18 Houston Rd · Tulia, TX 79088

$74,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 770 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1970 8,276 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cheaper than renting! Move-in ready 2 bedroom home with beautiful hardwood floors, central heat & AC and a large bathroom. Affordable for homeowners or investors. Features fresh paint, a functional layout, dedicated laundry room and the primary bedroom includes 2 closets! Contact your favorite local realtor to schedule a showing!

Key facts

• 2 closets
• Functional layout
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• WHEELCHAIR ACCESSIBLE BATHROOM
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• 2 CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $74k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-273/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $70k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $60k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $60k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,297 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tulia ISD (town): math 22% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #768 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($515 loan paydown + $936 appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Swisher County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,900 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.31%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $878
• Equity at exit: $26,431

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $14,043
• Equity at exit: $35,908

Cash invested: $20,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79088

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $599 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$391
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $891/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$126
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $628

Max offer price $70,477

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,625
• Closing costs: $2,235
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
711 S Austin Ave Tulia, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$599	$0.86	21d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,500 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,500 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,500 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,500 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,500 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,500 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $74,500 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,500 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,500 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $74,500 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,500 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,500 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,500 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,500 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,500 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-04-04
    listed $74,500 Active 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    Cheaper than renting! Move-in ready 2 bedroom home with beautiful hardwood floors, central heat & AC and a large bathroom. Affordable for homeowners or investors. Features fresh paint, a functional layout, dedicated laundry room and the primary bedroom includes 2 closets! Contact your favorite local realtor to schedule a showing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $891 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,363 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$472/yr (+$39/mo · 53.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $7,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,173
• − Property taxes: −$891
• − Insurance: −$372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$575
• − Management: −$575
• − Depreciation: −$2,167
• Taxable loss: −$1,566
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$376
• After-tax cash flow: $103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tulia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843320
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $36,346
• Composite: 17.86/100
• National rank: #9004
• State rank: #768 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tulia

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1297
• US rank: #22536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tulia, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,315

Population outlook (Swisher County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,108 people
• By 2030: 6,928 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 6,468 · -9.0%
• By 2050: 6,017 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 4,875 · -31.4%
• By 2100: 3,447 · -51.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 39% Two or more races 16% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Swisher

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 17.8% · R 81.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.1pp toward R · 2008: -34.3pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.26%
• Current HPI: 158.3302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed $74,500 LARMLS

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $891 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.