12202 Lookout Loop Unit F20-09 · Truckee, CA 96161

$9,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,470 sqft · SingleFamily · 164 Days on market

$4/sqft · 51% below area $769/mo HOA · 16% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * 2026 Flex weeks include April 6-10 (spring break) and a prime week in the summer. (July 31-August 7.) * * Discover this beautifully renovated 3-bedroom cabin in Old Greenwood, designed for comfort and versatility, including a convenient Murphy bed in the office. This property features a 1/17 shared ownership opportunity, offering a guaranteed primary week 9 and additional floating time for more flexibility. As part of the Tahoe Mountain Club, enjoy exclusive access to two championship golf courses, a complimentary shuttle to Northstar Resort, a private members' lounge in the Village, and an on-mountain private restaurant. Indulge in luxurious, year-round amenities, where your guests can check in independently. With the Space Available program, you can make Flex, mid-week, and last-minute bookings for even more convenience.

Key facts

• Murphy bed
• Year round amenities
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• MURPHY BED
• SHARED OWNERSHIP OPPORTUNITY
• PRIVATE MEMBERS LOUNGE
• ON MOUNTAIN PRIVATE RESTAURANT
• YEAR ROUND AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $9k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($35k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $9k).
• Recommended offer: $8k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 398.9% vs local median 2.0% in Truckee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#697 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tahoe-Truckee Unified (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #136 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 375 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($132k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $62 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $270 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($8k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $7,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 53.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 398.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 1402.31%
• DSCR: 63.40
• GRM: 0.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $18,445
• List price: $9,000
• Delta: -51.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12283 Lookout Loop Unit F8-34	0.09mi	3/3.5	2,470 (0%)	2mo	$20,000	$8	94
12323 Lookout Loop Unit F10-24	0.13mi	3/3.5	2,470 (0%)	5mo	$13,500	$5	90
12328 Frontier Trl Unit F27-07	0.11mi	3/3.5	2,470 (0%)	7mo	$12,000	$5	89
12381 Lookout Loop Unit F13-24	0.19mi	3/3.5	2,470 (0%)	3mo	$12,750	$5	89
12423 Lookout Loop Unit F15-30	0.22mi	3/3.5	2,470 (0%)	1mo	$21,000	$9	89
12448 Trappers Trl Unit F32-05	0.24mi	3/3.5	2,470 (0%)	0mo	$1,000	—	89
12448 Trappers Trl Unit F32-28	0.24mi	3/3.5	2,470 (0%)	1mo	$27,500	$11	88
12463 Lookout Loop Unit F17-22	0.26mi	3/3.5	2,470 (0%)	0mo	$7,000	$3	88
12448 Trappers Trl Unit F32-24	0.24mi	3/3.5	2,470 (0%)	2mo	$12,500	$5	87
12498 Lookout Loop Unit F38-26	0.31mi	3/3.5	2,470 (0%)	4mo	$23,000	$9	82
12041 Highland Ave	0.57mi	3/2.5	2,266 (-8%)	0mo	$1,240,000	$547	56
12191 Highland Ave	0.52mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,304 (-7%)	5mo	$1,170,000	$508	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 82.16×
• Total profit: $204,533
• Equity at exit: $1,342

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 199.75×
• Total profit: $500,862
• Equity at exit: $778

Cash invested: $2,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96161

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,780 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$47
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$11 /mo · $135/yr
• Insurance: −$4
• HOA: −$769
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,004
• Net cashflow: $2,945

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,052

Max offer price $9,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,951	-5% $2,948	+0% $2,945	+5% $2,942	+10% $2,939
Rent	-10% $2,567	-5% $2,756	+0% $2,945	+5% $3,134	+10% $3,322
Rate	-1.0pp $2,949	-0.5pp $2,947	base $2,945	+0.5pp $2,943	+1.0pp $2,940

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,250
• Closing costs: $270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10175 Annies Loop Truckee, CA	3.0	3.5	2194	$7,500	$3.42	44d	1	1.22mi
10077 Jake S Way Truckee, CA	3.0	3.5	2552	$10,500	$4.11	44d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $769 · $9,228/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $9,000 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $9,000 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $9,000 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $9,000 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $9,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $9,000 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $9,000 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $9,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $9,000 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $9,000 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $9,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $9,000 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $9,000 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $9,000 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $9,000 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-02-15
    price $9,000 842-char remark

    Show marketing remark (842 chars)

    * * 2026 Flex weeks include April 6-10 (spring break) and a prime week in the summer. (July 31-August 7.) * * Discover this beautifully renovated 3-bedroom cabin in Old Greenwood, designed for comfort and versatility, including a convenient Murphy bed in the office. This property features a 1/17 shared ownership opportunity, offering a guaranteed primary week 9 and additional floating time for more flexibility. As part of the Tahoe Mountain Club, enjoy exclusive access to two championship golf courses, a complimentary shuttle to Northstar Resort, a private members' lounge in the Village, and an on-mountain private restaurant. Indulge in luxurious, year-round amenities, where your guests can check in independently. With the Space Available program, you can make Flex, mid-week, and last-minute bookings for even more convenience.

17. 2026-01-05
    listed $9,500 Active 842-char remark

    Show marketing remark (842 chars)

    * * 2026 Flex weeks include April 6-10 (spring break) and a prime week in the summer. (July 31-August 7.) * * Discover this beautifully renovated 3-bedroom cabin in Old Greenwood, designed for comfort and versatility, including a convenient Murphy bed in the office. This property features a 1/17 shared ownership opportunity, offering a guaranteed primary week 9 and additional floating time for more flexibility. As part of the Tahoe Mountain Club, enjoy exclusive access to two championship golf courses, a complimentary shuttle to Northstar Resort, a private members' lounge in the Village, and an on-mountain private restaurant. Indulge in luxurious, year-round amenities, where your guests can check in independently. With the Space Available program, you can make Flex, mid-week, and last-minute bookings for even more convenience.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$504
• − Property taxes: −$135
• − Insurance: −$45
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,589
• − Management: −$4,589
• − HOA: −$9,228
• − Depreciation: −$262
• Taxable income: $38,007
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9,122
• After-tax cash flow: $26,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tahoe-Truckee Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638770
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,136
• Composite: 44.38/100
• National rank: #2816
• State rank: #136 of 517 in CA

Livability — Truckee

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #697
• US rank: #21110

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Truckee, CA
• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• City population: 19,634
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 19,634
• Household income: $131,702
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 559.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.87%
• Current HPI: 336.9632
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-15 Price Changed $9,000 TSMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $9,500 TSMLS