitted in Maui County in 2024 (289 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,692/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($101k/yr) (locally 835% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maui County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 724 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $117k; list at $209k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 119% of rent.

Recommended offer $183,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 724 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.72% ✓
• Cap rate: -15.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -76.13%
• DSCR: -2.39
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,108
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: 23.59%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -3.45×
• Total profit: $-260,470
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -7.38×
• Total profit: $-490,573
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96761

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 637
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,692 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$261 /mo · $3,135/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$6,765
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,195
• Net cashflow: $-3,713

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,392

Max offer price —

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3,568	-5% $-3,640	+0% $-3,713	+5% $-3,785	+10% $-3,857
Rent	-10% $-4,162	-5% $-3,937	+0% $-3,713	+5% $-3,488	+10% $-3,263
Rate	-1.0pp $-3,607	-0.5pp $-3,659	base $-3,713	+0.5pp $-3,767	+1.0pp $-3,822

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
70 Hui Rd F Lahaina, HI	3.0	2.0	2558	$6,500	$2.54	4d	1	0.83mi
10 Wailele Kai Ln Lahaina, HI	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1390	$6,160	$4.43	4d	8	1.29mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pooldoorman
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 724 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $209,000 Active 723 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 721 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 719 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 718 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 716 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 715 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 714 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 713 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 710 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 709 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 708 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 707 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 706 DOM
15. 2026-01-09
    soldstatus $116,900 Sold 1047-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

    Breathtaking views of Lanai are witnessed every day from this penthouse top floor, ideally located 3 bedroom, 3 ½ bath residence at Montage Kapalua Bay. This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 deeded days a year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is two consecutive weeks in early June each year (weeks 23 & 24) plus one float week (rotating in January-early February or Thnksgiving week). Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. The Association Dues are paid annually for this unit at Hawaii’s 4th and newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! See associated docs for 2026 remode specs. 3D Tour was taken from 4603’s lanai, the Video/Virtual Tour depicts the interior floor plan. Future deeded dates: 2025 June 7 - 21 2026 Nov 21 - 28, June 6 - 20 2027 Jan 2 - 9, June 5 - 19

16. 2025-11-05
    status Pending - Do not Show 1047-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

    Breathtaking views of Lanai are witnessed every day from this penthouse top floor, ideally located 3 bedroom, 3 ½ bath residence at Montage Kapalua Bay. This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 deeded days a year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is two consecutive weeks in early June each year (weeks 23 & 24) plus one float week (rotating in January-early February or Thnksgiving week). Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. The Association Dues are paid annually for this unit at Hawaii’s 4th and newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! See associated docs for 2026 remode specs. 3D Tour was taken from 4603’s lanai, the Video/Virtual Tour depicts the interior floor plan. Future deeded dates: 2025 June 7 - 21 2026 Nov 21 - 28, June 6 - 20 2027 Jan 2 - 9, June 5 - 19

17. 2025-08-22
    price $179,000 1047-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

    Breathtaking views of Lanai are witnessed every day from this penthouse top floor, ideally located 3 bedroom, 3 ½ bath residence at Montage Kapalua Bay. This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 deeded days a year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is two consecutive weeks in early June each year (weeks 23 & 24) plus one float week (rotating in January-early February or Thnksgiving week). Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. The Association Dues are paid annually for this unit at Hawaii’s 4th and newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! See associated docs for 2026 remode specs. 3D Tour was taken from 4603’s lanai, the Video/Virtual Tour depicts the interior floor plan. Future deeded dates: 2025 June 7 - 21 2026 Nov 21 - 28, June 6 - 20 2027 Jan 2 - 9, June 5 - 19

18. 2025-03-17
    price $160,000 999-char remark

    Show marketing remark (999 chars)

    The Resort at Kapalua Bay, ex Montage. Breathtaking views of the ocean and Lanai await you every day, during your time in this rare top floor 3 Bedroom, 3 1/2 Bath residence. This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 deeded days a year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is two consecutive weeks in late February & early March each year (weeks 8 & 9) and one float week (in late August through early October), plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. Hawaii’s newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! Still photos depict this unit’s floorplan. The 3D tour is an actual video of this units views, as it was taken from 4603's lanai. Upcoming deeded time periods: 2026 Call for details

