208 Timberlake Dr · McKean, PA 16426

$25,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1989

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW ROOF and matching covered porch installed November 2024. New windows put in the living room and one in the kitchen. Have all the windows to get replaced but have no help to replace them. Master bathroom needs TLC. Park approval required No aggressive dog breeds Being sold AS-IS, completely livable. SERIOUS INQUIRIES ONLY please. I can be reached by text/phone at [phone]

Key facts

• Covered porch
• New roof
• New windows

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• COVERED PORCH
• NEW WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $923 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 50.6% vs local median 1.7% in McKean — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#731 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• General Mclane SD (rural): math 50% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #85 of 539 in PA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $24,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 50.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 158.15%
• DSCR: 8.04
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.82×
• Total profit: $54,724
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.63×
• Total profit: $123,382
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16426

• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,379 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $304/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $923

Break-even live

Break-even rent $211

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 28%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $25,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $25,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $25,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $25,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $25,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $25,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $25,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $25,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $25,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $25,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $25,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 384-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    listed $25,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $304 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $349 · $29/mo
• Expected delta: +$46/yr (+$4/mo · 15.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$304
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,324
• − Management: −$1,324
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $11,344
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,722
• After-tax cash flow: $8,348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: General Mclane SD
• NCES district ID: 4210650
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,384
• Composite: 49.68/100
• National rank: #1971
• State rank: #85 of 539 in PA

Livability — McKean

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #731
• US rank: #7299

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,324

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.32%
• Current HPI: 244.3439
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $25,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $304 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.