None · Surfside, FL 33154

$450,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 763 sqft · Condo public records · 66 Days on market

Built 2003 $637/mo HOA · 15% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Please send all offers to listing agent. UNIT IS CURRENTLY RENTED FOR $2540.

Key facts

• $637 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2003

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets not allowed
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $637

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1-car garage
• Home design: 4-story building; Main entry on level 3; Entry located on level 3; Effective year built
• Exterior features: Property is attached

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Other interior features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-640 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $337k (25.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $434k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $337k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#258 in FL, #4,141 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ruth K. Broad Bay Harbor K-8 Center (math 76% / reading 76%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,249 students, 29% FRL); Miami Beach Nautilus Middle School (math 46% / reading 58%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 918 students, 44% FRL); Miami Beach Senior High School (math 21% / reading 48%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 2,175 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 64% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 523 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,342/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 774% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $450k implies a 260% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $336,854 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.04%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.12% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $80,386
• Equity at exit: $286,424

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $246,004
• Equity at exit: $522,495

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33154

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 523
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,342 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$460 /mo · $5,518/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$637
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$912
• Net cashflow: $-640

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,153

Max offer price $336,854

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-386	-5% $-513	+0% $-640	+5% $-768	+10% $-895
Rent	-10% $-984	-5% $-812	+0% $-640	+5% $-469	+10% $-297
Rate	-1.0pp $-414	-0.5pp $-526	base $-640	+0.5pp $-757	+1.0pp $-876

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $637 · $7,644/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $450,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $450,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $450,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    listed $450,000 Active
16. 2026-04-15
    historical
17. 2026-03-16
    listed $400,000 Active
18. 2025-12-21
    historical $2,900
19. 2025-12-10
    listed $2,900
20. 2022-10-31
    historical
21. 2022-09-06
    price $379,000
22. 2022-08-09
    price $399,000
23. 2022-07-08
    listed $420,000 Active
24. 2010-11-30
    soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,518 · $460/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,518 · $460/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,104
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$5,518
• − Insurance: −$7,369
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,168
• − Management: −$4,168
• − HOA: −$7,644
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$15,060
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,615
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Surfside

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #4141

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surfside, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,572
• Household income: $89,563
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 774.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 25% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 12% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 7% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 46% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 41% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.12%
• Current HPI: 454.1747
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.30%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+260.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $450,000 MARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $400,000 MARMLS
• 2025-12-21 Rental Removed $2,900 MARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listed for Rent $2,900 MARMLS
• 2022-10-31 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2022-09-06 Price Changed $379,000 MARMLS
• 2022-08-09 Price Changed $399,000 MARMLS
• 2022-07-08 Listed $420,000 MARMLS
• 2010-11-30 Sold (MLS) $125,000 MARMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,518 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.