Oak Plan · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$199,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,365 sqft · SingleFamily · 443 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Oak is a spectacular home boasting three bedrooms and two bathrooms, the perfect essential layout for most any lifestyle. Upon entering the stunning Oak plan, feast your eyes on the inviting formal dining room - perfect for hosting dinner parties or having your whole family come together for the holidays. Beside your formal dining room rests your convenient walk-in utility room with direct access to your spacious two-car garage. Toward the right wing of the home is your second and third bedrooms accompanied by the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. Travel further throughout the home and you will find the flexible kitchen area that opens up to the family room, so you will never have to miss out on any moment with guests. Your kitchen comes equipped with sleek granite countertops paired with a ceramic tile backsplash, gorgeous flat-panel birch cabinets, industry-leading appliances, and stylish designer light fixtures. Conveniently attached to your family room is access to the backyard and the optional covered patio - perfect for relaxing outdoors and embracing the surrounding nature. Retreat to your private master suite, where you will discover singe or optional double sink, a super shower, and a walk-in closet. This well-designed plan is filled with energy-efficient features that keep you and your family's comfort at the forefront. Features like low E3 cube windows, third-party inspected insulation, and high-efficiency lighting all work together. ..

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Walk-in utility room
• Granite countertops

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• WALK-IN UTILITY ROOM
• SPACIOUS TWO-CAR GARAGE
• FLEXIBLE KITCHEN AREA
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CERAMIC TILE BACKSPLASH

🏗️ New construction. The $199,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $223,377.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-272/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.43%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,377
• List price: $199,990
• Delta: -10.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9553 Last Maples Trl	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,378 (+1%)	3mo	$219,000	$159	76
14131 Biscayne Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,365 (0%)	15mo	$217,850	$160	76
14119 Biscayne Trl	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,365 (0%)	18mo	$211,510	$155	73
2006 Summer Night Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,466 (+7%)	20mo	$246,100	$168	67
9529 Last Maples Trl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,373 (+1%)	19mo	$205,650	$150	65
14304 High Hill Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,373 (+1%)	18mo	$204,305	$149	58
14315 High Hill Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+3%)	19mo	$213,650	$152	55
9509 Last Maples Trl	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-9%)	18mo	$199,990	$160	55
9536 Last Maples Trl	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-9%)	18mo	$199,850	$160	52
9508 Last Maples Trl	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,459 (+7%)	19mo	$223,090	$153	51
9521 Last Maples Trl	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,553 (+14%)	11mo	$246,730	$159	49
14208 Sedona Ridge Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,567 (+15%)	10mo	$225,000	$144	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-43,251
• Equity at exit: $33,306

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-61,207
• Equity at exit: $19,314

Cash invested: $62,546 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,925 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,171
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$279 /mo · $3,351/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,954

Max offer price $220,103

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,844
• Closing costs: $6,701
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9302 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1628	$1,775	$1.09	44d	1	0.11mi
9262 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1601	$1,855	$1.16	1d	15	0.12mi
9248 Laiden Creek Trl Unit 510 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,992	$1.11	3d	1	0.13mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,990 Active 443 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,990 Active 442 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,990 Active 441 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,990 Active 440 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,990 Active 438 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,990 Active 434 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,990 Active 433 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,990 Active 432 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,990 Active 429 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,990 Active 428 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,990 Active 427 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,990 Active 426 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,990 Active 425 DOM
14. 2025-04-01
    listed $199,990 Active 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    The Oak is a spectacular home boasting three bedrooms and two bathrooms, the perfect essential layout for most any lifestyle. Upon entering the stunning Oak plan, feast your eyes on the inviting formal dining room - perfect for hosting dinner parties or having your whole family come together for the holidays. Beside your formal dining room rests your convenient walk-in utility room with direct access to your spacious two-car garage. Toward the right wing of the home is your second and third bedrooms accompanied by the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. Travel further throughout the home and you will find the flexible kitchen area that opens up to the family room, so you will never have to miss out on any moment with guests. Your kitchen comes equipped with sleek granite countertops paired with a ceramic tile backsplash, gorgeous flat-panel birch cabinets, industry-leading appliances, and stylish designer light fixtures. Conveniently attached to your family room is access to the backyard and the optional covered patio - perfect for relaxing outdoors and embracing the surrounding nature. Retreat to your private master suite, where you will discover singe or optional double sink, a super shower, and a walk-in closet. This well-designed plan is filled with energy-efficient features that keep you and your family's comfort at the forefront. Features like low E3 cube windows, third-party inspected insulation, and high-efficiency lighting all work together. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,513
• − Property taxes: −$3,351
• − Insurance: −$1,117
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,848
• − Management: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$6,498
• Taxable loss: −$4,070
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$977
• After-tax cash flow: $705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Oak plan is a move-in-ready home with good condition and minimal repairs needed. Upgrades in paint, flooring, and smart home features can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replacing carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and adds value to the home.
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features enhance convenience and attract tech-savvy buyers/renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract eco-conscious buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replacing carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and adds value to the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features enhance convenience and attract tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract eco-conscious buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-04-01 Listed $199,990 Zillow