2234 Kirby Dr · Aransas Pass, TX 78336

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Manufactured · 12 Days on market

Built 2007 2.42 ac lot Est $252k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to peaceful country living with this charming 2 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home situated on 2.42 beautiful acres. This property offers open space and natural privacy, giving you room to breathe and grow. Enjoy mornings and evenings relaxing on the wonderful covered back deck overlooking wide open land. The back portion of the acreage is more heavily wooded, offering endless possibilities. Leave it as-is for daily exploration and a natural buffer or clear and develop it to fit your vision. A storage shed is also included, providing extra space for tools, equipment or storage needs. Whether you're looking for a peaceful homestead, room for animals, or space to expand, this property offers flexibility and opportunity in a serene setting.

Key facts

• Natural privacy
• Covered back deck
• Storage shed

Tags

• COVERED BACK DECK
• NATURAL PRIVACY
• STORAGE SHED
• HEAVILY WOODED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $61 ($731/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.6% in Aransas Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#253 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Aransas Pass ISD (town): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #597 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: H T Faulk El (483 students, 74% FRL); A C Blunt Middle (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 387 students, 64% FRL); Aransas Pass H S (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 457 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 283 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Aransas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Aransas County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,076 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.49%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,416
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2357 Holden Rd	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-3%)	18mo	$245,000	$232	69
2380 Johnson Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+12%)	20mo	$243,500	$200	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-24,544
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-16,641
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78336

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,431 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $945/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,354

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $160	-5% $110	+0% $61	+5% $11	+10% $-38
Rent	-10% $-52	-5% $4	+0% $61	+5% $117	+10% $174
Rate	-1.0pp $149	-0.5pp $105	base $61	+0.5pp $16	+1.0pp $-31

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   status Pending 747-char remark

   Show marketing remark (747 chars)

   Escape to peaceful country living with this charming 2 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home situated on 2.42 beautiful acres. This property offers open space and natural privacy, giving you room to breathe and grow. Enjoy mornings and evenings relaxing on the wonderful covered back deck overlooking wide open land. The back portion of the acreage is more heavily wooded, offering endless possibilities. Leave it as-is for daily exploration and a natural buffer or clear and develop it to fit your vision. A storage shed is also included, providing extra space for tools, equipment or storage needs. Whether you're looking for a peaceful homestead, room for animals, or space to expand, this property offers flexibility and opportunity in a serene setting.

3. 2026-03-10
   historical 747-char remark

   Show marketing remark (747 chars)

   Escape to peaceful country living with this charming 2 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home situated on 2.42 beautiful acres. This property offers open space and natural privacy, giving you room to breathe and grow. Enjoy mornings and evenings relaxing on the wonderful covered back deck overlooking wide open land. The back portion of the acreage is more heavily wooded, offering endless possibilities. Leave it as-is for daily exploration and a natural buffer or clear and develop it to fit your vision. A storage shed is also included, providing extra space for tools, equipment or storage needs. Whether you're looking for a peaceful homestead, room for animals, or space to expand, this property offers flexibility and opportunity in a serene setting.

4. 2026-03-09
   historical
5. 2026-03-03
   status Active 747-char remark

   Show marketing remark (747 chars)

   Escape to peaceful country living with this charming 2 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home situated on 2.42 beautiful acres. This property offers open space and natural privacy, giving you room to breathe and grow. Enjoy mornings and evenings relaxing on the wonderful covered back deck overlooking wide open land. The back portion of the acreage is more heavily wooded, offering endless possibilities. Leave it as-is for daily exploration and a natural buffer or clear and develop it to fit your vision. A storage shed is also included, providing extra space for tools, equipment or storage needs. Whether you're looking for a peaceful homestead, room for animals, or space to expand, this property offers flexibility and opportunity in a serene setting.

6. 2026-03-02
   listed $175,000 Active
7. 2026-02-26
   historical

   Show marketing remark (747 chars)

   Escape to peaceful country living with this charming 2 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home situated on 2.42 beautiful acres. This property offers open space and natural privacy, giving you room to breathe and grow. Enjoy mornings and evenings relaxing on the wonderful covered back deck overlooking wide open land. The back portion of the acreage is more heavily wooded, offering endless possibilities. Leave it as-is for daily exploration and a natural buffer or clear and develop it to fit your vision. A storage shed is also included, providing extra space for tools, equipment or storage needs. Whether you're looking for a peaceful homestead, room for animals, or space to expand, this property offers flexibility and opportunity in a serene setting.

8. 2026-02-26
   status Pending 747-char remark

   Show marketing remark (747 chars)

   Escape to peaceful country living with this charming 2 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home situated on 2.42 beautiful acres. This property offers open space and natural privacy, giving you room to breathe and grow. Enjoy mornings and evenings relaxing on the wonderful covered back deck overlooking wide open land. The back portion of the acreage is more heavily wooded, offering endless possibilities. Leave it as-is for daily exploration and a natural buffer or clear and develop it to fit your vision. A storage shed is also included, providing extra space for tools, equipment or storage needs. Whether you're looking for a peaceful homestead, room for animals, or space to expand, this property offers flexibility and opportunity in a serene setting.

9. 2026-02-21
   listed $175,000 Active 747-char remark

   Show marketing remark (747 chars)

   Escape to peaceful country living with this charming 2 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home situated on 2.42 beautiful acres. This property offers open space and natural privacy, giving you room to breathe and grow. Enjoy mornings and evenings relaxing on the wonderful covered back deck overlooking wide open land. The back portion of the acreage is more heavily wooded, offering endless possibilities. Leave it as-is for daily exploration and a natural buffer or clear and develop it to fit your vision. A storage shed is also included, providing extra space for tools, equipment or storage needs. Whether you're looking for a peaceful homestead, room for animals, or space to expand, this property offers flexibility and opportunity in a serene setting.

10. 2026-02-21
    listed $175,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (747 chars)

    Escape to peaceful country living with this charming 2 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home situated on 2.42 beautiful acres. This property offers open space and natural privacy, giving you room to breathe and grow. Enjoy mornings and evenings relaxing on the wonderful covered back deck overlooking wide open land. The back portion of the acreage is more heavily wooded, offering endless possibilities. Leave it as-is for daily exploration and a natural buffer or clear and develop it to fit your vision. A storage shed is also included, providing extra space for tools, equipment or storage needs. Whether you're looking for a peaceful homestead, room for animals, or space to expand, this property offers flexibility and opportunity in a serene setting.

11. 2021-03-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $945 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,257/yr (+$188/mo · 238.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$945
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,374
• − Management: −$1,374
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,292
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$550
• After-tax cash flow: $1,281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aransas Pass ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808580
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,869
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7191
• State rank: #597 of 826 in TX

Livability — Aransas Pass

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #5980

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,146

Population outlook (Aransas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,563 people
• By 2030: 31,713 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 35,989 · +21.7%
• By 2050: 40,281 · +36.3%
• By 2075: 51,252 · +73.4%
• By 2100: 57,757 · +95.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 21% Asian 2% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Aransas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -37.7pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+51.4 2016: R+50.4 2012: R+42.8 2008: R+37.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.56%
• Current HPI: 187.8443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — CBMLS
• 2026-03-16 Pending — RAAR
• 2026-03-10 Delisted — RAAR
• 2026-03-09 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — RAAR
• 2026-03-02 Listed $175,000 CBMLS
• 2026-02-26 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2026-02-26 Pending — RAAR
• 2026-02-21 Listed $175,000 RAAR
• 2026-02-21 Listed $175,000 CBMLS
• 2021-03-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $945 · +16.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.