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3658 Lake Bayshore Dr #320
D+ Composite 46.48
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • 1% rule +8.6/10.0
  • Cash flow +8.0/30.0
  • Livability +3.9/5.0
  • Condition / age +3.8/5.0
  • Schools +3.3/10.0
  • DSCR +2.1/10.0
  • Rent growth +1.9/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$119,000

3658 Lake Bayshore Dr #320 · South Bradenton, FL 34205
2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Townhouse · 14 Days on market
Built 1980 Good condition $104/sqft · 28% below area Est $164k · 28% under $575/mo HOA · 36% of rent
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Turn Key, and move right in. AMAZING PRICE ADJUSTMENT, First to see will buy. Welcome home! This freshly painted spacious condo is perfectfor full-time living or for your Florida condo getaway from the snow home! This unit is located on the third floor with easy elevator access and anassigned parking space. The kitchen has stainless steel appliances and a new bright lighting fixture. The split floor plan allows for added privacy when guests are visiting. This unit has a spacious screened-in lanai overlooking beautiful garden views.

Key facts

  • Easy elevator access
  • $575 HOA
  • Community pool

Tags

EASY ELEVATOR ACCESSSPACIOUS SCREENED-IN LANAIBEAUTIFUL GARDEN VIEWSCOMMUNITY OFFERS A POOLCLOSE PROXIMITY TO SHOPPINGCLOSE PROXIMITY TO RESTAURANTS

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $119k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (14.7% below list).
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
  • Recommended offer: $102k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
  • Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.6% in South Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in FL, #3,092 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
  • Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Robert H. Prine Elementary School (math 46% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 744 students, 75% FRL); W. D. Sugg Middle School (math 34% / reading 28%, grade F, #462 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 1,010 students, 72% FRL); Southeast High School (math 25% / reading 34%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,716 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 51% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
  • Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 400 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
  • 9 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 8715% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
Recommended offer $101,550 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
  5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.36% ✓
Cap rate
5.08%
Cash-on-cash
-4.34%
DSCR
0.81
GRM
6.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$164,322
List price
$119,000
Delta
-27.58%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
3500 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit K 101 0.00mi 2/2.0 1,144 (0%) 0mo $90,000 $79 100
3502 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit K102 0.00mi 2/2.0 1,144 (0%) 1mo $73,000 $64 99
3176 Lake Bayshore Dr #319 0.00mi 2/2.0 1,144 (0%) 4mo $180,000 $157 97
3756 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit K-509 0.00mi 2/2.0 1,144 (0%) 4mo $109,000 $95 96
3118 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit O216 0.00mi 2/2.0 1,144 (0%) 6mo $200,000 $175 95
3446 Lake Bayshore Dr #416 0.33mi 2/2.0 1,144 (0%) 0mo $180,000 $157 84
4127 Heron Way Unit E-111 0.39mi 2/2.0 1,144 (0%) 0mo $80,000 $70 81
3424 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 405 BUILDING P 0.33mi 2/2.0 1,144 (0%) 4mo $132,500 $116 81
4111 Heron Way Unit E-103 0.39mi 2/2.0 1,144 (0%) 1mo $70,200 $61 81
4157 Heron Way #302 0.39mi 2/2.0 1,144 (0%) 5mo $70,000 $61 78
3635 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit J-410 0.39mi 2/2.0 1,144 (0%) 5mo $128,000 $112 78
4155 Heron Way Unit E-301 0.39mi 2/2.0 1,144 (0%) 6mo $55,000 $48 77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-29.5%
Equity multiple
0.06×
Total profit
$-31,322
Equity at exit
$17,743
10-year hold
IRR
-72.7%
Equity multiple
-0.62×
Total profit
$-53,935
Equity at exit
$10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Methodology + full state rankings →
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
63 active · 14 under contract
Months of supply
16.4 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$129,000 ($126/sqft)
Median days on market
148 d
This list price
44% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+14.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34205

Rents YoY
-2.4%
Active inventory
400
Price-to-rent
6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,616 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
−$624
Tax est. 1.5%
−$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
Insurance
−$50
HOA
−$575
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
−$339
Net cashflow
$-121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,769
Max offer price $101,550
Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-38 -5% $-79 +0% $-121 +5% $-162 +10% $-203
Rent -10% $-248 -5% $-184 +0% $-121 +5% $-57 +10% $7
Rate -1.0pp $-61 -0.5pp $-90 base $-121 +0.5pp $-151 +1.0pp $-183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$29,750
Closing costs
$3,570
Reserves months
—
Total cash needed
—

