2845 E Hatch Rd #68 · Ceres, CA 95351

$100,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 143 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1970 Average condition $69/sqft · 22% below area Est $129k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.3

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully cared-for modular home in the desirable Voyage Cove community, where pride of ownership and charm shine through every detail. This home offers a bright, open floor plan designed for both comfort and everyday living. Large windows fill the living area with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The spacious kitchen features a convenient breakfast bar, perfect for casual meals or entertaining friends, along with plenty of cabinet space for all your storage needs. Throughout the home, tasteful finishes and custom touches add character and style.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Clubhouse
• Greenbelt views

Tags

• VOYAGE COVE COMMUNITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• GREENBELT VIEWS
• PLAYGROUND ACCESS
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $675 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 3.6% in Ceres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#923 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lucas Elementary (653 students, 76% FRL); Cesar Chavez Junior High (662 students, 83% FRL); Ceres High (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 1,777 students, 83% FRL).
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.93%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,700
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -22.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2845 E Hatch Rd #78	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$67,500	$47	96
2845 E Hatch Rd #84	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$128,000	$89	90
2845 E Hatch Rd #71	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	23mo	$110,000	$76	76
2841 Fowler #37	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$105,000	$73	64
2841 Fowler Rd #111	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,534 (+6%)	1mo	$185,000	$121	61
2841 Fowler Rd #89	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$140,000	$104	60
2841 Fowler Rd #42	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,287 (-11%)	2mo	$145,000	$113	48
2841 Fowler Rd #33	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-13%)	2mo	$145,000	$116	43
2841 Fowler #141	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+12%)	14mo	$185,000	$114	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $26,815
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $78,817
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.1 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $132,500 ($94/sqft)
• Median days on market: 71 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -4.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 95351

• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,729 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $675

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $744	-5% $710	+0% $675	+5% $640	+10% $606
Rent	-10% $538	-5% $607	+0% $675	+5% $743	+10% $812
Rate	-1.0pp $725	-0.5pp $700	base $675	+0.5pp $649	+1.0pp $623

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2808 Canyon Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,495	$1.83	70d	1	0.14mi
2685 Parkway Ceres, CA	2.0	2.0	1150	$795	$0.69	93d	1	0.41mi
1120 Landreth Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1559	$3,395	$2.18	63d	1	0.51mi
2232 Ridgeway Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,295	$1.60	63d	1	0.74mi
2029 Venus Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,500	$1.87	72d	1	0.85mi
2121 Moffett Rd Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	93d	1	0.96mi
1757 Richland Ave Ceres, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,750	$1.79	43d	1	1.47mi
1301 Richland Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,738	$1.91	13d	5	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $100,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $100,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $100,000 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $100,000 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $100,000 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $100,000 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $100,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $100,000 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $100,000 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $100,000 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $100,000 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $100,000 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $100,000 Active 122 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $100,000 Active 120 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $100,000 Active 119 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $100,000 Active 118 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $100,000 Active 117 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $100,000 Active 116 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $100,000 Active 115 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $100,000 Active 114 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $100,000 Active 113 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 112 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 111 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $100,000 Active 110 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 109 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 108 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 107 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 106 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 105 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 104 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $100,000 Active 103 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $100,000 Active 102 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $100,000 Active 101 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $100,000 Active 100 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $100,000 Active 98 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $100,000 Active 96 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $100,000 Active 95 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $100,000 Active 92 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $100,000 Active 91 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $100,000 Active 90 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $100,000 Active 89 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $100,000 Active 87 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $100,000 Active 86 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $100,000 Active 84 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $100,000 Active 83 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 82 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 81 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,660
• − Management: −$1,660
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $6,920
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,661
• After-tax cash flow: $6,440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,200–$21,600 screening

This home is in average condition with cosmetic repairs needed. It offers a bright, open floor plan and is located in a desirable community. Updates to paint, cabinets, and flooring would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Bathtub and fixtures — Signs of wear
• Minor Exterior siding — Aged appearance
• Minor Hardwood flooring — Worn appearance
• Minor Paint — Faded appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and appearance ↑
• Both Replace worn hardwood flooring — New flooring enhances comfort and value ↑
• Both Replace worn exterior siding — Fresh siding improves curb appeal and durability ↑
• Both Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and durability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Virginia Parks Elementary Middle Mae Hensley Junior High High Ceres High F CA #618/1,170 Nat'l #9,639/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ceres Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,178
• Composite: 27.96/100
• National rank: #6858
• State rank: #303 of 517 in CA

D Composite livability gradescore 54/100

Livability — Ceres

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #923
• US rank: #24224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ceres, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 579,493 people
• City population: 46,310
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 48,498
• Household income: $58,275
• Rent vs Own: 51.7% rent · 48.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 40% White 13% Asian 5% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 62% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -405.77%
• Current HPI: 360.246
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B