123 Casa Grande Dr · Red Bluff, CA 96080

$69,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,349 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1977 Est $49k · 44% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tranquility awaits in Rio Vista Estates, come check out this oversized, 2 bedroom, 2 bath home in Red Bluff, CA! Enjoy the peaceful Community that runs along the River. The home has recently received new floors, and interior paint along with new appliances and fresh exterior paint. Stop by or give us a call today!

Key facts

• New floors
• Peaceful community
• New appliances

Tags

• PEACEFUL COMMUNITY
• NEW FLOORS
• NEW APPLIANCES
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Monthly land lease payment: $575

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Septic system; Water from district
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double-wide; Built in 1977
• Construction: Vinyl skirting; Other roof
• Exterior features: Storage shed(s); Greenbelt nearby

Interior

• Kitchen: Hood over range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fans; Evaporative cooler
• Interior features: Skylights in living room and kitchen; Kitchen and family room combined; Enclosed deck and porch; Storage area; Cats and dogs allowed
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry hookups available; Indoor laundry room; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 3.7% in Red Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#698 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: cost of living D, crime F, amenities F.
• Antelope Elementary (town): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #249 of 517 in CA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 262 active listings in the ZIP; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.22%
• DSCR: 2.83
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $48,564
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
162 Casa Grande Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-4%)	4mo	$78,000	$60	84
136 Casa Grande Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	5mo	$18,000	$13	84
95 Casa Grande Dr	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	6mo	$25,000	$17	83
112 Casa Grande Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	6mo	$45,000	$31	83
84 Casa Grande Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	13mo	$69,000	$48	77
118 Casa Grande Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	14mo	$28,000	$19	76
149 Casa Grande Dr Unit Rio Vista Estates	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	15mo	$81,000	$56	76
114 Casa Grande Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	17mo	$45,000	$31	74
142 Casa Grande Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	16mo	$40,000	$33	67
80 Casa Grande Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,540 (+14%)	8mo	$70,200	$46	64
103 Rio Vista Ln	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-8%)	17mo	$45,000	$36	64
90 Rio Vista Ln	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	14mo	$50,000	$42	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $1,729
• Equity at exit: $10,436

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $11,384
• Equity at exit: $6,051

Cash invested: $19,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96080

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,464 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,152

Max offer price $69,990

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,498
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,990 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,990 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,990 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,990 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,990 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,990 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,990 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,990 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,990 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 315-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $69,990 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$5,468
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,406
• − Management: −$1,406
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $2,285
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$548
• After-tax cash flow: $2,410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antelope Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0602760
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,985
• Composite: 32.77/100
• National rank: #5630
• State rank: #249 of 517 in CA

Livability — Red Bluff

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #698
• US rank: #21144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tehama County · 31,554 people
• City population: 31,554
• Metro: Red Bluff, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,554
• Household income: $66,076
• Rent vs Own: 36.3% rent · 63.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 981.0

Population outlook (Tehama County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,058 people
• By 2030: 59,493 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 56,076 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 52,372 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 43,895 · -28.1%
• By 2100: 34,186 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 13% Native American 3% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Tehama

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.8) · D 27.9% · R 69.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.8 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.80%
• Current HPI: 246.877
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Red Bluff, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $72 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.