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 40 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
3064 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 115 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1144 $1,250 $1.09 119d 1 0.02mi
3124 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 219 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1144 $2,300 $2.01 119d 1 0.02mi
3122 Lake Bayshore Dr Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1144 $1,450 $1.27 9d 1 0.02mi
4540 19th Street Cir W Unit 4405-D Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 804 $1,495 $1.86 9d 1 0.09mi
4444 17th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 850 $2,200 $2.59 119d 1 0.19mi
4204 Heron Way Unit B304 Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 912 $1,400 $1.54 98d 1 0.23mi
4242 Heron Way Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 1196 $1,500 $1.25 9d 1 0.27mi
4515 26th St W Bradenton, FL 1.0–2.0 1.0–2.0 806 $1,510 $1.87 0d 31 0.30mi
2105 46th Avenue Dr W Unit 2405 Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 884 $2,100 $2.38 73d 1 0.34mi
3525 19th St W Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 870 $1,600 $1.84 9d 1 0.34mi
2305 46th Ave W Bradenton, FL 1.0–2.0 1.0–2.0 1017 $1,942 $1.91 0d 10 0.34mi
4607 21st St W Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1133 $2,500 $2.21 119d 1 0.36mi
3693 Lake Bayshore Dr Bldg H Bradenton, FL 1.0 1.0 760 $1,295 $1.70 65d 1 0.37mi
3635 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit J410 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1144 $1,700 $1.49 119d 1 0.40mi
4111 Heron Way Unit E103 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1144 $1,450 $1.27 9d 1 0.40mi
4121 Heron Way #108 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1144 $1,340 $1.17 87d 1 0.40mi
3963 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit F-414 Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 1040 $1,200 $1.15 110d 1 0.40mi
4121 Heron Way #108 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1144 $1,340 $1.17 119d 1 0.40mi
4129 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit C501 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1144 $1,500 $1.31 9d 1 0.40mi
4143 Heron Way Unit 207 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1144 $1,500 $1.31 0d 1 0.40mi
3737 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 213 Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 912 $1,150 $1.26 116d 1 0.40mi
4127 Heron Way Unit E-111 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1144 $1,450 $1.27 9d 1 0.40mi
4109 Lake Bayshore Dr Bradenton, FL 1.0 1.0 768 $1,250 $1.63 119d 1 0.40mi
1812 47th Avenue Dr W Unit 1812 Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1200 $1,950 $1.62 76d 1 0.43mi
3528 14th St W Bradenton, FL 1.0 1.0 720 $1,300 $1.81 9d 1 0.45mi
3506 14th St W Bradenton, FL 3.0 1.0–2.0 874 $1,725 $1.97 5d 4 0.55mi
1308 36th Ave W Bradenton, FL 1.0 1.0 715 $1,199 $1.68 119d 1 0.56mi
2004 49th Ave W Unit 2002 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1021 $1,950 $1.91 119d 1 0.59mi
4906 21st St W Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 918 $1,700 $1.85 111d 1 0.61mi
4705 27th St W Unit A Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 750 $1,325 $1.77 87d 1 0.62mi
4705 27th St W Unit A Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 750 $1,325 $1.77 98d 1 0.62mi
4916 18th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1170 $1,650 $1.41 119d 1 0.65mi
4917 21st St W Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 916 $1,500 $1.64 9d 1 0.66mi
4907 24th St W Unit A Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 900 $1,480 $1.64 0d 1 0.67mi
4907 24th St W Unit A Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 900 $1,480 $1.64 9d 1 0.67mi
4507 9th St W Bradenton, FL 1.0–2.0 1.0–2.0 864 $1,299 $1.50 0d 6 0.68mi
5001 22nd St W Unit B Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 729 $1,700 $2.33 111d 1 0.68mi
5005 19th St W Unit A Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 756 $1,500 $1.98 7d 1 0.69mi
5005 19th St W Unit A Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 889 $1,500 $1.69 9d 1 0.69mi
3316 26th St W Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1472 $1,999 $1.36 9d 1 0.69mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
FurnishedClubhouse and street lights in communityPets not allowed
Financial info
Total monthly fees: $575Total annual fees: $6,900Lease restrictions apply
HOA & community
Monthly association fee of $575Association requires approvalAssociation amenities include cable TV, laundry, and poolAssociation fee covers cable TV, common area taxes, pool, structure maintenance, grounds maintenance, management, and trashAssociation name: Cristina StewartHas HOA

