11315 Raincove Dr · Houston, TX 77016

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,191 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1960 6,490 sqft lot $118/sqft · 10% below area Est $181k · 23% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great investment property fits 70-75% rule depending on finishes. Home can be turned into 4 bedroom 2 baths, 4 bedroom one bath or left as is. Great rental, first home and for buyers intreated in increasing value via updates. There is no survey, buyer would have to purchase if needed. Room size and sqft are approximate, buyer or buyers agent to verify. For additional information, please contact co-list or buyers agent for additional information.

Key facts

• 6,490 sq ft lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 2 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $361 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 372 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $140k implies a 536% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.06%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,166
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -25.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5930 Annunciation St	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,235 (+4%)	0mo	$186,999	$151	86
6130 Hartwick Rd	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,278 (+7%)	5mo	$115,000	$90	78
6330 Cobalt St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,242 (+4%)	1mo	$199,995	$161	75
6319 Hopper Rd	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,188 (-0%)	1mo	$110,000	$93	74
6110 Guadalupe St	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,336 (+12%)	1mo	$120,000	$90	73
6319 Annunciation St	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,214 (+2%)	6mo	$205,000	$169	71
11151 Spottswood Dr	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,283 (+8%)	1mo	$99,900	$78	60
6406 Guadalupe St	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,036 (-13%)	6mo	$165,000	$159	58
6622 Cobalt St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,048 (-12%)	1mo	$125,000	$119	54
6611 Mohawk St	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,255 (+5%)	6mo	$142,500	$114	54
6315 Mohawk St	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,250 (+5%)	7mo	$240,000	$192	50
11059 Vailview Dr	0.72mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,025 (-14%)	4mo	$159,000	$155	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $82,284
• Equity at exit: $112,598

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.46×
• Total profit: $214,163
• Equity at exit: $229,733

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,714 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,256

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11435 Raincove Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,345	$1.34	4d	1	0.19mi
11235 Lemond Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	22d	1	0.41mi
11610 Danford Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	44d	1	0.43mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	5d	1	0.85mi
6822 Leedale St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$1,500	$1.53	44d	1	0.90mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	19d	1	1.04mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	14d	1	1.34mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	8d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 449-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on marketlisting id $140,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-01-07
   status Active
5. 2025-12-15
   status Pending
6. 2025-11-26
   listed $135,000 Active
7. 1998-09-29
   soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,400 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$162/yr (+$13/mo · 6.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,565
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,645
• − Management: −$1,645
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $2,259
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$542
• After-tax cash flow: $3,794/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+513.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-26 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 1998-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,400 · -5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.