17412 SE 81st Newberry Ct · The Villages, FL 32162

$170,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 955 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2002 3,485 sqft lot $178/sqft · 41% below area Est $289k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you are looking for an active retirement lifestyle, you can't beat this gorgeous Villages home. This 1 bd/1ba cozy home features an open floor plan with an abundance of light. The Jack and Jill bath allows this to function as a guest bath and an ensuite bath. It is located just mintues away from The Nancy Lopez Country Club featuring executive, world renowned golf courses, pools, and a host of clubhouse amenities to guarantee the retirement lifestyle you are looking for. This one could use some TLC but it is priced right.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Jack and jill bath
• Clubhouse amenities

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• JACK AND JILL BATH
• CLUBHOUSE AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $336 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.46%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,614
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -41.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17415 SE 82nd Pecan Ter	0.17mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,071 (+12%)	10mo	$229,900	$215	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,408
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $31,032
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,870 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,149/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,445

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $170,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $186,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $186,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $186,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $186,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $186,000 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-04-16
    listed $186,000 Active 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    If you are looking for an active retirement lifestyle, you can't beat this gorgeous Villages home. This 1 bd/1ba cozy home features an open floor plan with an abundance of light. The Jack and Jill bath allows this to function as a guest bath and an ensuite bath. It is located just mintues away from The Nancy Lopez Country Club featuring executive, world renowned golf courses, pools, and a host of clubhouse amenities to guarantee the retirement lifestyle you are looking for. This one could use some TLC but it is priced right.

17. 2026-01-22
    soldstatus $159,421

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,149 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,149 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,149
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,795
• − Management: −$1,795
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $1,381
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$331
• After-tax cash flow: $3,698/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+16.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $186,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $159,421 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,149 · +13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.