7218 San Lucas St #189 · Carlsbad, CA 92011

$539,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 136 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $321/sqft · 40% above area Est $385k · 40% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your dream home in one of Carlsbad’s highly desirable 55+ gated communities! This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home blends comfort, style, and convenience with an active senior lifestyle. Step inside to an open, light-filled floor plan featuring vaulted ceilings, abundant natural light, and upgraded finishes throughout. The well-appointed kitchen includes modern appliances, generous cabinetry, and counter space perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite offers ample closet space and a private bathroom, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, hobbies, or an office. Hardwood or luxury vinyl flooring, ceiling fans, and stylish fixtures add to the home’s updated feel. Enjoy the outdoors on your private deck or patio, with views to the community’s greenbelts and landscaped areas at 7218 San Lucas Street Space #189 Carlsbad, CA 92011

Key facts

• Private deck
• Open floor plan
• Landscaped areas

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• PRIVATE DECK
• LANDSCAPED AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $539k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $539k).
• Recommended offer: $474k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.1% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,654/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($159k/yr) (locally 714% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $151k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($474k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $214k; list at $539k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $474,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.18%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $385,217
• List price: $539,000
• Delta: 39.92%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7207 Santa Barbara St #154	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,656 (-1%)	3mo	$513,300	$310	88
7024 San Bartolo Unit 19 A	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,544 (-8%)	2mo	$425,000	$275	77
7224 San Benito St	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-5%)	9mo	$400,000	$250	76
7002 San Bartolo St #30	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,781 (+6%)	2mo	$341,500	$192	75
7313 San Luis St #236	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,548 (-8%)	5mo	$450,000	$291	73
7304 Santa Barbara St #325	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-10%)	9mo	$481,000	$318	65
7203 San Luis St #166	0.14mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,536 (-9%)	9mo	$375,000	$244	65
7140 Santa Rosa St	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	6mo	$191,000	$133	60
7217 San Luis St #173	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	10mo	$280,000	$194	59
7106 Santa Cruz #56	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (-13%)	9mo	$390,000	$266	59
7018 San Carlos St #60	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	6mo	$392,000	$272	54
7318 San Luis St	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	9mo	$285,000	$198	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $131,418
• Equity at exit: $205,305

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $382,236
• Equity at exit: $290,141

Cash invested: $150,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92011

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,654 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,827
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$674 /mo · $8,085/yr
• Insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,397
• Net cashflow: $1,532

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,715

Max offer price $539,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,750
• Closing costs: $16,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7290 Ponto Dr Carlsbad, CA	4.0	3.5	1756	$8,212	$4.68	2d	2	0.17mi
7064 Whitewater St Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.5	2050	$8,500	$4.15	44d	1	0.24mi
6923 Whitecap Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1246	$5,250	$4.21	44d	1	0.58mi
820 Windcrest Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1404	$5,581	$3.98	18d	1	0.78mi
6910 Peachtree Rd Unit 1546353P Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1399	$6,129	$4.38	17d	1	0.80mi
6790 Embarcadero Ln Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	2.0–2.5	2104	$5,750	$2.73	5d	1	0.87mi
6811 Alderwood Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1292	$3,850	$2.98	44d	1	0.94mi
916 Caminito Estrada Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1188	$3,650	$3.07	44d	1	1.11mi
1967 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	929	$5,359	$5.77	2d	7	1.12mi
1812 Parliament Rd Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1467	$11,200	$7.63	2d	1	1.28mi
1859 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.5	1950	$7,000	$3.59	2d	1	1.28mi
925 Wind Drift Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.5	1110	$3,895	$3.51	44d	1	1.28mi
6555 Sea Gate Rd Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1114	$4,095	$3.67	2d	3	1.32mi
141 Stonesteps Way Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.5	1593	$6,500	$4.08	2d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $539,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $539,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $539,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $539,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $539,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $539,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $539,000 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $539,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $539,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $539,000 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $539,000 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $539,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $539,000 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $539,000 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-03-20
    price $539,000 922-char remark

    Show marketing remark (922 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home in one of Carlsbad’s highly desirable 55+ gated communities! This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home blends comfort, style, and convenience with an active senior lifestyle. Step inside to an open, light-filled floor plan featuring vaulted ceilings, abundant natural light, and upgraded finishes throughout. The well-appointed kitchen includes modern appliances, generous cabinetry, and counter space perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite offers ample closet space and a private bathroom, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, hobbies, or an office. Hardwood or luxury vinyl flooring, ceiling fans, and stylish fixtures add to the home’s updated feel. Enjoy the outdoors on your private deck or patio, with views to the community’s greenbelts and landscaped areas at 7218 San Lucas Street Space #189 Carlsbad, CA 92011

16. 2026-02-02
    listed $549,000 Active 922-char remark

    Show marketing remark (922 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home in one of Carlsbad’s highly desirable 55+ gated communities! This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home blends comfort, style, and convenience with an active senior lifestyle. Step inside to an open, light-filled floor plan featuring vaulted ceilings, abundant natural light, and upgraded finishes throughout. The well-appointed kitchen includes modern appliances, generous cabinetry, and counter space perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite offers ample closet space and a private bathroom, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, hobbies, or an office. Hardwood or luxury vinyl flooring, ceiling fans, and stylish fixtures add to the home’s updated feel. Enjoy the outdoors on your private deck or patio, with views to the community’s greenbelts and landscaped areas at 7218 San Lucas Street Space #189 Carlsbad, CA 92011

17. 2025-06-10
    soldstatus $214,000 Sold 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    Great Price! Great Location! Great Community!! * NO PROPERTY TAXES * This property is clean, has BIG ROOMS and a HUGE Primary Bath Layout, it just needs TLC and a good remodel. Price reflects the updating that needs to be done and to sell quickly. Newer appliances, Sunroom is 7x24! Quick walk to the community center for easy access to all activities and gym!

18. 2025-05-14
    status Pending 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    Great Price! Great Location! Great Community!! * NO PROPERTY TAXES * This property is clean, has BIG ROOMS and a HUGE Primary Bath Layout, it just needs TLC and a good remodel. Price reflects the updating that needs to be done and to sell quickly. Newer appliances, Sunroom is 7x24! Quick walk to the community center for easy access to all activities and gym!

19. 2025-05-07
    listed $245,000 Active 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    Great Price! Great Location! Great Community!! * NO PROPERTY TAXES * This property is clean, has BIG ROOMS and a HUGE Primary Bath Layout, it just needs TLC and a good remodel. Price reflects the updating that needs to be done and to sell quickly. Newer appliances, Sunroom is 7x24! Quick walk to the community center for easy access to all activities and gym!

20. 2020-09-24
    soldstatus $76,000 Sold
21. 2020-09-01
    status Pending
22. 2020-08-21
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $79,854
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,192
• − Property taxes: −$8,085
• − Insurance: −$2,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,388
• − Management: −$6,388
• − Depreciation: −$15,680
• Taxable income: $10,425
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,502
• After-tax cash flow: $15,884/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in a desirable Carlsbad community is in good condition with modern updates and a fresh paint job, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both painting — fresh paint can make a significant difference in curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both painting — fresh paint can make a significant difference in curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlsbad Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,200
• Composite: 65.11/100
• National rank: #1068
• State rank: #87 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,190
• Household income: $159,235
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 714.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 399.8502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+534.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $539,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $549,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-10 Sold (MLS) $214,000 SDMLS
• 2025-05-14 Pending — SDMLS
• 2025-05-07 Listed $245,000 SDMLS
• 2020-09-24 Sold (MLS) $76,000 SDMLS
• 2020-09-01 Pending — SDMLS
• 2020-08-21 Listed $85,000 SDMLS