8564 Lunar Skye St · Lake Sarasota, FL 34241

$325,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,597 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 2023 3,165 sqft lot $166/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Step inside and you’ll instantly feel at home in this bright and airy 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath with loft townhome. The kitchen is a true highlight with its oversized quart stone island, stone countertops, stainless steel appliances, and sleek ceramic tile flooring. This townhome features a full home filtered water and softening system, plus a reverse osmosis system for incredibly clean, great-tasting water throughout. The open kitchen, dining, and living area flows together and with those high ceilings and the patio view, plus being an end unit, it’s the perfect setup for hanging out and entertaining. This rare end unit is tucked inside the hig

Key facts

• Patio view
• Stone countertops
• High ceilings

Tags

• OVERSIZED QUART STONE ISLAND
• STONE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• HIGH CEILINGS
• PATIO VIEW

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Unfurnished
• Financial info: Other annual assessment reported
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Angela Indico) with required association approval; Monthly HOA approximately $166.67 (Quarterly fee $500); Association fees cover common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, insurance, structure and grounds maintenance, general maintenance, management, and pest control; Community features: community mailbox, deed restrictions, dog park, reclaimed water irrigation, park, playground, pool, sidewalks, street lights, buyer approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Attached property; Two stories; Faces southwest; Completed condition
• Construction: Cement siding and stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Taylor Morrison (Marigold model)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Hurricane shutters; Exterior lighting; Sidewalks; Sliding doors; Landscaped yard; Paved surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Kitchen reverse osmosis system; Whole-house reverse osmosis system
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Split bedroom floor plan; Walk-in closets; Attic; Loft; Inside utility
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $286k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#365 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview Elementary School (math 73% / reading 74%, grade A, #260 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 691 students, 29% FRL); Riverview High School (math 61% / reading 65%, grade B-, #89 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,597 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 564 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.56%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-45,185
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-54,774
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34241

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 564
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,370 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$386 /mo · $4,633/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$166
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$708
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,028

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $166 · $1,992/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   price $325,000
3. 2026-03-15
   price $335,000
4. 2026-02-24
   price $349,000
5. 2025-12-06
   listed $379,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,633 · $386/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,633 · $386/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,437
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,633
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,235
• − Management: −$3,235
• − HOA: −$1,992
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$1,942
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$466
• After-tax cash flow: $3,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Sarasota

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #365
• US rank: #6453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,408
• Household income: $116,412
• Rent vs Own: 11.1% rent · 88.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 69.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 3% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -363.72%
• Current HPI: 278.3404
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.05%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-14.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $325,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $335,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $349,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-06 Listed $379,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+86.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,633 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.