2845 E Hatch Rd #68 · Ceres, CA 95351

$100,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 213 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1970 Average condition $69/sqft · 22% below area Est $129k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.3

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully cared-for modular home in the desirable Voyage Cove community, where pride of ownership and charm shine through every detail. This home offers a bright, open floor plan designed for both comfort and everyday living. Large windows fill the living area with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The spacious kitchen features a convenient breakfast bar, perfect for casual meals or entertaining friends, along with plenty of cabinet space for all your storage needs. Throughout the home, tasteful finishes and custom touches add character and style.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Clubhouse
• Greenbelt views

Tags

• VOYAGE COVE COMMUNITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• GREENBELT VIEWS
• PLAYGROUND ACCESS
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $625 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 3.5% in Ceres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#923 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lucas Elementary (653 students, 76% FRL); Cesar Chavez Junior High (662 students, 83% FRL); Ceres High (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 1,777 students, 83% FRL).
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.77%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $129,000
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -22.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2845 E Hatch Rd #78	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$67,500	$47	94
2845 E Hatch Rd #84	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$128,000	$89	88
2845 E Hatch Rd #5	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	2mo	$90,000	$59	85
2841 Fowler #116	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$129,000	$90	78
2841 Fowler #37	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	13mo	$105,000	$73	61
2841 Fowler Rd #111	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,534 (+6%)	4mo	$185,000	$121	59
2841 Fowler Rd #89	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	4mo	$140,000	$104	57
2841 Fowler Rd #42	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,287 (-11%)	5mo	$145,000	$113	45
2841 Fowler Rd #33	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-13%)	6mo	$145,000	$116	40
2841 Fowler #141	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+12%)	17mo	$185,000	$114	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $23,607
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $71,889
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $130,000 ($114/sqft)
• Median days on market: 79 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -21.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 95351

• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,666 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $625

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $694	-5% $659	+0% $625	+5% $590	+10% $556
Rent	-10% $493	-5% $559	+0% $625	+5% $690	+10% $756
Rate	-1.0pp $675	-0.5pp $650	base $625	+0.5pp $599	+1.0pp $572

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2808 Canyon Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,495	$1.83	162d	1	0.14mi
2628 River Valley Cir Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1245	$2,400	$1.93	24d	1	0.21mi
2628 River Valley Cir Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1245	$2,400	$1.93	10d	1	0.21mi
2685 Parkway Ceres, CA	2.0	2.0	1150	$795	$0.69	1d	1	0.41mi
2685 Parkway Ceres, CA	2.0	2.0	1150	$795	$0.69	184d	1	0.41mi
2679 Parkway Unit 1 Ceres, CA	2.0	2.0	1275	$2,050	$1.61	10d	1	0.43mi
1120 Landreth Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1559	$2,800	$1.80	51d	1	0.51mi
3208 Lotus Ct Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1123	$2,200	$1.96	51d	1	0.68mi
2232 Ridgeway Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,295	$1.60	154d	1	0.74mi
2029 Venus Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,500	$1.87	164d	1	0.85mi
2121 Moffett Rd Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	184d	1	0.96mi
2208 Dupre Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1199	$1,995	$1.66	2d	1	1.11mi
2250 5th St Unit 9 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,425	$1.58	10d	1	1.14mi
2630 Magnolia St Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	1368	$1,549	$1.13	22d	1	1.26mi
1405 Villa Ramon Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,800	$1.21	7d	1	1.27mi
1757 Richland Ave Ceres, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,750	$1.79	135d	1	1.47mi
1757 Richland Ave Ceres, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,750	$1.79	11d	2	1.47mi
1301 Richland Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,768	$1.94	0d	9	1.49mi
1730 Norwood Heights Ln Ceres, CA	3.0	2.5	1377	$2,350	$1.71	0d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 213 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 212 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $100,000 Active 211 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $100,000 Active 210 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $100,000 Active 209 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $100,000 Active 207 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $100,000 Active 206 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 205 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $100,000 Active 204 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $100,000 Active 203 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $100,000 Active 202 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $100,000 Active 201 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $100,000 Active 200 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $100,000 Active 199 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $100,000 Active 198 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $100,000 Active 197 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $100,000 Active 196 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $100,000 Active 195 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $100,000 Active 194 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $100,000 Active 193 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $100,000 Active 192 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $100,000 Active 191 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $100,000 Active 190 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $100,000 Active 189 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $100,000 Active 188 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $100,000 Active 187 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $100,000 Active 186 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $100,000 Active 185 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $100,000 Active 184 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $100,000 Active 183 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 182 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 181 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $100,000 Active 180 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 179 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 178 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 177 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 176 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 175 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 174 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $100,000 Active 173 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $100,000 Active 172 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $100,000 Active 171 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $100,000 Active 170 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $100,000 Active 169 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    status $100,000 Active 168 DOM
46. 2026-09-03
    statusdays on market $100,000 Pending 168 DOM
47. 2026-08-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 166 DOM
48. 2026-08-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 165 DOM
49. 2026-08-29
    days on market $100,000 Active 164 DOM
50. 2026-08-28
    days on market $100,000 Active 163 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,986
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,599
• − Management: −$1,599
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $6,278
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,507
• After-tax cash flow: $5,989/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,200–$21,600 screening

This home is in average condition with cosmetic repairs needed. It offers a bright, open floor plan and is located in a desirable community. Updates to paint, cabinets, and flooring would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Bathtub and fixtures — Signs of wear
• Minor Exterior siding — Aged appearance
• Minor Hardwood flooring — Worn appearance
• Minor Paint — Faded appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and appearance ↑
• Both Replace worn hardwood flooring — New flooring enhances comfort and value ↑
• Both Replace worn exterior siding — Fresh siding improves curb appeal and durability ↑
• Both Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and durability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Virginia Parks Elementary Middle Mae Hensley Junior High High Ceres High F CA #618/1,170 Nat'l #9,639/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ceres Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,178
• Composite: 27.96/100
• National rank: #6858
• State rank: #303 of 517 in CA

D Composite livability gradescore 54/100

Livability — Ceres

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #923
• US rank: #24224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ceres, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 579,493 people
• City population: 46,310
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 48,498
• Household income: $58,275
• Rent vs Own: 51.7% rent · 48.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 40% White 13% Asian 5% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 62% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -405.77%
• Current HPI: 360.246
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B