200 Lexington Ave Unit 8B · Oyster Bay, NY 11771

$375,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 750 sqft · Condo · 2 Days on market

Built 1960 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Cash flow +4.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Lexington Estates in the heart of Oyster Bay! This bright & spacious corner one bedroom co-op offers an abundance of natural light, a desirable open layout, and the added privacy of a corner location. Featuring hardwood floors, oversized windows, a generously sized living room and dining area, and a well-appointed kitchen, this home provides comfortable everyday living. Nestled within a beautifully maintained garden-style community with landscaped grounds, residents enjoy on-site laundry, storage, & ample parking. Conveniently located just moments from Oyster Bay Village, restaurants, shops, parks, beaches, marinas & the LIRR, offering an ideal blend of North Sho

Key facts

• Landscaped grounds
• Ample parking
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• OVERSIZED WINDOWS
• ON-SITE LAUNDRY
• AMPLE PARKING
• LANDSCAPED GROUNDS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces; Parking lot with unassigned spaces
• Utilities: Electric service: PSEG; Public sewer; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Stock cooperative; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Brick exterior
• Exterior features: Brick construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Entry level: 1
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating (natural gas); Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Entrance foyer; Galley-style kitchen; Granite counters; Common-area basement and storage space; Common laundry area; Cats allowed
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $375k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $364k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $318k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#436 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Oyster Bay-East Norwich Central School District (suburban): math 68% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #120 of 590 in NY (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Theodore Roosevelt School (325 students, 19% FRL); Oyster Bay Middle School (217 students, 19% FRL); Oyster Bay High School (math 63% / reading 68%, grade B, #773 of 1,100 statewide, top 70%, 415 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $318,403 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.91%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-126,500
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -54.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.84×
• Total profit: $-193,016
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11771

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,184 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$469 /mo · $5,625/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$966
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$669
• Net cashflow: $-1,042

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,503

Max offer price $224,198

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 South St Oyster Bay, NY	2.0	1.0	855	$4,150	$4.85	1d	1	0.44mi
108 South St Unit D Oyster Bay, NY	1.0	1.0	663	$3,150	$4.75	21d	1	0.44mi
21 Audrey Ave Unit D Oyster Bay, NY	1.0	1.0	600	$2,400	$4.00	21d	1	0.47mi
75 South St Oyster Bay, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$2,975	$3.72	24d	1	0.50mi
75 Maxwell Ave Apt B Oyster Bay, NY	2.0	1.0	836	$3,000	$3.59	43d	1	0.51mi
46 Maxwell Ave Oyster Bay, NY	2.0	1.5	850	$3,300	$3.88	43d	1	0.57mi
600 Pine Hollow Rd East Norwich, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$3,204	$3.20	1d	27	0.73mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 687-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $375,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$5,625
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,057
• − Management: −$3,057
• − HOA: −$11,592
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$18,912
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,539
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained one-bedroom co-op in Lexington Estates offers a bright and spacious living environment with modern amenities and a desirable corner location. The property is in good condition with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, which is important for rental properties.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, which is important for rental properties. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oyster Bay-East Norwich Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622290
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $100,262
• Composite: 62.11/100
• National rank: #710
• State rank: #120 of 590 in NY

Livability — Oyster Bay

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #436
• US rank: #7650

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oyster Bay, NY
• City population: 10,173
• Population (ZIP): 10,173

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 9% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.23%
• Current HPI: 255.4961
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $375,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid