11751 Noble Blossom Loop · Dade City, FL 33525

$358,440

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,463 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $352k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home boasts a modern layout with an open-concept floorplan consisting of a stylish kitchen, dining room and family room on the first floor. A convenient bedroom is located toward the back of the home, perfect as a guest suite or home office. Five additional bedrooms can be found upstairs, including the luxurious owner's suite, surrounding a versatile loft space.

Key facts

• Versatile loft space
• Stylish kitchen
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• VERSATILE LOFT SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price available

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family new construction; Plan name Jefferson
• Exterior features: Address: 11751 Noble Blossom Loop, Dade City, FL 33525

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Jefferson plan); Living area approximately 2463

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $358k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-141 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $338k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.6% in Dade City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 667 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,957/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 322% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $295,654 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.69%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $352,209
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11729 Brae Way	0.13mi	6/3.0	2,463 (0%)	10mo	$333,350	$135	86
11746 Brae Way	0.14mi	6/3.0	2,463 (0%)	11mo	$338,200	$137	84
11697 Brae Way	0.14mi	6/3.0	2,458 (-0%)	11mo	$351,900	$143	84
11990 Brae Way	0.24mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,451 (-0%)	9mo	$335,500	$137	76
12046 Brae Way	0.29mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,451 (-0%)	10mo	$332,000	$135	73
11721 Brae Way	0.13mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,326 (-6%)	10mo	$337,300	$145	70
11689 Brae Way	0.15mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,326 (-6%)	10mo	$318,900	$137	69
11678 Brae Way	0.18mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,326 (-6%)	11mo	$344,300	$148	67
11977 Brae Way	0.21mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,754 (+12%)	11mo	$365,100	$133	57
11713 Brae Way	0.13mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,112 (-14%)	10mo	$332,050	$157	54
11732 Brae Way	0.15mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,112 (-14%)	12mo	$331,510	$157	53
11592 Brae Way	0.23mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,112 (-14%)	8mo	$329,400	$156	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-66,986
• Equity at exit: $53,445

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-69,504
• Equity at exit: $30,991

Cash invested: $100,363 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 667
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,957 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,880
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$448 /mo · $5,377/yr
• Insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $-141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,136

Max offer price $337,975

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,610
• Closing costs: $10,753
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11357 Brae Way Dade City, FL	6.0	3.0	2463	$2,650	$1.08	3d	1	0.10mi
11413 Brae Way Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,700	$1.16	24d	1	0.12mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 383-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $358,440 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,478
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,078
• − Property taxes: −$5,377
• − Insurance: −$1,792
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,838
• − Management: −$2,838
• − Depreciation: −$10,427
• Taxable loss: −$7,872
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,889
• After-tax cash flow: $192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This modern two-story home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, and exterior. The home is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address. The highest-ROI updates include painting the exterior siding, replacing window treatments, and installing smart home devices.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Replace window treatments — New window treatments can improve both the aesthetic and energy efficiency of the home.
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters.
• Resale Upgrade flooring in bathrooms — Upgraded flooring can enhance the overall look and feel of the bathrooms.
• Rental Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — New window treatments can improve both the aesthetic and energy efficiency of the home. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrade flooring in bathrooms — Upgraded flooring can enhance the overall look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
• Rental Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 322.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B