13974 Phoenix Dr · New Chapel Hill, TX 75707

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,485 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1989 2.52 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on a quiet dead-end road in Tyler, TX, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers a rare opportunity to own over 2.5 acres of land in a peaceful, private setting. With 1,485 square feet of living space, the home provides a functional layout ready for your vision, making it an ideal investment property. The true highlight of this property is the expansive 2.519 acres, offering endless potential for future improvements, additional structures, or simply enjoying wide-open space and privacy. Whether you're looking to add to your investment portfolio, create a rental, or secure land in a desirable area, this property delivers flexibility and value. Tucked away from through traffic, the setting provides a quiet, country feel while still being conveniently located just a short drive from Lake Tyler, where outdoor recreation, fishing, and boating await. With ample room to expand and plenty of possibilities, this property is a great opportunity to invest in land and location.

Key facts

• 2.52 acre lot
• Pool
• Built 1989

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: Single-story manufactured home; Residential property in Tucson Oaks
• Construction: Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Private outdoor above-ground pool; Composition roof; Lot approximately 2.52 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans; Window AC unit(s)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $564 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,275 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime D-.
• Chapel Hill ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #650 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.67%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $11,217
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $51,134
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75707

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,877 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,172/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $564

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,163

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $646	-5% $605	+0% $564	+5% $523	+10% $482
Rent	-10% $416	-5% $490	+0% $564	+5% $638	+10% $712
Rate	-1.0pp $637	-0.5pp $601	base $564	+0.5pp $526	+1.0pp $488

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $165,000 Active 989-char remark

    Show marketing remark (989 chars)

    Situated on a quiet dead-end road in Tyler, TX, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers a rare opportunity to own over 2.5 acres of land in a peaceful, private setting. With 1,485 square feet of living space, the home provides a functional layout ready for your vision, making it an ideal investment property. The true highlight of this property is the expansive 2.519 acres, offering endless potential for future improvements, additional structures, or simply enjoying wide-open space and privacy. Whether you're looking to add to your investment portfolio, create a rental, or secure land in a desirable area, this property delivers flexibility and value. Tucked away from through traffic, the setting provides a quiet, country feel while still being conveniently located just a short drive from Lake Tyler, where outdoor recreation, fishing, and boating await. With ample room to expand and plenty of possibilities, this property is a great opportunity to invest in land and location.

17. 2026-04-23
    listed $165,000 Active
18. 2026-01-22
    soldstatus
19. 1991-08-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,172 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,481/yr (+$123/mo · 126.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,518
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,172
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,801
• − Management: −$1,801
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $4,678
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,123
• After-tax cash flow: $5,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chapel Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813650
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,891
• Composite: 24.76/100
• National rank: #7603
• State rank: #650 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Chapel Hill

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1275
• US rank: #22160

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing B- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• City population: 16,355
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,532
• Household income: $84,954
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 304.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.97%
• Current HPI: 196.577
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.37%
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $165,000 GTAR
• 2026-04-23 Listed $165,000 LAAR
• 2026-01-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-08-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,172 · +27.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.