Exterior

Parking
Parking details not provided
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerBroadband/High-Speed Internet availableCable connectedElectricity connectedPhone availableSewer connectedWater connected
Home design
Residential condominiumAttached propertyOne-level unit (floor 1)Faces southSenior community
Construction
Block and stucco constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt as part of Building K
Exterior features
Other exterior featuresMature landscapingAsphalt/paved road access

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorElectric water heater
Bedrooms
2 bedrooms
Flooring
CarpetHardwoodTile
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
Interior features
Ceiling fansEat-in kitchenLiving room/dining room comboOpen floorplanSplit bedroom layoutThermostatWalk-in closet(s)Window treatmentsBuilding has elevator
Laundry & utility
Common area laundryOther laundry features

HOA detail $575/mo · $6,900/yr

Likely covers
parking

Listing history 11 events

  1. 2026-06-13
    days on market $119,000 Active 14 DOM
  2. 2026-06-13
    days on market $119,000 Active 13 DOM
  3. 2026-06-10
    days on market $119,000 Active 11 DOM
  4. 2026-06-09
    days on market $119,000 Active 10 DOM
  5. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,000 Active 9 DOM
  6. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 8 DOM
  7. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 4 DOM
  8. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 3 DOM
  9. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 2 DOM
  10. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
  11. 2026-05-31
    listed $119,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$19,394
− Mortgage interest
−$6,666
− Property taxes
−$1,785
− Insurance
−$595
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,552
− Management
−$1,552
− HOA
−$6,900
− Depreciation
−$3,462
Taxable loss
−$3,116
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$748
After-tax cash flow
$-699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,720–$17,160 screening

This turn-key, well-maintained condo is ready for immediate occupancy and offers a great value with minimal needed improvements.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Paint the exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
  • Both Replace the carpet in the bedrooms — Improves comfort and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Robert H. Prine Elementary School F FL #1,560/2,144 Nat'l #20,819/41,679 Middle W. D. Sugg Middle School F FL #462/571 Nat'l #8,646/14,009 High Southeast High School F FL #447/667 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Manatee
NCES district ID
1201230
Math proficiency
54% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency
50% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income
$49,607
Composite
44.43/100
National rank
#2806
State rank
#26 of 73 in FL
B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — South Bradenton

Score
77/100
State rank
#195
US rank
#3092

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
South Bradenton, FL
County
Manatee County · 447,342 people
Metro
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
Population (ZIP)
31,946
Household income
$52,525
Rent vs Own
40.3% rent · 59.7% own
Severe rent burden
18% of renters

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
447,342 people
By 2030
488,911 · +9.3%
By 2040
567,934 · +27.0%
By 2050
637,995 · +42.6%
By 2075
781,970 · +74.8%
By 2100
848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (65%)
Race & ethnicity
White 65% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
Common ancestry
Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
Foreign-born
15% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home
78% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

2024 margin
Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
2008→2024 swing
-16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

Civics
—

Price history

-99.2% since first listed
21 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-15 Rental Removed $1,350 STELLARMLS
  • 2026-05-30 Listed for Rent $1,350 STELLARMLS
  • 2026-05-30 Listed $119,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-06-26 Rental Removed $1,300 STELLARMLS
  • 2025-06-04 Listed for Rent $1,300 STELLARMLS
  • 2025-05-20 Rental Removed $1,300 STELLARMLS
  • 2025-05-05 Price Changed $1,300 STELLARMLS
  • 2025-04-09 Price Changed $1,499 STELLARMLS
  • 2025-04-08 Price Changed $157,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-02-23 Listed for Rent $1,575 STELLARMLS
  • 2025-02-22 Listed $168,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2024-05-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2024-03-04 Rental Removed $1,500 STELLARMLS
  • 2024-02-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2024-01-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2023-11-26 Listed for Rent $1,500 STELLARMLS
  • 2023-09-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2023-09-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2023-08-12 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2023-06-19 Listed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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