2014 Concord Cir · Bellevue, NE 68147

$331,857

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily · 70 Days on market

Built 2025 6,534 sqft lot $193/sqft · 15% below area Est $392k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Photos and floorplans are renderings of future construction. Price includes home and lot. Sale is contingent upon buyer entering into a construction agreement with Orchard Valley Homes. Estimated completion timeline available upon request.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $332k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-315 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (37.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (37.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.3% in Bellevue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#1 in NE, #206 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, cost of living A+; Watch: commute D+.
• Bellevue Public Schools (suburban): math 47% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #67 of 111 in NE (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,612 units permitted in Sarpy County in 2024 (364 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarpy County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($312k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $207,035 (37.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.07%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $392,163
• List price: $331,857
• Delta: -15.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3004 Columbus Ave	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,610 (-6%)	6mo	$284,000	$176	56
2609 Geri Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,684 (-2%)	12mo	$260,000	$154	55
9804 S 20th St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,648 (-4%)	2mo	$315,000	$191	55
9701 S 24th St	0.64mi	4/2.5	1,674 (-3%)	10mo	$305,000	$182	55
2602 Tulip Ln	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,825 (+6%)	3mo	$352,000	$193	54
9607 S 24th St	0.63mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,780 (+4%)	8mo	$305,000	$171	49
2615 Georgia Ave	0.60mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,619 (-6%)	5mo	$283,000	$175	49
3009 Columbus Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,528 (-11%)	10mo	$200,000	$131	48
2705 Alberta Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (-9%)	4mo	$297,000	$190	48
2103 Morrie Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,811 (+5%)	5mo	$260,000	$144	47
9705 S 21st Ave	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,538 (-11%)	10mo	$295,000	$192	39
2714 Georgia Ave	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,523 (-12%)	11mo	$335,000	$220	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-74,041
• Equity at exit: $49,481

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-91,066
• Equity at exit: $28,693

Cash invested: $92,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68147

• Home prices YoY: -28.4%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,070 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,740
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $869/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,470

Max offer price $276,145

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-128	-5% $-221	+0% $-315	+5% $-409	+10% $-503
Rent	-10% $-479	-5% $-397	+0% $-315	+5% $-234	+10% $-152
Rate	-1.0pp $-148	-0.5pp $-231	base $-315	+0.5pp $-401	+1.0pp $-489

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,964
• Closing costs: $9,956
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8903 Florence Dr Bellevue, NE	3.0	3.0	1464	$2,100	$1.43	2d	1	0.40mi
2103 Morrie Dr Bellevue, NE	3.0	2.5	1811	$2,300	$1.27	24d	1	0.70mi
10712 S 15th St Bellevue, NE	3.0	1.0–2.0	911	$1,940	$2.13	2d	17	1.37mi
401 Chateau Dr Bellevue, NE	3.0	1.0–2.0	741	$1,354	$1.83	2d	12	1.47mi
10215 Cape Cod Lndg Bellevue, NE	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	985	$1,771	$1.80	2d	13	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $331,857 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $331,857 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $331,857 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $331,857 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $331,857 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $331,857 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $331,857 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $331,857 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $331,857 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $331,857 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $331,857 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-04-06
    listed $331,857 New 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Photos and floorplans are renderings of future construction. Price includes home and lot. Sale is contingent upon buyer entering into a construction agreement with Orchard Valley Homes. Estimated completion timeline available upon request.

13. 2026-04-06
    historical

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Photos and floorplans are renderings of future construction. Price includes home and lot. Sale is contingent upon buyer entering into a construction agreement with Orchard Valley Homes. Estimated completion timeline available upon request.

14. 2026-01-13
    listed $331,857 New
15. 2025-10-01
    historical
16. 2025-03-28
    listed $331,857 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $869 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,741 · $478/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,873/yr (+$406/mo · 561.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,844
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,589
• − Property taxes: −$869
• − Insurance: −$1,659
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,988
• − Management: −$1,988
• − Depreciation: −$9,654
• Taxable loss: −$9,902
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,376
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bellevue Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3103810
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $62,859
• Composite: 42.36/100
• National rank: #3248
• State rank: #67 of 111 in NE

Livability — Bellevue

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #206

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 55,788
• Population (ZIP): 12,738

Population outlook (Sarpy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 211,769 people
• By 2030: 229,365 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 264,122 · +24.7%
• By 2050: 298,087 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 381,667 · +80.2%
• By 2100: 448,180 · +111.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarpy

• 2024 margin: R (+11.7) · D 43.5% · R 55.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -15.9pp · 2024: -11.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.7 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+21.8 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+15.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.85%
• Current HPI: 252.1808
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $331,857 GPRMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $331,857 GPRMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
• 2025-03-28 Listed $331,857 GPRMLS

Property tax history

+38.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $869 · -9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.