1028 Lincoln St St · Malvern, AR 72104

$27,900

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 432 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 177 Days on market

Built 1960 8,276 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cozy single-family home located within the Malvern city limits. This detached residence sits on an approximately 0.31-acre lot and offers convenient access to local schools, shopping, and downtown Malvern. Ideal for investors or buyers seeking an affordable in-town property with yard space. Property is not located in a subdivision and has no HOA fees.

Key facts

• Downtown malvern
• 0.31-acre lot
• No hoa fees

Tags

• SINGLE-FAMILY HOME
• 0.31-ACRE LOT
• LOCAL SCHOOLS
• SHOPPING
• DOWNTOWN MALVERN
• NO HOA FEES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.19 acre (about 8,276 sq. ft.)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water
• Home design: Single-family property; Facing direction not specified; Entry level not specified
• Construction: Wood exterior; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation; Built area approximately 1,000
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Property located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator stays
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling (electric); Central heating (gas)
• Interior features: Laminate flooring; Microwave; Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator stays

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $469 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($809 rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.5% vs local median 5.3% in Malvern — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#215 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Malvern School District (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #207 of 238 in AR (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 171 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Hot Spring County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $193 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $837 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hot Spring County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $28k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,552 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.05%
• DSCR: 4.21
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $25,350
• Equity at exit: $4,160

10-year hold

• IRR: 75.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.75×
• Total profit: $60,532
• Equity at exit: $2,412

Cash invested: $7,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72104

• Home prices YoY: -7.3%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $809 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$146
• Tax from tax record: −$12 /mo · $142/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$170
• Net cashflow: $469

Break-even live

Break-even rent $215

Max offer price $27,900

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,975
• Closing costs: $837
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $27,900 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $27,900 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $27,900 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $27,900 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $27,900 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $27,900 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $27,900 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $27,900 Active 168 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $27,900 Active 167 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $27,900 Active 166 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $27,900 Active 165 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $27,900 Active 160 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $27,900 Active 159 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $27,900 Active 158 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $27,900 Active 157 DOM
16. 2026-01-27
    price $27,900
17. 2026-01-14
    price $29,900
18. 2026-01-06
    price $39,900
19. 2026-01-03
    price $49,900
20. 2025-12-30
    price $54,900
21. 2025-12-24
    listed $59,900 New Listing
22. 1996-03-01
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $142 · $12/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $179 · $15/mo
• Expected delta: +$37/yr (+$3/mo · 26.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,703
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,563
• − Property taxes: −$142
• − Insurance: −$140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$776
• − Management: −$776
• − Depreciation: −$812
• Taxable income: $5,495
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,319
• After-tax cash flow: $4,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Malvern School District
• NCES district ID: 0509240
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $35,370
• Composite: 17.76/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #207 of 238 in AR

Livability — Malvern

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #215
• US rank: #16632

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Malvern, AR
• Population (ZIP): 23,222

Population outlook (Hot Spring County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,464 people
• By 2030: 34,659 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 34,486 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 33,419 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 28,702 · -16.7%
• By 2100: 21,415 · -37.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 16% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hot Spring

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 22.9% · R 75.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+48.7 2016: R+42.5 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.79%
• Current HPI: 211.6419
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+86.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $27,900 CARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $29,900 CARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $39,900 CARMLS
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $49,900 CARMLS
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $54,900 CARMLS
• 2025-12-24 Listed $59,900 CARMLS
• 1996-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $142 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.