2110 W 40th St · Mission, TX 78573

$199,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,712 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2007 5,998 sqft lot Est $317k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Cash flow +2.6/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious home has under gone a complete remodel. New tile floors downstairs, new stain master carpet upstairs, and all new appliances. Completely repainted and updated with new ceiling fans this home has 2 large living areas downstairs and the living area upstairs can be used as your new man cave or the fourth bedroom. A large backyard provides the space for the kids to play and those outdoor family events and fiestas. Bring your clients as at approx $56/sq ft its a great value for the family looking for a lot of space at the right price!! Seller is a licensed Realtor in the State of Texas Lic # 564346

Key facts

• 5,998 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2007

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered spaces (2 garage spaces total)
• Utilities: Public water; City sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Living area measured by appraiser
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Composition shingle roof; Building area approximately 3,172
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Other exterior features; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater; No conveying appliances
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Window unit(s); Electric cooling
• Interior features: Countertops: other; No window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-681 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (31.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (35.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lloyd M Bentsen El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 572 students, 86% FRL); Memorial Middle (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,177 of 1,662 statewide, top 72%, 700 students, 84% FRL); La Joya Palmview H S (math 20% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,155 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 54% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 623 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,080 (35.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.61%
• DSCR: 0.35
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $317,304
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1900 Magnolia St	0.29mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,469 (-9%)	3mo	$290,000	$117	64
1909 Magnolia St	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,393 (-12%)	23mo	$240,000	$100	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $64,974
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.01×
• Total profit: $224,490
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78573

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 623
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,291 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$570 /mo · $6,835/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $-681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,153

Max offer price $136,702

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-568	-5% $-625	+0% $-681	+5% $-738	+10% $-795
Rent	-10% $-783	-5% $-732	+0% $-681	+5% $-630	+10% $-579
Rate	-1.0pp $-581	-0.5pp $-631	base $-681	+0.5pp $-733	+1.0pp $-786

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 641-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $199,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,835 · $570/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,835 · $570/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$6,835
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,239
• − Management: −$1,239
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$11,836
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,841
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Joya ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826130
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,845
• Composite: 18.65/100
• National rank: #8891
• State rank: #759 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,809
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 855.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 63% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 88%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.95%
• Current HPI: 242.0711
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.45%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+70.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $199,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2019-07-17 Price Changed $151,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2019-06-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-06-26 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2019-05-27 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2019-05-26 Price Changed $152,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2019-05-19 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2019-02-28 Price Changed $152,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2018-12-17 Listed $154,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2018-11-01 Price Changed $100,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2018-11-01 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2018-10-17 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2018-10-17 Price Changed $117,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2018-10-02 Listed $117,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,835 · +26.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.