9 Lonergan Ln · Ticonderoga, NY 12883

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 552 sqft · Manufactured public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1979

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice village lot with .19 of an acre and town water and sewer. Dead end st., some mt. views. Tow bedroom single wide ahs been redone to large living/kitchen space and onebedroom. Appliances included. Being offered below assessed value. 24 hr. notice to show.

Key facts

• Off street parking
• Concrete slab
• Town sewer

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• OFF STREET PARKING
• NEWER METAL ROOF
• CONCRETE SLAB
• TOWN WATER
• TOWN SEWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $384 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($850 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 2.2% in Ticonderoga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#182 in NY, #2,828 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Ticonderoga Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #459 of 590 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $40k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $39,400 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.10%
• DSCR: 2.83
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.13×
• Total profit: $46,238
• Equity at exit: $36,035

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.7%
• Equity multiple: 11.45×
• Total profit: $116,988
• Equity at exit: $77,711

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12883

• Home prices YoY: 14.5%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $737/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $364

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $406	-5% $395	+0% $384	+5% $372	+10% $361
Rent	-10% $316	-5% $350	+0% $384	+5% $417	+10% $451
Rate	-1.0pp $404	-0.5pp $394	base $384	+0.5pp $373	+1.0pp $363

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7 Callahan Dr Unit 2 Ticonderoga, NY	1.0	1.0	500	$850	$1.70	44d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $40,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $40,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    listed $40,000 Active
17. 2018-11-26
    soldstatus $20,000
18. 2011-12-05
    soldstatus $18,000 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Nice village lot with .19 of an acre and town water and sewer. Dead end st., some mt. views. Tow bedroom single wide ahs been redone to large living/kitchen space and onebedroom. Appliances included. Being offered below assessed value. 24 hr. notice to show.

19. 2011-08-28
    listed $25,000 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Nice village lot with .19 of an acre and town water and sewer. Dead end st., some mt. views. Tow bedroom single wide ahs been redone to large living/kitchen space and onebedroom. Appliances included. Being offered below assessed value. 24 hr. notice to show.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $737 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $737 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$737
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$816
• − Management: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $4,226
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,014
• After-tax cash flow: $3,589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ticonderoga Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628680
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,111
• Composite: 38.65/100
• National rank: #4150
• State rank: #459 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ticonderoga

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #2828

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ticonderoga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,781

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.24%
• Current HPI: 301.3984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+60.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $40,000 FSBO.com
• 2018-11-26 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2011-12-05 Sold (MLS) $18,000 Global MLS
• 2011-08-28 Listed $25,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $737 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.