19. 2024-08-21
    listed $199,000 Active 1047-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

    Breathtaking views of Lanai are witnessed every day from this penthouse top floor, ideally located 3 bedroom, 3 ½ bath residence at Montage Kapalua Bay. This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 deeded days a year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is two consecutive weeks in early June each year (weeks 23 & 24) plus one float week (rotating in January-early February or Thnksgiving week). Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. The Association Dues are paid annually for this unit at Hawaii’s 4th and newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! See associated docs for 2026 remode specs. 3D Tour was taken from 4603’s lanai, the Video/Virtual Tour depicts the interior floor plan. Future deeded dates: 2025 June 7 - 21 2026 Nov 21 - 28, June 6 - 20 2027 Jan 2 - 9, June 5 - 19

20. 2024-06-24
    listed $195,000 Active 999-char remark

    Show marketing remark (999 chars)

    The Resort at Kapalua Bay, ex Montage. Breathtaking views of the ocean and Lanai await you every day, during your time in this rare top floor 3 Bedroom, 3 1/2 Bath residence. This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 deeded days a year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is two consecutive weeks in late February & early March each year (weeks 8 & 9) and one float week (in late August through early October), plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. Hawaii’s newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! Still photos depict this unit’s floorplan. The 3D tour is an actual video of this units views, as it was taken from 4603's lanai. Upcoming deeded time periods: 2026 Call for details

21. 2023-11-17
    soldstatus $345,900
22. 2021-12-08
    soldstatus $165,000 Sold
23. 2021-11-12
    status Active
24. 2021-02-18
    listed $169,000 Active
25. 2019-05-21
    soldstatus $122,500 Sold
26. 2019-05-08
    historical Pending - Continue to Show
27. 2019-04-18
    price $122,500
28. 2018-12-16
    listed $299,000 Active
29. 2018-10-14
    historical
30. 2017-10-13
    listed $369,000 Active
31. 2017-07-02
    historical
32. 2017-06-17
    listed $345,000
33. 2016-12-31
    listed $389,000 Active
34. 2013-06-13
    soldstatus $307,258

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $68,306
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$3,135
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,464
• − Management: −$5,464
• − HOA: −$81,180
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$45,770
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,985
• After-tax cash flow: $-33,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Kapalua

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #20456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kapalua, HI
• County: Maui County · 114,195 people
• Metro: Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI
• Population (ZIP): 20,952
• Household income: $101,123
• Rent vs Own: 39.2% rent · 60.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 835.0

Population outlook (Maui County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 185,013 people
• By 2030: 194,315 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 210,917 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 226,396 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 270,475 · +46.2%
• By 2100: 316,825 · +71.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: White 35% Asian 29% Two or more races 25% Hispanic / Latino 13% Pacific Islander 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 12% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Maui

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.9) · D 61.9% · R 36.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.3pp toward R · 2008: 55.2pp · 2024: 25.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.9 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+38.6 2012: D+50.3 2008: D+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.68%
• Current HPI: 389.2894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.97%
• Metro: Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-62.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-09 Sold (MLS) $116,900 RAM MLS
• 2025-11-05 Pending — RAM MLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $179,000 RAM MLS
• 2025-03-17 Price Changed $160,000 RAM MLS
• 2024-08-21 Listed $199,000 RAM MLS
• 2024-06-24 Listed $195,000 RAM MLS
• 2023-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $345,900 Public Records
• 2021-12-08 Sold (MLS) $165,000 RAM MLS
• 2021-11-12 Relisted — RAM MLS
• 2021-02-18 Listed $169,000 RAM MLS
• 2019-05-21 Sold (MLS) $122,500 RAM MLS
• 2019-05-08 Contingent — RAM MLS
• 2019-04-18 Price Changed $122,500 RAM MLS
• 2018-12-16 Listed $299,000 RAM MLS
• 2018-10-14 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2017-10-13 Listed $369,000 RAM MLS
• 2017-07-02 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2017-06-17 Listed $345,000 RAM MLS
• 2016-12-31 Listed $389,000 RAM MLS
• 2013-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $307,258 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $70,897 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.