12565 Melville Dr #124 · Conroe, TX 77356

$169,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,147 sqft · Condo public records · 152 Days on market

Built 2000 $147/sqft · 11% below area Est $190k · 11% under $350/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Unit 124 at La Posada, a beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo with GARAGE offering comfort, convenience, & resort-style living in the heart of Walden on Lake Conroe. This well-maintained unit features an open-concept layout with designer paint colors, granite in baths, & stainless appliances, along with a breakfast bar. The cozy fireplace adds warmth and charm to the spacious living area. Step outside to your private patio overlooking the pool—ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. As a resident of La Posada, you’ll enjoy full access to Walden on Lake Conroe's unmatched amenities, including: Multiple pools, Tennis, Gym, Boat Ramps, Dog Park, Walking Trails, Fishing & More. Located just a short walk to Lake Conroe, this unit offers the perfect blend of peaceful lakeside living with vibrant community features. Whether you’re looking for a weekend getaway, full-time, or investment, Unit 124 is ready and waiting for you!

Key facts

• Tennis
• Gym
• Boat ramps

Tags

• PRIVATE PATIO OVERLOOKING POOL
• FULL ACCESS TO AMENITIES
• MULTIPLE POOLS
• TENNIS
• GYM
• BOAT RAMPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (23.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $129k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1056 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,936 (23.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.75%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,243
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -11.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-46,539
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: -64.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-77,270
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1056
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,156/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$350
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,987

Max offer price $128,936

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-131	-5% $-179	+0% $-227	+5% $-275	+10% $-322
Rent	-10% $-361	-5% $-294	+0% $-227	+5% $-160	+10% $-93
Rate	-1.0pp $-142	-0.5pp $-184	base $-227	+0.5pp $-271	+1.0pp $-315

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12500 Melville Dr Unit 317B Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	902	$1,550	$1.72	44d	1	0.16mi
12500 Melville Dr Unit 227C Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	917	$1,700	$1.85	44d	1	0.16mi
12100 Melville Dr Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	964	$1,750	$1.82	44d	2	0.33mi
11243 Glenforest Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,699	$1.18	5d	1	1.07mi
11231 Glenforest Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,499	$1.01	22d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $350 · $4,200/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 136 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 135 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 134 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    price $169,000 987-char remark

    Show marketing remark (987 chars)

    Welcome to Unit 124 at La Posada, a beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo with GARAGE offering comfort, convenience, & resort-style living in the heart of Walden on Lake Conroe. This well-maintained unit features an open-concept layout with designer paint colors, granite in baths, & stainless appliances, along with a breakfast bar. The cozy fireplace adds warmth and charm to the spacious living area. Step outside to your private patio overlooking the pool—ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. As a resident of La Posada, you’ll enjoy full access to Walden on Lake Conroe's unmatched amenities, including: Multiple pools, Tennis, Gym, Boat Ramps, Dog Park, Walking Trails, Fishing & More. Located just a short walk to Lake Conroe, this unit offers the perfect blend of peaceful lakeside living with vibrant community features. Whether you’re looking for a weekend getaway, full-time, or investment, Unit 124 is ready and waiting for you!

16. 2026-02-06
    price $179,900 987-char remark

    Show marketing remark (987 chars)

    Welcome to Unit 124 at La Posada, a beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo with GARAGE offering comfort, convenience, & resort-style living in the heart of Walden on Lake Conroe. This well-maintained unit features an open-concept layout with designer paint colors, granite in baths, & stainless appliances, along with a breakfast bar. The cozy fireplace adds warmth and charm to the spacious living area. Step outside to your private patio overlooking the pool—ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. As a resident of La Posada, you’ll enjoy full access to Walden on Lake Conroe's unmatched amenities, including: Multiple pools, Tennis, Gym, Boat Ramps, Dog Park, Walking Trails, Fishing & More. Located just a short walk to Lake Conroe, this unit offers the perfect blend of peaceful lakeside living with vibrant community features. Whether you’re looking for a weekend getaway, full-time, or investment, Unit 124 is ready and waiting for you!

17. 2026-01-17
    listed $189,900 Active 987-char remark

    Show marketing remark (987 chars)

    Welcome to Unit 124 at La Posada, a beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo with GARAGE offering comfort, convenience, & resort-style living in the heart of Walden on Lake Conroe. This well-maintained unit features an open-concept layout with designer paint colors, granite in baths, & stainless appliances, along with a breakfast bar. The cozy fireplace adds warmth and charm to the spacious living area. Step outside to your private patio overlooking the pool—ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. As a resident of La Posada, you’ll enjoy full access to Walden on Lake Conroe's unmatched amenities, including: Multiple pools, Tennis, Gym, Boat Ramps, Dog Park, Walking Trails, Fishing & More. Located just a short walk to Lake Conroe, this unit offers the perfect blend of peaceful lakeside living with vibrant community features. Whether you’re looking for a weekend getaway, full-time, or investment, Unit 124 is ready and waiting for you!

18. 2025-09-30
    historical
19. 2025-06-01
    listed $189,900 Active
20. 2023-07-12
    historical
21. 2023-05-17
    price $199,900
22. 2023-02-28
    listed $212,200 Active
23. 2015-02-02
    soldstatus
24. 2011-03-30
    soldstatus
25. 2011-03-17
    soldstatus
26. 2011-03-08
    historical
27. 2011-01-31
    listed $74,000
28. 2009-09-02
    historical
29. 2009-07-02
    listed $76,500
30. 2009-06-18
    historical
31. 2009-01-10
    listed $79,000
32. 2006-12-29
    historical
33. 2006-08-14
    soldstatus
34. 2006-02-21
    listed $85,000
35. 2005-11-23
    soldstatus
36. 2005-06-01
    historical
37. 2004-08-01
    listed $83,900
38. 2001-07-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,156 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,156 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,399
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$3,156
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − HOA: −$4,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$5,450
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,308
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+101.4% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-01 Listed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2023-07-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-05-17 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2023-02-28 Listed $212,200 HARMLS
• 2015-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-03-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-03-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-03-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-01-31 Listed $74,000 HARMLS
• 2009-09-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-07-02 Listed $76,500 HARMLS
• 2009-06-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-01-10 Listed $79,000 HARMLS
• 2006-12-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-08-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-02-21 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2005-11-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-06-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-08-01 Listed $83,900 HARMLS
• 2001-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,156 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.